Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

[BuffaloWeather]

Snowfall depth across NYS. Quite a bit just south of buffalo and the southern tier. Most snow has melt in Syracuse area due to the fluffy aspect of there LES storm compared to Buffalos 5 inches of qpf snow equivalent.

http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/snow_depth.php

[Powderqueen]

Considering the intense winds and cold temps out of the NW, I am surprised we aren't getting more snow out of the lakes right now.

Accumulation is in the forecast, but currently just snow showers in our area.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The Greenland block is the problem. The 8-10 day anamalies show record warmth in Canada and record cold in the eastern US

Hopefully this block will be gone come early january.

Incredible cold in Toronto currently, with a reading of -13C and a windchill of -25! It's ten degrees celcius colder than Montreal, and colder than the overnight low progged for Ottawa!

Interestingly, Joe Bastardi made mention of the December 1992 storm in his video today. That wasn't a cold storm, but dropped close to a foot on Ottawa and 18" in parts of Toronto. That month was quite warm and judging by maps shown in the video, had a similar Greenland block in place. That winter was relatively mild up here until mid January, when the cold and heavy snow really kicked in. February 1993 was the coldest month of that winter.

[DeltaT13]

Hopefully this block will be gone come early january.

Incredible cold in Toronto currently, with a reading of -13C and a windchill of -25! It's ten degrees celcius colder than Montreal, and colder than the overnight low progged for Ottawa!

Interestingly, Joe Bastardi made mention of the December 1992 storm in his video today. That wasn't a cold storm, but dropped close to a foot on Ottawa and 18" in parts of Toronto. That month was quite warm and judging by maps shown in the video, had a similar Greenland block in place. That winter was relatively mild up here until mid January, when the cold and heavy snow really kicked in. February 1993 was the coldest month of that winter.

Its funny to see everyone cursing the block. In years past the -nao was a beautiful thing for us east coasters, it just needs to scale back a little bit. That said, its working fantastic right now... with moderate snow out my window and things looking real good for the next couple of days. Got a fresh half inch in the past 2 hours and things are picking up!

[Organizing Low]

if the latest NAM is to be believed, could be a snowy night/morning up here throughtout eatern ontario/Sw quebec.

2-4 inches general with 6+ in spots near the border.

thats associated with that vorticity that WXcast was talking about

models have been inconsistently developing this for the past couple days as backside snows, just enough consistency to keep you interested but not enough to be confident. id say a general 1-3 inches seems likely.

currently, precip is developing nicely in association with that feature towards NE NY with an area coming in from central ontario, lets see if it continues to get its act together.

[Organizing Low]

latest SREFs also showing a several hour period with a 95-100% probabibility of snow across our entire region, that increases confidence.

[Revracer800]

LES has kicked in here in southern oswego county, has been snowing lightly all afternoon but now it's coming down pretty hard. I would say a good 2-3" so far since noon.

[ayuud]

it's too cold for snow here i think,the flake size are horrible lol.currently 8F with moderate snow since this morning,about 2 inches in the ground

[LakeEffectKing]

LES has kicked in here in southern oswego county, has been snowing lightly all afternoon but now it's coming down pretty hard. I would say a good 2-3" so far since noon.

Jives well with my Father who I just got off the phone with near Constantia.... Sinking south now.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Hard to measure with all the wind and blowing and drifting but theres a solid 2-3 inches here in Eggertsville,NY. NWS now has northern Erie country included in the lake snow advisory for 6-12 inches.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

358 PM EST MON DEC 13 2010

NYZ010-012-140500-

/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0012.101213T2058Z-101214T2300Z/

NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...WARSAW

358 PM EST MON DEC 13 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES...INCLUDING ALL

OF THE BUFFALO NORTH TOWNS.

* TIMING...THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ON

TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW

IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL

BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN

ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

[2Slick]

How you think were going to make out from this one LEK?

I'm not getting TO excited, as I don't want to be letdown, but I think a foot is manageable for us. The flow is different for this one compared to last week, or so I've heard. So the heaviest snows, according to the warning, looks to be south and south-west of the Syracuse area.

Who knows

[Andyace]

I received a dusting today and I am very excited about it. Thank you.

[ayuud]

Hard to measure with all the wind and blowing and drifting but theres a solid 2-3 inches here in Eggertsville,NY. NWS now has northern Erie country included in the lake snow advisory for 6-12 inches.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

358 PM EST MON DEC 13 2010

NYZ010-012-140500-

/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0012.101213T2058Z-101214T2300Z/

NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...WARSAW

358 PM EST MON DEC 13 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES...INCLUDING ALL

OF THE BUFFALO NORTH TOWNS.

* TIMING...THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ON

TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW

IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL

BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN

ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$

[LakeEffectKing]

How you think were going to make out from this one LEK?

I'm not getting TO excited, as I don't want to be letdown, but I think a foot is manageable for us. The flow is different for this one compared to last week, or so I've heard. So the heaviest snows, according to the warning, looks to be south and south-west of the Syracuse area.

Who knows

By Wednesday night, the city should be a few inches either side of 15. With more (possibly to come thru Thursday night)....Areas west of the city, and the hills to the south and southwest, may get to the 20" mark by that time. A little more wind, a little colder will make and with some snow still remaining in the hardest hit parts from last week, should provide for a similar "feel" to last week. One caveat is the flake size, as it MAY be just a bit too cold to grow large dentrites. That'd cut down on the totals by 20-50%....

