LakeEffectKing Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Henry Margusity seems to still think the initial low will track across the Ohio valley. He seems to like the UKmet solution. Here's his video from the free site. http://www.accuweath...crazy-crazy.asp LOL, at Henry's last few sentences....to just throw out there that the next round of LES will be 'worse' than this past round is a bit of hype....seeing as the snowgrowth region will be out of sync with the moisture (at least as modeled ATT) and the fetch may be just a tad less conductive for UL connections (though this is a tough one). We could very well have heavy snow up this way for long periods over several days, but I'd envision much smaller flake size, resulting in no more than 1/2"/hr. stuff. Hope that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 BTW, I have an aside here....has anyone ever gotten so mad at yourself that you just start going ape s*#t? I just spilled a nice fresh cup of coffee (the beverage choice of late night model watching weenies!). Not only did I knock it off the computer desk, but as it was falling, I tried (instinctively) to catch it, which sent it spinning and flying all over the room, computer, me, cat, area rug, steeler terrible towel, printer, printer paper, monitor, modem, etc...... I kinda sounded like this: ....that sucked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Can any meteorologist chime in on their thinking for BUF right now? Devin, Just too early to tell. With the models all over the place, and a very anomolous pattern (super strong blocking that will break down quickly) it's just a wait and see for a couple more runs to get a bit more consensus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Can any meteorologist chime in on their thinking for BUF right now? I'm thinking BUF will begin as rain with this storm...either late Saturday night or very early Sunday morning...although there could be some pockets of -fzra south/east of BUF if the precip moves in a few hours ahead of schedule. But through midday Sunday, this probably won't be anything to write home about in western New York. I expect dramatic changes to begin taking place Sunday afternoon. As the primary low begins to fill/occlude over lower Michigan or southern Ontario...a secondary low will likely form along the triple point, probably somewhere in the vicinity of the lower Susquehanna Valley (eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, southeast PA). A deformation zone will rapidly blossom to the north/west of the developing surface low...and heavy precip banding may occur due to frontogenesis within the deformation zone. As UVV's increase within this blossoming area of precip, dynamic/diabatic cooling will likely result in a rapid changeover from rain to snow...and I wouldn't be surprised if we hear reports of thundersnow occurring in spots. The real question is...where does this occur?? The 00z WRF seems to like the region bounded by ELZ-ROC to the west...and ELM-SYR-MSS to the east...for this potential 4-6hr blitz of RA to +SN Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This could easily shift farther east/west as we approach the event - and as George mentioned, there is tremendous uncertainty and a lot of spread among the models and their respective ensembles at the moment. I certainly would not take the 00z WRF at face value, especially since we are more than 60 hours away from the event right now. Even if BUF misses out on the real heavy stuff, it still looks like rain will change to snow by late Sunday with periods of snow continuing into at least Monday morning (and possibly well beyond) on an increasingly gusty NW wind. As arctic air begins to infiltrate the region, lake enhancement will obviously come into play...with NW winds favoring the higher terrain well south of the city. I think Monday could end up being a very rough day in some of the same places that got hammered this past week...with periods of snow/blowing snow and temps holding steady or slowly falling through the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Who on the board is close to Redfield? Tornado Girl? Just curious how much snow is on the ground since Sunday. Hey Robbie - from what I've heard, Redfield has about 2' on the ground. The snowmobile club just started running their groomers yesterday. As usual, accumulations were very location specific. Heard Lacona received 47" and link/pics below are on the Orwell sde of the reservoir, south side http://trailconditions.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15698 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Thank you kulaginman and LEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'm thinking BUF will begin as rain with this storm...either late Saturday night or very early Sunday morning...although there could be some pockets of -fzra south/east of BUF if the precip moves in a few hours ahead of schedule. But through midday Sunday, this probably won't be anything to write home about in western New York. I expect dramatic changes to begin taking place Sunday afternoon. As the primary low begins to fill/occlude over lower Michigan or southern Ontario...a secondary low will likely form along the triple point, probably somewhere in the vicinity of the lower Susquehanna Valley (eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, southeast PA). A deformation zone will rapidly blossom to the north/west of the developing surface low...and heavy precip banding may occur due to frontogenesis within the deformation zone. As UVV's increase within this blossoming area of precip, dynamic/diabatic cooling will likely result in a rapid changeover from rain to snow...and I wouldn't be surprised if we hear reports of thundersnow occurring in spots. The real question is...where does this occur?? The 00z WRF seems to like the region bounded by ELZ-ROC to the west...and ELM-SYR-MSS to the east...for this potential 4-6hr blitz of RA to +SN Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This could easily shift farther east/west as we approach the event - and as George mentioned, there is tremendous