Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

[Wx4cast]

I've been keeping my power dry, waiting to see if the models would make up their mind. So far, they don't seem to want to do that... So, I thought I would chime in. This is the way I see it right now. And don't hold me to this, the parameters are still to dynamic. The forecast for the Hudson Valley will be a lot little more tricky than it will me for me. I will see more in the way of snow out of this regardless of where the Secondary forms..right now I just don't know if it will be all snow or mostly snow. As for the HV and GFL, right now it looks more like a mixed bag...you will be a lot more sensitive to the secondary low's placement than I will IMO. If the Secondary bombs it will have the arctic air screaming in here which will cause the precipitation to change over snow very early. I think the two factors to watch will be where the negative tilt sets up when the trough forms, because this will dictate where the secondary forms. If it forms far enough south we're are all in business. The second thing will be how fast and how far the secondary deepens. if it bombs (worse case or best case take your pick) we could be throwing the blizzard word around up in interior NYS If everything comes together just right.

[NorEaster27]

I think the dacks are looking better than down by GFL, hopefully Gore can get 6+ out of this storm becuase they are hurting comapred to whiteface or the VT slopes.

[LakeEffectKing]

12z UKMET has the system driving ESE as opposed to NE into the southern lakes (note the slight cooling of the 850's as opposed to the warming the NAM shows:

[Organizing Low]

the GFS is a full 24 hours quicker with the surface low than last nights euro.

the us models are terrible for our region, in terms of previously discussed 'potential'

what a huge difference the Ukie!

[Sub_Zero]

the GFS is a full 24 hours quicker with the surface low than last nights euro.

the us models are terrible for our region, in terms of previously discussed 'potential'

what a huge difference the Ukie!

OL, about the GFS, good or bad?

[Organizing Low]

OL, about the GFS, good or bad?

bad, very bad.

but its likely out to lunch. the timing is way off, even from its own previous runs.

i think tonight and tomorrows 12z models will have better sampled the energy, so i woudlnt get too excited or disappointed with any solutions right now, because the variability is large.

if everything goes right, we could still get a big storm, there is a lot of potential with the pattern.....but its certainly not clear cut and how often to do these things work out lol.

[Wx4cast]

12z UKMET has the system driving ESE as opposed to NE into the southern lakes (note the slight cooling of the 850's as opposed to the warming the NAM shows:

It looks to be faster on arctic boundary too. In 72 hours the arctic front looks to be across NNH-NVT to south of LO and Buffalo.

[roady]

24" here since Saturday. We got snow when it wasn't forecast and didn't get it when it was forecast. Supposed to be done by 10am today yet it's snowharder than it has in the past two days. Lake Effect has to drive the mets nutz.

[LakeEffectKing]

24" here since Saturday. We got snow when it wasn't forecast and didn't get it when it was forecast. Supposed to be done by 10am today yet it's snowharder than it has in the past two days. Lake Effect has to drive the mets nutz.

Always a little bit...but the longer you live here.....and the more you study it, learn the models and what they "see" and "can't see", it drives one a bit less nuts!!

[LakeEffectKing]

BTW, I think there will be ONE more little burst of snow or snowshowers swinging north off the lake sometime this late morning or afternoon. 850 ridge is NOT yet passed, and there have been numerous times over the last decade or so, when models failed to depict an organized band as surface winds backed, while the 850 ridge was still to the west....might be a bit of a surprise to some, with the flags dropped (ie...thinking it's completely done)

Burst of moderate snow here on campus....shouldn't last long as it works in a broken up fashion northward.

[CoastalWx]

Cool, thanks LEK and others. Man, one day I'll chase out by the TUG, but that's impressive for SYR! Heavy heavy snow and heavy heavy beer.

[LakeEffectKing]

Cool, thanks LEK and others. Man, one day I'll chase out by the TUG, but that's impressive for SYR! Heavy heavy snow and heavy heavy beer.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

bad, very bad.

but its likely out to lunch. the timing is way off, even from its own previous runs.

i think tonight and tomorrows 12z models will have better sampled the energy, so i woudlnt get too excited or disappointed with any solutions right now, because the variability is large.

if everything goes right, we could still get a big storm, there is a lot of potential with the pattern.....but its certainly not clear cut and how often to do these things work out lol.

