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Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

Couchsachraga

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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haha yeah

from Wiki:

Rideau Canal passing through central Ottawa becomes officially the world's largest skating rink.[10] The cleared length is 7.8 kilometres (4.8 miles) and has the equivalent surface area of 90 Olympic hockey rinks. It runs from the Hartwell locks at Carleton University to the locks between the Parliament Buildings and the Château Laurier, including Dow's Lake in between. It serves as a popular tourist attraction and recreational area and is also the focus of the Winterlude festival (1.6 million visitors in 2007) in Ottawa. Beaver Tails, a fried dough pastry, are sold along with other snacks and beverages, in kiosks on the skateway.

I figured it was something like this, and attracting 1.6 million visitors is a pretty big deal. I'm pretty sure they probably sell other things besides beaver tails, haha...wiki has strange little facts sometimes..

More importantly, Is there a beer tent?

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

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I am still liking what I see in the ensemble data for the EC and GFS. In spite of the GEFS 06z run having a hiccup of warmth for the HV east the 12z GEFS is now back to cold and like the 12z UK faster on the arctic boundary. As a matter of fact to me it looks like the 12z GEFS data brings the arctic air boundary to a BUF-Mohawk Valley-MVL line by around 1pm Sunday then stalls it.

The 12z GEFS keeps most of ENY from N &W of POU < 0C at both 925 and 850 hPa Sunday thru Monday.

Ptype probs of rain and and snow are about equal in chance of occurrence only briefly around 4-7pm from Albany south and east in spite of 925 and 850 temps <0C so sleet may be the more probable p-type this time.

Waiting for all of the 18z GEFS to come in before I start to lean one way or another.

EDIT: 18z GEFS basically no change to the "cold" scenario. If anything the ensemble mean LP may be a bit east more towards the Ct RV.

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snywx

snywx

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I am still liking what I see in the ensemble data for the EC and GFS. In spite of the GEFS 06z run having a hiccup of warmth for the HV east the 12z GEFS is now back to cold and like the 12z UK faster on the arctic boundary. As a matter of fact to me it looks like the 12z GEFS data brings the arctic air boundary to a BUF-Mohawk Valley-MVL line by around 1pm Sunday then stalls it.

The 12z GEFS keeps most of ENY from N &W of POU < 0C at both 925 and 850 hPa Sunday thru Monday.

Ptype probs of rain and and snow are about equal in chance of occurrence only briefly around 4-7pm from Albany south and east in spite of 925 and 850 temps <0C so sleet may be the more probable p-type this time.

Waiting for all of the 18z GEFS to come in before I start to lean one way or another.

EDIT: 18z GEFS basically no change to the "cold" scenario. If anything the ensemble mean LP may be a bit east more towards the Ct RV.

Even though im alittle south of POU I just hope my longitude/elevation can help out if any..

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

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Even though im alittle south of POU I just hope my longitude/elevation can help out if any..

I think you will go to a cold rain or rain sleet unfortunately. My personal experience is with alow tracking over WNE (like I think and ensemble data is indicating) will probably result in a warm wedge aloft above 700 hPa.

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snywx

snywx

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I think you will go to a cold rain or rain sleet unfortunately. My personal experience is with alow tracking over WNE (like I think and ensemble data is indicating) will probably result in a warm wedge aloft above 700 hPa.

Whats interesting is that we normally do quite well with systems tracking through NE.. I guess it all depends on trajectory and existing air prior to storm arrival..

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snywx

snywx

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The southerly winds will be moving in the warm air. Hope we have some CAD stick around for some time. It will be ZR better than RA.

