cmichweather Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 AF base west of town GRAND FORKS AF PTSUNNY 88 86 94 S13 29.82R HX 116 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 AF base west of town GRAND FORKS AF PTSUNNY 88 86 94 S13 29.82R HX 116 Disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 AF base west of town GRAND FORKS AF PTSUNNY 88 86 94 S13 29.82R HX 116 The AF base up there always has had very high DP readings in the summer. I don't know if it is instrument or microclimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 It's looking like Toronto, Ottawa and montreal could get into the heat this upcoming week too, with a high of 95 forecast for tomorrow in Toronto and the lower 90s for Ottawa. Going to be pretty intense. I've noticed some places in the plains are breaking records from summer 1980. The following winter was quite a cold one. Will be interesting to see what happens this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Yeah I remember that heat wave. IIRC dews held near 80 most of the day, and we had that spike in the early evening. It felt like you were in a small bathroom after taking a long hot shower. VERY steamy. Only made it to 88 here today. Peak heat index hit 93. Dews generally stayed around 70 all day. The oppressive humidity levels start just west of the QC. I'm sure tomorrow will be a different story. EDIT: Just looked up the old ob for that date above. It was actually July 29. At 7pm it was 94/84 with a heat index of 122. Oops, forgot to do the mental translation from 00z July 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 The AF base up there always has had very high DP readings in the summer. I don't know if it is instrument or microclimate. It has to be instrument. I did ASOS observations at KGFK for a year which is only about 7-8 miles east of the base, and there is no difference in climate out there. That said, it is still nasty out there with a more realistic 79 DP at GFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Lack of coordination... Different opionions get you different places though. IWX's thoughts for heat advisory/excessive heat watches for Northern IN for the upcoming week: AFTER LONG CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING 100 DEGREES AND NUMEROUS...LARGE...OUTDOOR EVENTS GOING ON THROUGHOUT THE CWA FEEL THIS WOULD BE AN APPROPRIATE COURSE OF ACTION. WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY HEADLINES AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FENCE...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY MAY ONLY BE MET BUT GIVEN THE EXTENDED NATURE OF THIS...POSSIBLY EVEN BEYOND THE DAY 7 PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It looks like cloud debris/scattered showers will prevent a 90+ day today in the area, but Sunday and Monday still look to be on track for mid-90's (Monday dependent on MCS potential). Even with the off and on cloud cover, ORD still came pretty damn close with an intra-hour 89...and an 88 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Event with the off and on cloud cover, ORD still came pretty damn close with an intra-hour 89...and an 88 here. Whatever LOT says go the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Whatever LOT says go the opposite. Wrong, wrong, wrong. They are playing this 100% correctly. We are going to be damn close enough for MCS/other convective activity for the first few days of this that there is absolutely not enough certainty for advisory/warning criteria to be met. Even w/o any convection, we'd be marginal to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wrong, wrong, wrong. They are playing this 100% correctly. We are going to be damn close enough for MCS/other convective activity for the first few days of this that there is absolutely not enough certainty for advisory/warning criteria to be met. Even w/o any convection, we'd be marginal to start. Exactly, need people forget the upper 90s bust due to convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wrong, wrong, wrong. They are playing this 100% correctly. We are going to be damn close enough for MCS/other convective activity for the first few days of this that there is absolutely not enough certainty for advisory/warning criteria to be met. Even w/o any convection, we'd be marginal to start. That's exactly their reasoning on holding off. I was sitting on on their conference call on Friday afternoon. They seemed very happy with their decision to hold off on warning criteria for the city and metro area until re-evaluating tomorrow and possibly into Monday and I couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The NAM at least gets us up into the mid-upper 90s Monday before storms blast through late in the day (another NE to SW oriented QLCS develops early/mid-afternoon between Green Bay and Milwaukee and propagates ESE). So lets go for no morning MCS/cloud debris please. At least the NMM is all clear so far Monday morning (no MCS or mid-level moisture, but convection can be so hard to pin down. NAM's also all clear as Sunday night's MCS dives through WI into IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wrong, wrong, wrong. They are playing this 100% correctly. We are going to be damn close enough for MCS/other convective activity for the first few days of this that there is absolutely not enough certainty for advisory/warning criteria to be met. Even w/o any convection, we'd be marginal to start. And, as long as that action doesn't produce power outages, that should be a relief, given how many are rueing the upcoming heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Okay, so I was looking at the 18z GFS.... Shouldn't have bothered.... only depressed me further. Heat makes me sick, literally, physically ill. I am not going to enjoy the next 14 days at all. Relief does not look like it shows up until the end of the run, August 1st. The 850s are anywhere from 24C and above for the next 14 days. Obviously, things will change (hopefully) between now and Aug 1st, but it made for depressing viewing. Any system that moves through, rotates around the top of the ridge, in Central Canada. Hopefully, the models change their tune and shows at least one of those systems coming down, and pushing the heat out sooner that Aug 1. It looks like a trough develops over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS and pushes the heat back further west, which only means, when trough moves out, the heat moves back in, end of the 1st week of Aug, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 New NAM argues otherwise, showing an obviously very uncertain convection forecast, and consequently temp forecast for Mon. The NAM at least gets us up into the mid-upper 90s Monday before storms blast through late in the day (another NE to SW oriented QLCS develops early/mid-afternoon between Green Bay and Milwaukee and propagates ESE). So lets go for no morning MCS/cloud debris please. At least the NMM is all clear so far Monday morning (no MCS or mid-level moisture, but convection can be so hard to pin down. NAM's also all clear as Sunday night's MCS dives through WI into IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 New NAM argues otherwise, showing an obviously very uncertain convection forecast, and consequently temp forecast for Mon. Are you looking at the parallel NAM or the official NAM? I got my details on the 00z NAM from twisterdata. