Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,597
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    DAinDC
    Newest Member
    DAinDC
    Joined

Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

One of the local tv mets(not Andy) was saying it looks like a rain/snow mess for next weeks storm.I am hoping GFL is going to stay all snow.

Its too early to talk about ptype though its possible snow to mix even rain for Albany and points south and east is possible. MV the Upper HV and 'Dacks could be mostly frozen or freezing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

it looks to me like this particular plume is on life support here now. Connection with the lake tenuous now and generally drifting south. So I measured out back and put it in the books as 3" in the sheltered area. Elsewhere it's blown all over so one could never know.

-SN and 19F.

Maybe more later....

I should, I know. I hope, too. I injured my wrist and hand so typing is a painful chore but I will after I take my next dose of meds! :thumbsup::drunk:

Sorry to hear about your wrist. :arrowhead: No injuries here, but I have been afflicted with a very nasty bug, fever, etc... Finally think I am on the mend now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

it looks to me like this particular plume is on life support here now. Connection with the lake tenuous now and generally drifting south. So I measured out back and put it in the books as 3" in the sheltered area. Elsewhere it's blown all over so one could never know.

-SN and 19F.

Maybe more later....

Sorry to hear about your wrist. :arrowhead: No injuries here, but I have been afflicted with a very nasty bug, fever, etc... Finally think I am on the mend now.

I have the bug too much of the past month. Hopefully its behind me now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OL, I was lost...I had prepared myself mentally for a winter without you guys....oh the power of google!!! . I can't see any maps as I'm on my iPhone....how are we looking for Sunday's storm?

about a foot on the GFS 12z with strong winds

Lake ontario plain gets pummeled!!!!

KROC gets hammered......ahhh Flurries where are you???:lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the second retrograde low for tonight into tomorrow is going to be interesting

the core slides across quebec city as they have a WSW up there.

but the US models are painting a very white picture with several inches of snow falling in montreal and the border region and even 2+ back through the ottawa valley / NNY

given the retro flow, surprises (good or bad) are very possible

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And then theres this thing for this weekend =]

If this verified this would be an easy 1-3 feet of snow for BUF northward =]

This would make history IF, (see thats a BIG IF) it verified.

This would make the situation in south Buffalo,Lackawanna, Lancaster, Depew, West Seneca and Alden even worse. Theres already 40 inches on the ground there with piles of 10 feet frequent. You dump another 20-30 inches on top of that you have a disaster.

post-1351-0-71606900-1291655513.gif

post-1351-0-99374200-1291655521.gif

post-1351-0-49743800-1291655535.gif

post-1351-0-85181100-1291655561.gif

post-1351-0-42818100-1291655631.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That 12Z GFS is severe weather porn for CNY/WNY. No great shakes to be in the bullseye this far out, but man is that fun to look at...

We probably want the westward trend to stop now, or we could have a lakes cutter on the models by tomorrow...

Yes indeed. Because if that verified I would have a solid 30 inches on the ground in eggertsville by early next week and places like West Seneca,South Buffalo, Lancaster and Depew would have close to 60 inches =]
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That 12Z GFS is severe weather porn for CNY/WNY. No great shakes to be in the bullseye this far out, but man is that fun to look at...

We probably want the westward trend to stop now, or we could have a lakes cutter on the models by tomorrow...

SInce it will not, lets start talking about it now!

No in all seriousness can't we all agree that any speculation as to this storm is premature. I agree the conditions are favorable for energy migrating eastward to intensify along a frontal zone somehwere near the southern Apps. beyond that its far too early to tell future path. Heck until I see otherwise I think Nina, plus the location progged to be the step off point for cyclogenesis = lakes cutter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Devin

it actually shows 38inches of snow when its all done lol http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_kbuf.dat thats crazy lol :arrowhead:

101212/2100Z 153 03012KT 30.0F SNOW 18:1| 7.0|| 17:1|15.6

IDK. 7 inches of snow in a 3 hour period with a 2m temp of 30 degrees and an 18:1 snow ratio? If there was an emoticon for "HA!- BULLSH#T" I'd use it here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

enjoy the snow guys :thumbsup: were getting screwed here in albany with just a dusting but what new. reminds me of early january last year just not as intense. Looks like we wont be seeing any significant snows for quite a while here in the lower elevations of eastern new york :thumbsdown:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Devin the snow has compacted down here. We have around 15-20 inches of snow after the compacting. And the ratios were 10:1 or less with that last LES storm. Eggertsville and points north will have 4-5 inches once that fluffy stuff compacts. But it is an interesting storm to watch, but highly unlikely to materialize as GFS that far out is dreaming. Once Thursday comes, we will have a better handle on it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Devin the snow has compacted down here. We have around 15-20 inches of snow after the compacting. And the ratios were 10:1 or less with that last LES storm. Eggertsville and points north will have 4-5 inches once that fluffy stuff compacts. But it is an interesting storm to watch, but highly unlikely to materialize as GFS that far out is dreaming. Once Thursday comes, we will have a better handle on it.

Yes I know =]
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Me and my shadow..........My shadow and me.................:arrowhead:

No crap...though may get lucky overnight.

Speaking of shadow re the 12-14th event a verbatim interpretation of GFS and strong suggestive from EC could be a lot of shadowing going on...giving way to brief period of mod-heavy precip in strong WAA and isentropic lift on "front" side of storm followed by the "dry-slot" from hell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...