uncertainty and a lot of spread among the models and their respective ensembles at the moment. I certainly would not take the 00z WRF at face value, especially since we are more than 60 hours away from the event right now. Even if BUF misses out on the real heavy stuff, it still looks like rain will change to snow by late Sunday with periods of snow continuing into at least Monday morning (and possibly well beyond) on an increasingly gusty NW wind. As arctic air begins to infiltrate the region, lake enhancement will obviously come into play...with NW winds favoring the higher terrain well south of the city. I think Monday could end up being a very rough day in some of the same places that got hammered this past week...with periods of snow/blowing snow and temps holding steady or slowly falling through the teens. I would be very interested in hearing what you think Ottawa will get out of this storm. Right now, it's looking like 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 if the storm passes over ottawa as most models are now showing, the key is going to be if any sort of arctic air gets dragged down behind the clipper tomorrow. if not, with rotting air in place.....it will be game-set-match, with snow->mix-> rain the other option is the secondary forming a touch further east, but the models arent budging right now. montreal is pretty much cooked already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 if the storm passes over ottawa as most models are now showing, the key is going to be if any sort of arctic air gets dragged down behind the clipper tomorrow. if not, with rotting air in place.....it will be game-set-match, with snow->mix-> rain the other option is the secondary forming a touch further east, but the models arent budging right now. montreal is pretty much cooked already. literally and figuratively. As I posted in the central forum, i can't help but wonder if the winter pattern is showing itself. What a bust this is. Temps in the low single digets tonight, followed by rain, followed by temps dropping below zero F next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 As i also posted in the central regional forum, massive bust for accuweather, and JB/margusity in particular. I get the impression their superiors are none too happy with them, if Bastradi's facial expression in his video this morning was any indication. I mean, who cares if margusity busts - people can watch his forecasts for free. But people pay to watch Bastardi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 You are going to do lot better than you think you will (IMHO) It'll be really interesting to see what effect the arctic cold rushing into the storm will have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I have been assuming there would be a secondary, but looking at the new GFS and GGEM where is the secondary? You see a little bagginess suggestive of where the seconday may be forming, but then jump to the next panels and it just seems like the primary plowed right along down the St. Lawrence Seaway and deepened. if the storm passes over ottawa as most models are now showing, the key is going to be if any sort of arctic air gets dragged down behind the clipper tomorrow. if not, with rotting air in place.....it will be game-set-match, with snow->mix-> rain the other option is the secondary forming a touch further east, but the models arent budging right now. montreal is pretty much cooked already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Regardless of the model, a wind advisory is nearly certain with a HWW a decent possibility, so that already pleases me. There are very strong dynamics with this system...and as stated by many, the storm looks baggy, and thus a sfc low much further south is still possible which changes everything. Gotta love a nice baggy system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I have been assuming there would be a secondary, but looking at the new GFS and GGEM where is the secondary? You see a little bagginess suggestive of where the seconday may be forming, but then jump to the next panels and it just seems like the primary plowed right along down the St. Lawrence Seaway and deepened. Maybe the model Logan? from the NWS AFD.I am TOTALLY guessing.I am thinking by the reading I have been doing,this is going to be a washout.We shall see I am hoping for good news but planning on bringing my raincoat to work Sunday and Monday. THE 12Z ECMWF ALLOWS FOR COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL TRACKS THE RESULTANT LOW NORTHWARD ACROSS OR JUST W OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...SEVERAL 12Z/GEFS MEMBERS HINT AT AN EVEN GREATER SEPARATION OF THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY...WITH A SECOND...MORE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING MON INTO TUE. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TO FRUITION...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION MON-MON NT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Actually there could be ice where you are in the Upper Hudson Valley. By Monday morning bring the parka....we'll be back into the arctic air regardless of what transpires. Maybe the model Logan? from the NWS AFD.I am TOTALLY guessing.I am thinking by the reading I have been doing,this is going to be a washout.We shall see I am hoping for good news but planning on bringing my raincoat to work Sunday and Monday. THE 12Z ECMWF ALLOWS FOR COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL TRACKS THE RESULTANT LOW NORTHWARD ACROSS OR JUST W OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...SEVERAL 12Z/GEFS MEMBERS HINT AT AN EVEN GREATER SEPARATION OF THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY...WITH A SECOND...MORE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING MON INTO TUE. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TO FRUITION...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION MON-MON NT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut1024 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Your time will come...there is still 4-5 months of Winter left to go. We're almost half way through Dec. so that's 4 months of winter, around these parts, winter's' over by April..Thank God.