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Parallel (I think twisterdata is based off the older "official" NAM.) Are you looking at the parallel NAM or the official NAM? I got my details on the 00z NAM from twisterdata. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 New NAM argues otherwise, showing an obviously very uncertain convection forecast, and consequently temp forecast for Mon. I've been burned so many times by the NAM, whether it be snow or rain events. It's hard to take verbatim until within 24 hours. Just consider how it only recently started showing these MCS' this morning. The GFS was the first to catch on. It seems like the GFS hangs the low around the Western GL longer than the most recent NAM, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Who'd want to take any model verbatim anyways? I've been burned so many times by the NAM, whether it be snow or rain events. It's hard to take verbatim until within 24 hours. Just consider how it only recently started showing these MCS' this morning. The GFS was the first to catch on. It seems like the GFS hangs the low around the Western GL longer than the most recent NAM, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Parallel (I think twisterdata is based off the older "official" NAM.) Yeah, I was talking about the "official" NAM. But the parellel would suggest a pretty stormy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Should be one of the hottest Julys on record at Detroit. The record is 79.0, set in 1955 and 1921. Currently, the month to date is 77.1, which would be the fifth warmest on record. With the current NWS point-click forecast, that could be 78.9 by the end of Saturday, which would be third warmest on record. Chicago, Rockford, Cleveland, Toledo, and Mansfield (OH) all appear to be on track for top five warmest Julys too, unless an unexpected cooldown occurs before the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 You did nothing wrong, don't let the troll ruin it for ya. If you read back in his posts, you can tell he does nothing but troll the board. His newest one is trashing LOT in the heat wave thread. [/quot ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT 0 MDw NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1100 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011 ILZ014-170615- COOK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO 1100 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011 REST OF TODAY PARTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE IN THE MORNING BECOMING EAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. actual high as per Chi Storm 90 MDW 89 ORD and who can forget the June 30 fiasco. Not trolling posting facts. Not my job to be an ass kisser like you> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 NAM is trying to thwart Monday's heat here with some convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wrong, wrong, wrong. They are playing this 100% correctly. We are going to be damn close enough for MCS/other convective activity for the first few days of this that there is absolutely not enough certainty for advisory/warning criteria to be met. Even w/o any convection, we'd be marginal to start. First, let me say nothing but total respect for your opinions and input to the board. Please review there call for high temps on Friday July 1,2011 and actuals. Major bust. There calls on temps and sky cover have been atrocious this summer. The job is to make a call. Forecasting a 20% chance of Thunderstorms and maybe mid-90 s doesn"t get it done. Hell..Aleking forecasts on this board better....It is a fact. Note..i was not commenting on the near future but rather recent past performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 First, let me say nothing but total respect for your opinions and input to the board. Please review there call for high temps on Friday July 1,2011 and actuals. Major bust. There calls on temps and sky cover have been atrocious this summer. The job is to make a call. Forecasting a 20% chance of Thunderstorms and maybe mid-90 s doesn"t get it done. Hell..Aleking forecasts on this board better....It is a fact. Note..i was not commenting on the near future but rather recent past performance. It's easy to be a Monday morning quarterback. Forecasting temps in the summer, especially when you sit on the ring of fire like we have all summer, is among the ultimate of crapshoots. I'm interning at a private firm for clients and have found this out, sometimes the hard way. It is a bear, and I dare anyone who thinks they can do better than LOT to issue a seven-day forecast for a specific site around here, on this board, and verify it day by day. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It's easy to be a Monday morning quarterback. Forecasting temps in the summer, especially when you sit on the ring of fire like we have all summer, is among the ultimate of crapshoots. I'm interning at a private firm for clients and have found this out, sometimes the hard way. It is a bear, and I dare anyone who thinks they can do better than LOT to issue a seven-day forecast for a specific site around here, on this board, and verify it day by day. Good luck. Yeah anyone saying it is easy doesn't know what they are talking about, especially with a pattern like this among many variables such as convection/clouds/mixing/the lake, just to name a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Taking the new 00z GFS verbatim.....it has our dewpoint hitting 80 degrees everyday starting tomorrow and lasting through Monday the 25th! GFS overdoes dews lately, but that's still extremely impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Alright, here's my take on high temps for LAF from Sunday through Friday. A couple of these days early on have rather significant bust potential due to possible clouds/storms. Sun: 90 Mon: 90 Tue: 92 Wed: 94 Thu: 94 Fri: 95 As I said earlier, I expect daily dewpoints in the 75-80 range and some brief spikes above 80 are not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It's easy to be a Monday morning quarterback. Forecasting temps in the summer, especially when you sit on the ring of fire like we have all summer, is among the ultimate of crapshoots. I'm interning at a private firm for clients and have found this out, sometimes the hard way. It is a bear, and I dare anyone who thinks they can do better than LOT to issue a seven-day forecast for a specific site around here, on this board, and verify it day by day. Good luck. You're right, it's not easy, especially when there are complicating factors. So, that being said, let me toss my hat in the ring. ORD Sun: 92 Mon: 92 Tue: 93 Wed: 93 Thu: 94 Fri: 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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