Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

[Andyace]

Picked up an inch so far today, things are lookin up!

[swva]

What does the longer range look like on the Euro? 12z GFS looks like something of interest in the Dec. 18-21 range. Looks like a low sits over the lakes for a few days. I would think that would mean lots of LES. Looks like a weird setup though. Too far out to analyze too much, but curious as to what other long range models are doing.

[Andyace]

Ya like that might verify lol

[Organizing Low]

Yeah, you are in a little better position than us down here. Just a shift of 50 more miles to the south (or 6 hours quicker in movement) to the shortwave, and the low won't cut as quickly to the north.

im not personally in a good position, as i am in montreal and it surely will be some frozen to rain/dryslot with little to nothing on the backside likely. at this time, i dont see anyway around it, as that is a nasty warm tongue coming up from the SE.....

my parents who live in ottawa are in a better position if things break right.

[Organizing Low]

Just curious... Why is Canada mentioned in a Ny Pa thread?

aside from the funny answers, and the fact that we DO oblige LEK with talk in inches and feet....we are here for his personal laughs of course

but seriously, i dont know how many people are posting from NNY, you know, like people north of ART on that final desolate stretch of I-81....anyways, my point being that the weather in ottawa and montreal less than 50 miles from the border is similar most to that part of NNY and VT....it really is one and of the same country if you've ever done the drive, in the summer or winter.

depedning on the storm, i either post here or in the Central forum, esp if the storm is bringing mixed/rain to NY....generally those storms bring some snow somewhere in the lakes and originate from the Midwest, and i dont like to go on and on about frozen precip when most people in this thread are from upstate and may be getting the shaft. but i know there are a lot of lurkers who only read the upstate thread since climo wise, it makes the most sense, so i will still make an occasional post here, such as with this storm.....and the central threads are superthreads and encompass a huge region, so its harder to sort through the debris.

but it depends on the winter, for example last year i dont think i posted at all in the central forum, because it was an east coast winter, and thats when our weather up here is a near perfect match with yours....see last year. my favorite storms to track are by far east coast storms, i am still waiting for when we can all get whacked good witgh pure powder from a raging nor'easter....that will be fun times.

[2Slick]

THEN...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOMEPOSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTINDICATIONS SUGGEST A SIMILAR SETUP TO THE RECORD SETTING LAKEEFFECT SNOW EVENT THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS WEEK. HEAVY SNOWSWILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTINGTHROUGH THURSDAY. ANY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATEHAZARDOUS AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ALONG THE NEW YORK THRUWAY AND U.S.ROUTE 20...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE NETWORKS AROUND METROSYRACUSE.

Lets do this

[Tornado Girl]

aside from the funny answers, and the fact that we DO oblige LEK with talk in inches and feet....we are here for his personal laughs of course

but seriously, i dont know how many people are posting from NNY, you know, like people north of ART on that final desolate stretch of I-81....anyways, my point being that the weather in ottawa and montreal less than 50 miles from the border is similar most to that part of NNY and VT....it really is one and of the same country if you've ever done the drive, in the summer or winter.

depedning on the storm, i either post here or in the Central forum, esp if the storm is bringing mixed/rain to NY....generally those storms bring some snow somewhere in the lakes and originate from the Midwest, and i dont like to go on and on about frozen precip when most people in this thread are from upstate and may be getting the shaft. but i know there are a lot of lurkers who only read the upstate thread since climo wise, it makes the most sense, so i will still make an occasional post here, such as with this storm.....and the central threads are superthreads and encompass a huge region, so its harder to sort through the debris.

but it depends on the winter, for example last year i dont think i posted at all in the central forum, because it was an east coast winter, and thats when our weather up here is a near perfect match with yours....see last year. my favorite storms to track are by far east coast storms, i am still waiting for when we can all get whacked good witgh pure powder from a raging nor'easter....that will be fun times.

I'm not too far south of ART

Ensembles from HPC NOAA

[Organizing Low]

I'm not too far south of ART

Ensembles from HPC NOAA

so much for that secondary

where you at?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

the euro has trended somewhat towards the ukie

not good enough for most but puts ottawa right on the edge of being in the game for at least all frozen precip

I noticed that EC is calling for "snow or freezing rain" in Ottawa. Perhaps they're trying to cover all their bases after what happened in Montreal this past week?

[ontario squalls]

Just curious... Why is Canada mentioned in a Ny Pa thread?

Ottawa is the same distance from me as Binghamton and the high peaks. I see no reason for Canada to not be mentioned.

Got an inch from that little clipper.

[Tornado Girl]

so much for that secondary

where you at?