Accuweather still seems to think the Ottawa area gets a big snow event, although Toronto and Montreal not so much. Bastardi still likes the Euro. I watched his video this morning and he still seems to think eastern Ontario will do well. I don't know. At this stage 6-8" of snow would do me, as it would enable us to catch up with Montreal with regard to snowpack.

The cold behind this system looks impressive. -20C air temperature perhaps to help freeze up the canal?

Interestingly, the UK has experienced its coldest opening week of December since 1879 and the possibility exists that it could match December 1981 for coldest ever December. December 81 was mild in Ottawa, but January 1982 was legendary.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

12z UKMET has the system driving ESE as opposed to NE into the southern lakes (note the slight cooling of the 850's as opposed to the warming the NAM shows:

I'm no meteorologist, but i can only think that this would be good for us, as with colder air in place we would get more snow?

[LakeEffectKing]

I'm no meteorologist, but i can only think that this would be good for us, as with colder air in place we would get more snow?

Not seeing the longer range temp profiles, I'd assume so. Here is the 96hr. panel of UK.....back to being interesting vs. last night's 00z run:

[Andyace]

I am hoping to add to the 3" of snow on the ground here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[2Slick]

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCES THE 4TH HIGHEST 4-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL

AT SYRACUSE NY...

VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGAN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS

MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR

PRODUCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

STARTING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MID-WEEK...A PERSISTENT WEST-

NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR PRODUCED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS MOST

OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING IN THE SYRACUSE

AREA. BELOW ARE SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS TAKEN AT THE AIRPORT IN

NORTH SYRACUSE AND WHERE THEY RANK. THESE MEASUREMENTS ARE THROUGH

MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

5-DAY TOTAL (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...44.3"(6TH PLACE ALL-TIME)

4-DAY TOTAL (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...43.2" (4TH PLACE ALL-TIME)

3-DAY TOTAL (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...36.4" (5TH PLACE ALL-TIME)

4-DAY TOTAL SNOWFALL RANKINGS

1) 44.6"....(2/1/1966)

2) 44.5"....(3/14/1993)

3) 44.3"....(1/31/1966)

4) 43.2"....(12/8/2010)

ONE MORE STAT FOR SYRACUSE. THE LONGEST STRETCH OF RECORDED SNOW

FOR THE EVENT WAS FROM SATURDAY DECEMBER 4TH AT 616 AM TO

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 8TH AT 810 AM...OR A TOTAL OF 97 HOURS AND 54 MINUTES.

Amazing, historic, spectacular lake effect storm.

Heres to adding another 2' next week

[2Slick]

"Lake effect generated by this colder air and harsh winds will be nasty and crazy, leading to additional travel hardships, and could surpass the magnitude of those from earlier this week."

Quote from AccuWeather.

I can't see anything surpassing this event though.

[DeltaT13]

Accuweather still seems to think the Ottawa area gets a big snow event, although Toronto and Montreal not so much. Bastardi still likes the Euro. I watched his video this morning and he still seems to think eastern Ontario will do well. I don't know. At this stage 6-8" of snow would do me, as it would enable us to catch up with Montreal with regard to snowpack.

The cold behind this system looks impressive. -20C air temperature perhaps to help freeze up the canal?

Interestingly, the UK has experienced its coldest opening week of December since 1879 and the possibility exists that it could match December 1981 for coldest ever December. December 81 was mild in Ottawa, but January 1982 was legendary.

So I'm just curious, whats the big deal about the canal freezing up? There isnt a post from someone in that area that doesnt mention this freaking canal freezing up.

[Organizing Low]

So I'm just curious, whats the big deal about the canal freezing up? There isnt a post from someone in that area that doesnt mention this freaking canal freezing up.

haha yeah

from Wiki:

Rideau Canal passing through central Ottawa becomes officially the world's largest skating rink.^[10] The cleared length is 7.8 kilometres (4.8 miles) and has the equivalent surface area of 90 Olympic hockey rinks. It runs from the Hartwell locks at Carleton University to the locks between the Parliament Buildings and the Château Laurier, including Dow's Lake in between. It serves as a popular tourist attraction and recreational area and is also the focus of the Winterlude festival (1.6 million visitors in 2007) in Ottawa. Beaver Tails, a fried dough pastry, are sold along with other snacks and beverages, in kiosks on the skateway.

[Andyace]

They have all their bases covered here, except maybe throw in the kitchen sink!!!!