I guess Im being alittle more optimistic about a earlier secondary low forming on the coast riding up through NE.. If thats the case then we might be able to limit the amount of southerly winds and stay on the frozen side :)

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hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

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I guess Im being alittle more optimistic about a earlier secondary low forming on the coast riding up through NE.. If thats the case then we might be able to limit the amount of southerly winds and stay on the frozen side :)

That would be a good thing. Nothing is set in stone yet. Let's see what happens. It might be real close and come down to "nowcasting" :popcorn: . The folks in the Lake effect areas will make out great next week!:snowman:

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snywx

snywx

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That would be a good thing. Nothing is set in stone yet. Let's see what happens. It might be real close and come down to "nowcasting" :popcorn: . The folks in the Lake effect areas will make out great next week!:snowman:

They are having a historic month up there! I think its possible we can squeeze out 2 or 3" either on the front or back end.. Time will tell I guess..

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
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Here's hoping you're right!

I concur with Andy....I really think this is going to "come together" better than what people are thinking as of now. A dieing storm well to the west that occludes and slows down....and then tremendous amplification of the trough underneath it, will no doubt produce a bonified nor'easter...not a "wavy" front. And with our fresh snowpack around the lakes, and weak midlevel flow around the primary (as long as it is a good distance west and doesn't move too far into the lakes) should keep the majority of our region sufficiently cool enough to prevent much of a change over....The UK really looks like a sensible solution.....and I suspect that it's evolution (without seeing any thermal maps) would at least keep W/C NY and S. Canada cold enough to maintain snow for the "big" part of the event. Just my take as of now...

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FEFD17

FEFD17

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Posted

Sitting at 10 Degrees and the ground is freezing up solid.I was reading the AFD @ the NWS site,and I see that most of NY has a HWO (except for most of the eastern side of NY).Looks like they are REALLY wondering on the snow/rain timing and trying to figure out what model to believe.I am kind of confused by the whole storm itself and the duration of it.I figured it would start Sunday ~ early-mid afternoon and be done by Monday A.M. Is there a break in the middle of the storm I am missing between the start and the POSSIBLE re-devolopment? I just hope for snow on our side!!

SUNDAY-MONDAY...STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE

EXACT TRACK...AND EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM DURING THIS TIME

PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING TWO

DISTINCT PIECES OF ENERGY...ONE TRACKING FURTHER N INTO THE GREAT

LAKES...WITH ANOTHER PIECE DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY

OR TN VALLEY REGION. THE 12Z/GFS SEEMS TO KEY IN ON THE NORTHERN

PIECE OF ENERGY MORE...ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER SFC LOW IN THE GREAT

LAKES...WITH LESS COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 12Z

ECMWF ALLOWS FOR COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL TRACKS THE

RESULTANT LOW NORTHWARD ACROSS OR JUST W OF THE HUDSON RIVER

VALLEY...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

ON

THE OTHER HAND...SEVERAL 12Z/GEFS MEMBERS HINT AT AN EVEN GREATER

SEPARATION OF THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY...WITH A SECOND...MORE

SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER COASTAL LOW

DEVELOPING MON INTO TUE. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TO

FRUITION...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST

PORTIONS OF THE REGION MON-MON NT

. OTHERWISE...ASSUMING THE OTHER

SOLUTIONS...OR A BLEND THEREOF...OCCURS...WE WOULD EXPERIENCE A

BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX SUN MORNING...CHANGING TO PLAIN

RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FOR SUN NT...BEFORE

CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FROM W TO E MON MORNING. WE HAVE SIDED WITH

THIS LAST SOLUTION...BUT AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE

HIGH...AND WE STILL COULD TREND TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION.

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2Slick

2Slick

Posted
Posted

While historical lake-effect snow wrapped up Thursday over the eastern Great Lakes, a new round of intense lake-effect and local blizzards are poised to slam downwind areas in the wake of a major weekend snowstorm.

Some areas in the snow belts could have snow flying for days starting late Sunday and lasting into the middle of next week.

An additional 1 to 2 feet of snow seems likely with local amounts pushing the 3-foot mark all over again. Confidence is "high" with the AccuWeather.com lake-effect snowfall forecast.

400x266_12092050_lakeeffectnxtwk.jpg

I hear that AccuWeather is all hype, so I will take this with a grain of salt until the local mets start talking about it.

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