A few miles south of Watertown

[Ottawa Blizzard]

0z GFS has shifted the low ever so slightly south. Perhaps the trend is our friend?

[Sub_Zero]

0z GFS has shifted the low ever so slightly south. Perhaps the trend is our friend?

I might drive up to Foymount for this one. it's about an hour and a bit drive due west from here....high elevation (1,380 feet ), they are calling for 15+ inches there

[LakeEffectKing]

12z NAM has been ever so slightly trending (and there is a hint of the same feature on the 00z GGEM) of a slightly stronger secondary forming near the tri-state area, which builds an area of precip back into the colder air toward the I81 corridor. ATT, that solution might generate a 1-2" backend snow before the dry air works in for 12 hours or so, and then the LES (which still appears to be trending a bit weaker and shorter in duration, with each run, IMO).

Awaiting the GFS to see if there is a bit more evidence of this stronger wave forming.....

[Organizing Low]

the backdoor cold front has just passed through ottawa with a windhshift from SW to WNW and the temp has fallen back 1C to an even freezing

[West Point, NY]

12z NAM has been ever so slightly trending (and there is a hint of the same feature on the 00z GGEM) of a slightly stronger secondary forming near the tri-state area, which builds an area of precip back into the colder air toward the I81 corridor. ATT, that solution might generate a 1-2" backend snow before the dry air works in for 12 hours or so, and then the LES (which still appears to be trending a bit weaker and shorter in duration, with each run, IMO).

Awaiting the GFS to see if there is a bit more evidence of this stronger wave forming.....

That makes sense to me just based on the on the consolidated structure of the moisture in NC. I have a hard time believing that would not become it's own entity............sooner than later IMHO. Going to Lk. Placid now for the Holiday Stroll with the family. At least it's not brutal out today like it's been recently.

[Organizing Low]

12z NAM has been ever so slightly trending (and there is a hint of the same feature on the 00z GGEM) of a slightly stronger secondary forming near the tri-state area, which builds an area of precip back into the colder air toward the I81 corridor. ATT, that solution might generate a 1-2" backend snow before the dry air works in for 12 hours or so, and then the LES (which still appears to be trending a bit weaker and shorter in duration, with each run, IMO).

Awaiting the GFS to see if there is a bit more evidence of this stronger wave forming.....

looks as though the RGEM has gone the route of a stronger secondary also at 12z, with definite backside snow through CNY/eastern ontario

[Ottawa Blizzard]

looks as though the RGEM has gone the route of a stronger secondary also at 12z, with definite backside snow through CNY/eastern ontario

It looks like we're at least going to start out as snow/ie pellets. Roads could deffinately be a mess on Sunday evening

[Ottawa Blizzard]

looks as though the RGEM has gone the route of a stronger secondary also at 12z, with definite backside snow through CNY/eastern ontario

How cold do you see it getting early next week. I had been expecting (hoping) for a high in the upper single digets on at least one day, but the models seem to have backed off from that kind of cold unless I'm reading them wrong.

[Organizing Low]

How cold do you see it getting early next week. I had been expecting (hoping) for a high in the upper single digets on at least one day, but the models seem to have backed off from that kind of cold unless I'm reading them wrong.

it should be chilly, i dont think the cold will be as impressive as previously thoguht, but at the same time it looks like sneaky cold pattern to me.

i could see a day next week where it struggles to reach 10F but overall i think most likely will be days in the lower double digits.

tuesday and wednesday will be blustery and cold.

[FEFD17]

It has warmed up from previous mornings.GFL showing 32 now.Bringing a raincoat for this next storm and a parka for after it's over is really depressing.

[ayuud]

12z nam brings the -20 down to our region

[Stormtracker81]

this board is too quiet

[Couchsachraga]

That's because we're all sulking about a significant snow storm turned rain storm

Though i like a good heavy downpour (or ANY interesting weather), I must admit I was hoping for a good thumping of snow this go-around.

I'm hoping Andy posts his latest thoughts at some point, even if he agrees it's mostly rain. I'm curious to hear how folks think the storm will evolve the next 48 hours, and see what actually takes place.

[Docawesome]

Well the 12z euro keeps some sort of hope for Ottawa. Not much but it looks better than the GFS or NAM in terms of 850 temps. If there's one model I trust its the euro. Reminds of 12/08. Similar setup but the Ottawa valley's ability to hold on to cold air turned a 1-2 inch snow/mix/frzra into an 8 inch storm. We'll see. Not a good start to winter for our region though. What is wrong with La Nina? Its December and our snow pack is 1 inch! I'm going to keep an eye on that 300 hr 12/24 GFS.

Atleast my Patriots get to play the Bears in snow and wind. And my satellite signal could be lost due to frzra.