[ayuud]

By Wednesday night, the city should be a few inches either side of 15. With more (possibly to come thru Thursday night)....Areas west of the city, and the hills to the south and southwest, may get to the 20" mark by that time. A little more wind, a little colder will make and with some snow still remaining in the hardest hit parts from last week, should provide for a similar "feel" to last week. One caveat is the flake size, as it MAY be just a bit too cold to grow large dentrites. That'd cut down on the totals by 20-50%....

i'd be happy if we get a setup like this every week lol

[ontario squalls]

2 inches IMBY today. At least the ground is covered again. Much denser snowpack with the tiny flakes.

[kulaginman]

By Wednesday night, the city should be a few inches either side of 15. With more (possibly to come thru Thursday night)....Areas west of the city, and the hills to the south and southwest, may get to the 20" mark by that time. A little more wind, a little colder will make and with some snow still remaining in the hardest hit parts from last week, should provide for a similar "feel" to last week. One caveat is the flake size, as it MAY be just a bit too cold to grow large dentrites. That'd cut down on the totals by 20-50%....

But it won't settle/sublimate as much either!

[CNYWeather]

I received a dusting today and I am very excited about it. Thank you.

All Hail The Dusting King LOL

[lakeeffectkid383]

The flakes are pretty big here. Actually very big is a good call.

[ayuud]

The flakes are pretty big here. Actually very big is a good call.

lucky,you'd need a magnifying glass to see the flakes down here!

[Andyace]

All Hail The Dusting King LOL

Good one Tony!!!

[Buffalo Bumble]

Light to moderate snow for the last few hours here. Smallish flake size so we're just pushing a couple inches now. Just a fantastic late afternoon/evening with steady snow, temps in the low teens, and brisk winds. Good stuff....

[lakeeffectkid383]

lucky,you'd need a magnifying glass to see the flakes down here!

Now the flakes are HUGE. I'm right in the middle of this band of 24 dbz plus snow, which with the snow as fluffy at it is, its gotta be coming down at close to 2 inches per hour. Snow is just pouring down and when the winds pick up above 20mph there is complete whiteout conditions.

** my actual location is about 1-2 miles WEST of where it says I am on the radar.

[DeltaT13]

"SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE IN FULL GEAR ON

A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS

WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING SLIGHTLY FROM ABOUT A 320 TO

290-300 VECTOR DURING TUES NT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUBTLE

CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LAKE BANDS. THE MAIN HURON BAND

SHOULD LIFT UP INTO CHAUT COUNTY...WHILE A GEORGIAN BAY PLUME SHOULD

HAVE LIFTED TO THE NORTH OF BUF AND MAY BE IMPACTING THE

NIAG/ORLEANS/GENESEE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO MERGE WITH A LK ONTARIO BAND

AS WINDS BACK FURTHER...AND AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY FROM -20C

TO -14C...A MORE ADVANTAGEOUS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH RANGE...AND VERY

LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...A STRONG LK ONTARIO BAND MAY VERY WELL SET

UP TUES NT INTO MUCH OF WED...WITH AREA FROM ABOUT ROCH TO SRN

OSWEGO COUNTY UNDER THE GUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH WARNING THERE

THROUGH WED."

That is some fine winter goodness right there. Nice write up out of Buffalo.

We are unbelievably lucky to have two weeks like this back to back......

[Avid6eek]

22F with light snow falling. The dusting on the ground is more than we had before this storm, so IMO it was a positive event.

[Revracer800]

Still coming down in southern oswego county but not very heavy, I would say a good 4" since around noon. It can keep piling up as I love it i'm ready ride my snowmobile.

[Saggy]

As soon as the sun went down it started coming down really good in Greece.. Snow turned fairly light again right around the Rush exit on 390.. at least people are driving a little slower this time around.

[CSt6804]

Can somebody explain why on the NWS satellite image under water vapor and infrared is showing a void of somesort through central NY that is ever so slowly moving east ? Also the local weather radar for syr and roc seems to be also showing this to a point at least in my untrained eye's. But for the last few hours it has been snowing heavily in the Sodus area. Just curious is all. Thanks

[lakeeffectkid383]

Coming down as hard as it has all day here in Eggertsville,NY, Gotta be snowing at 2 inches per hour right now. Complete whiteout. 7 degrees here. 23mph NNW winds making a windchill of -14 degrees... 4 inches has fallen so far today but theres probally closer to 3 on the ground as of 6:30. Hard to measure though with the winds. Havn't felt a day this wintry in a LONG time =]

[Saggy]

Can somebody explain why on the NWS satellite image under water vapor and infrared is showing a void of somesort through central NY that is ever so slowly moving east ? Also the local weather radar for syr and roc seems to be also showing this to a point at least in my untrained eye's. But for the last few hours it has been snowing heavily in the Sodus area. Just curious is all. Thanks

From Kulaginman in another thread:

This will be extremely low density snow with SW ratios probably at/above 30:1 which will allow for 1-2"/hr snowfall rates in narrow bands that will look extremely unimpressive on radar. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if radar simply doesn't pick up on a lot of these bands due to their extremely shallow nature.

Hope that is what you are talking about?