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteo Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 ALB NWS calling for 1-3" QPF with only slight amount as snow. Ground is so hard you could bend a nail in it, so they're calling for localized flooding and ponding so glad I put my winter tires on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Regardless of the model, a wind advisory is nearly certain with a HWW a decent possibility, so that already pleases me. There are very strong dynamics with this system...and as stated by many, the storm looks baggy, and thus a sfc low much further south is still possible which changes everything. Gotta love a nice baggy system... I'm not totally convinced of the high wind threat with this system. A primary low that is occluding/filling as it passes to the N/W of the region isn't really all that conducive to high winds...and if a secondary low develops (and remains on the weak side) there really won't be a good isallobaric component, IMO. Western NY probably has a better chance of advisory criteria winds than anyone else (except perhaps the higher terrain of eastern NY/New England with the easterly LLJ on Sunday)...but I'm not convinced at the moment. Tricky system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealeDeal Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The infamous clip of Matt DiNardo. That clip actually didn't go on air, they will taping a tease for the 10pm news on Fox. Needless to say, it is one of the infamous tapes here at WKTV. BTW, I have an aside here....has anyone ever gotten so mad at yourself that you just start going ape s*#t? I just spilled a nice fresh cup of coffee (the beverage choice of late night model watching weenies!). Not only did I knock it off the computer desk, but as it was falling, I tried (instinctively) to catch it, which sent it spinning and flying all over the room, computer, me, cat, area rug, steeler terrible towel, printer, printer paper, monitor, modem, etc...... I kinda sounded like this: ....that sucked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 NWS saying in their AFD that 850 temps behind the storm won’t be as cold as originally forecasted (-20 to -24). They are saying now they will be more like -16 to -18 which ironically is better for lake effect. They're thinking next week could be another repeat of this week. Look out Randolph!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 -4.0° this morning. Nice wasted cold before the rain on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Thanks! I am heading back up a week from Saturday and will be there for most of the next 2 weeks except for Christmas Eve and Day. Hope we can get some west winds flowing off the lakes during that time. 2' is not bad. There was only 3 or 4" on the ground when I left on Sunday. Hey Robbie - from what I've heard, Redfield has about 2' on the ground. The snowmobile club just started running their groomers yesterday. As usual, accumulations were very location specific. Heard Lacona received 47" and link/pics below are on the Orwell sde of the reservoir, south side http://trailconditio...ead.php?t=15698 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yup... Considering the ground here is barely covered it will take about an hour and it will be gone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yup... Considering the ground here is barely covered it will take about an hour and it will be gone here. You actually have a nice start to the trails there. Only ~3" at Trackside's clubhouse, up to 5" or 6" at the shootout. We took the groomer up the trail (as the ranger had a problem) clearing trees and broke through some iced over spots, but the water underneath had drained. If you got a foot of (real) snow I think the trails would be real nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 My low here at the northwest corner of the Helderbergs was -3F. That must be the first sub zero since well back into February at least. -4.0° this morning. Nice wasted cold before the rain on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 This really is turning into a write-off. Even the cold behind the system doesn't look as impressive. EC calling for highs around 20F on both Tuesday and Wednesday. When you consider that temps were originally forecast to drop through the teens behind the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'm not totally convinced of the high wind threat with this system. A primary low that is occluding/filling as it passes to the N/W of the region isn't really all that conducive to high winds...and if a secondary low develops (and remains on the weak side) there really won't be a good isallobaric component, IMO. Western NY probably has a better chance of advisory criteria winds than anyone else (except perhaps the higher terrain of eastern NY/New England with the easterly LLJ on Sunday)...but I'm not convinced at the moment. Tricky system! I agree, it just seems like a subtle change in where the surface low rapidly forms and deepens could make a big difference right now. The right ingredients are around, just not in sync. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I agree, it just seems like a subtle change in where the surface low rapidly forms and deepens could make a big difference right now. The right ingredients are around, just not in sync. We really need to get better production out of NCEP. They say that the GFS is better, it does not have the cold bias, etc. And what happens? The FIRST real test of the season and the same old BS. Maybe it's time we import some mets from China and India, like we have with doctors. Maybe they have some better ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 imagine if there was a subtle shift east with the secondary low? It might make all the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 all rain now on GFS, backlash snow is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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