Anyone know why the forum won't allow me to log in using my iphone?

[LakeEffectKing]

Well the 12z euro keeps some sort of hope for Ottawa. Not much but it looks better than the GFS or NAM in terms of 850 temps. If there's one model I trust its the euro. Reminds of 12/08. Similar setup but the Ottawa valley's ability to hold on to cold air turned a 1-2 inch snow/mix/frzra into an 8 inch storm. We'll see. Not a good start to winter for our region though. What is wrong with La Nina? Its December and our snow pack is 1 inch! I'm going to keep an eye on that 300 hr 12/24 GFS.

Atleast my Patriots get to play the Bears in snow and wind. And my satellite signal could be lost due to frzra.

Anyone know why the forum won't allow me to log in using my iphone?

Euro also has a nice EC storm at hour 192-216....:

[Wx4cast]

That's because we're all sulking about a significant snow storm turned rain storm

Though i like a good heavy downpour (or ANY interesting weather), I must admit I was hoping for a good thumping of snow this go-around.

I'm hoping Andy posts his latest thoughts at some point, even if he agrees it's mostly rain. I'm curious to hear how folks think the storm will evolve the next 48 hours, and see what actually takes place.

Sorry if they seem cryptic or too brief but I'm actually quite busy this weekend but anyway here's what I wrote to West Mtn earlier today:

Well the arctic boundary WAS of interest. Cap and I were concerned that the models MAY have been underdoing things wrt it but now this a mute point.

Some ice/mix to start then rain...dry slot from hell so right now I think backlash changeover here minimal; as for the cold blast its also lessened one day perhaps Tuesday/Tues night then moderate slightly below normal cold thereafter.

I am a bit concerned though for late Monday/Monday evening as combo of vorticity coming up in the trough fom the south may combine with cold pool aloft to generate some periods of convective snow but probably won't know if this will materialize until Sunday night or even Monday morning. GFS has been indicating this possibility as has EC and UK at times.

As for QPF going down makes sense to me. Influx of moisture is not that high and the best is to our east and west with the primary and weak secondary. That is, we (ENY/WNE) are in the screw zone between the systems. Looking at isentropic surfaces and moisture/lift I am not all that impressed. So even the rain may not be as heavy as the 1-2 inches that KALY mentioned in their morning AFD.

[LakeEffectKing]

Sorry if they seem cryptic or too brief but I'm actually quite busy this weekend but anyway here's what I wrote to West Mtn earlier today:

Well the arctic boundary WAS of interest. Cap and I were concerned that the models MAY have been underdoing things wrt it but now this a mute point.

Some ice/mix to start then rain...dry slot from hell so right now I think backlash changeover here minimal; as for the cold blast its also lessened one day perhaps Tuesday/Tues night then moderate slightly below normal cold thereafter.

I am a bit concerned though for late Monday/Monday evening as combo of vorticity coming up in the trough fom the south may combine with cold pool aloft to generate some periods of convective snow but probably won't know if this will materialize until Sunday night or even Monday morning. GFS has been indicating this possibility as has EC and UK at times.

As for QPF going down makes sense to me. Influx of moisture is not that high and the best is to our east and west with the primary and weak secondary. That is, we (ENY/WNE) are in the screw zone between the systems. Looking at isentropic surfaces and moisture/lift I am not all that impressed. So even the rain may not be as heavy as the 1-2 inches that KALY mentioned in their morning AFD.

If NAM has any extra value in it's finer resolution, it MAY be showing it now. 18z, hour 42 really puts an emphasis on a late blooming secondary (which was there at 12z as I noted in an earlier post), enough so now, that E/C NY has rain taper for a few hours...cold air moves in, and a slug of moisture (snow) comes in earnest to slap a few inches for some lucky ones:

Note how we have one consolidated LP near NYC.....much different than the globals consolidation near BTV.....

[Couchsachraga]

Thank you for your thoughts Andy! I in no way meant to "call you out", as I know you have far more going on in life than posting here .

To those of us in the "upper hudson valley" / SE / SECentral Adirondacks you are by far the best resource

We'll see what the next few days bring. Being dry slotted for once may not be so bad.

[CNYWxGuy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

340 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THAT SAID...FEEL A FEW HRS OF FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS AND AS A RESULT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER EXTENSIVE COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. HAVE SPLIT THIS UP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE...AND WILL HOLD ON TO FLAGS THE LONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE COLD AIR TYPICALLY TAKES THE LONGEST TIME TO ERODE. IN ALL...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE (CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH) ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS AS WELL AS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. IMPACTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MARGINAL OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE THE AFTERNOON SHIFT CONTINUE TO MONITOR.