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW

YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING

RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST

PENNSYLVANIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[WNYLakeEffect]

Storm total finishes at 24.3". 31.0" for the month so far, nearly our average for the month as a whole. We've also had measurable snow for 9 days straight and tomorrow will make it 10.

Year-MM-DD,Snowfall,Snowdepth,

2010-12-01,2,2,

2010-12-02,0.2,2,

2010-12-03,2.2,4,

2010-12-04,2.3,5,

2010-12-05,3.8,8,

2010-12-06,8.5,13,

2010-12-07,4.3,14,

2010-12-08,7.2,18,

2010-12-09,0.5,17,

12z Euro looked pretty good for some LES here next week. 3 40" Decembers in a row looks likely.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I just watched a video on the accuweather free site given by Evan Myers. Looks like Ottawa is in the 3-6" zone, with places further north like Pembroke and North Bay being in the 6"+ zone. Pretty much what I was expecting and, honestly, I'll take it given we have pretty much nothing at the moment. Can't have a superstorm every year. If we're lucky maybe we'll get 8"

[lakeeffectkid383]

Snowfall stats I've been keeping... =]

[BuffaloWeather]

http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/snow_depth.php

[WNYLakeEffect]

Peek'n Peak ski resort has had 60" over the past week with up to 40" on the ground. Holiday Valley has had 45" with up to 22" on the ground. Cockaigne doesn't report snow, but they probably won in this storm, considering they probably sat in the same band as Randolph.

[lakeeffectkid383]

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...

RANDOLPH 72.0 900 AM 12/9 COCORAHS

HINSDALE 34.7 900 AM 12/9 COCORAHS

ALLEGANY 28.6 900 AM 12/9 COCORAHS

OLEAN 24.1 900 AM 12/9 COOP

FRANKLINVILLE 24.0 900 AM 12/9 COOP

72 inches since December 1st, WOW!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

[WNYLakeEffect]

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...

RANDOLPH 72.0 900 AM 12/9 COCORAHS

HINSDALE 34.7 900 AM 12/9 COCORAHS

ALLEGANY 28.6 900 AM 12/9 COCORAHS

OLEAN 24.1 900 AM 12/9 COOP

FRANKLINVILLE 24.0 900 AM 12/9 COOP

72 inches since December 1st, WOW!

http://www.crh.noaa....at=ci&version=1

They only average 100" or so a year! This is what the observer wrote today:

LES continues to pound the area although most of it stayed just north of us yesterday. Last night at 9 pm the band (with L. Huron connection) slide south over the area giving us 8" overnight (4" fell during the daylight hours yesterday). Snowing heavily this morning but with warmer air coming in aloft that will effectively shut down the LE machine until Sunday night/Monday. Where to put all this snow??? The village of Randolph is financially strapped with all this snow removal as much $ was spent last July cleaning up after the F2 tornado that brought a lot of trees down in town. Everyone seems to be pitching in and helping clean neighbor's driveways, etc... There's always a silver lining. As of 7:55 am on Dec 9, depending on when one defines the beginning of this LES event we have received a total of 69" since 12/3 (65" since 12/4; 59" since 12/5). Deer are beginning to move into town looking for browse. Can only see their ears above the snow! WOW.

http://www.cocorahs....3f-207e4290a85e

Daily snow was:

12/3- 4.0"

12/4- 6.0"

12/5- 12.0"

12/6- 24.0"

12/7- 7.0"

12/8- 4.0"

12/9- 12.0"

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Finally a forecast from accuweather devoid of hype. Brett Anderson has released his predictions and he shows Ottawa and Toronto both getting 8-15 cm (or 3-6") of snow, with Ottawa being right on the rain/snow line. Montreal he says gets mostly rain due to a southeasterly wind, as does Kingston. Overall, a huge letdown compared to what might have been. Still, I'll take 3-6" of snow over nothing, and deffinately over cold rain or freezing rain.

On a sidenote, JB hasn't updated his blog since last night when he was calling for a paralyzing blizzard in the lower lakes region. He didn't look too happy on his video this morning either. I wonder if the higher ups were unhappy with him? That's the problem when a weather service is for-profit. Weather is an inexact science and when you charge for services and then bust, things can get nasty, even though it is unfair. i mean, it doesn't matter if Henry Margusity busts because we don't have to pay to see his forecasts.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

18z GFS is awful out 54 hours. Low tracks just to the norh of Chicago! Congtratulations Wisconsin and northwestern Ontario.