beavis1729 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 From NWS Wichita: EXTEND: MON-THU HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SIZZLING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK THEREFORE WILL HAVE THE HEAT WATCH RUN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING GLARING SIGNALS OF TREMENDOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING THE HIGHEST VALUES YET THIS SUMMER. MEANWHILE...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BUT FRONTS HAVE HAD A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PENETRATING INTO THE BUBBLE OF VERY HOT AIR THIS SUMMER. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND KEEP SMALL CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO CENTRAL KANSAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 From NWS Wichita: EXTEND: MON-THU HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SIZZLING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK THEREFORE WILL HAVE THE HEAT WATCH RUN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING GLARING SIGNALS OF TREMENDOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING THE HIGHEST VALUES YET THIS SUMMER. MEANWHILE...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BUT FRONTS HAVE HAD A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PENETRATING INTO THE BUBBLE OF VERY HOT AIR THIS SUMMER. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND KEEP SMALL CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO CENTRAL KANSAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 more 105+ days for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I am finding the ongoing discussion concerning temperature records interesting, particularly regarding "midnight highs" and intrahour bumps. When measuring using a time scale, there has to be a cut off somewhere. Why not at a time that man has determined to be the beginning of a new day? I understand it may not be relevant concerning sensible weather. For example, when it is 54 at midnight, but most of the day the temps are in the 30's. It would not be prudent to change our time measurement scale to suit our needs. That would create a firestorm on how to best do that, and would not create anymore accuracy than what science currently uses. Concerning intrahour bumps, the technology has developed to constantly measure air temps, so why not use it? Isn't the goal to determine the highest and lowest temperatures during a certain unit of time? I understand that in times past, it was not possible. I see no flaw in the concept of continuing to record hourly temps but use the constant monitoring method to determine daily highs and lows. Finally, in regards to measuring in Fahrenheit vs. Celsius, it is a quantifiable measurement, easily understood by the U. S. general public. 89 vs. 90, once again, there has to be a cut off somewhere. No method is perfect, but I feel science has developed a very good method of measuring the weather. As the famous saying goes, "...lies, damn lies, and statistics." I'd disagree that science has developed a good method of measuring weather. Adding a high temperature recorded during a 24 hour period to the low and dividing by two is not accurate science. Calculus has been around for a long time and there is no reason today that we can't use integrals for record keeping. If we can change what a new normal is in weather every 10 years to better reflect current temperature patterns, we can use a more accurate method of determining what the average temperature is and could easily go back and recompute historical data. Integrating removes the skew from extreme brief radiational cooling nights, midnight highs, and other brief daily temperature phenomena. It's not like you are erasing the midnight high from the record books. If it was 54 at midnight, dropped to 30 by 4 am and stayed there for the rest of the day, the high would still be 54 and the low 30, but instead of giving an average temp of 42 for the day, integrating would give something along the lines of 33, a much more accurate depiction of what the average temperature was that day. The current method also makes it extremely hard to compare between two climate stations. Here at the lakeshore, the lake breeze often times does not kick in until about 11 am. Lakeside location has a low of 65, a high of 85 is briefly reached at 11 am, daily lake breeze kicks in, and temperature falls to 73 for the rest of the afternoon before dropping back to 65 at night. Current method gives an average of 75 degrees. Location 5 miles inland has a low of 65, temperature rises to 84 by late morning and stays in the mid 80s all day before falling off into the 70s around 8 pm and then falling back to 65 at night. Current method gives an average of 74.5 degrees. This happens here most spring and early summer days. The current methodology would make it seem that the lakeside location is warmer than the inland location, yet this is not an accurate depiction. If we just integrated the daily temperatures you'd have realistic and more accurate weather comparisons. While some places this month are flirting with their hottest months on record, I think this month is artificially warmer because of the way we measure. The frequent rains, clouds, and convective debris that kept many locations cooler for a good portion of the day, say from 8 am to to 5 pm, before it cleared out and temps had a late day surge, is not indicative of the average temperature that day. To say that a full sun day in 1955 with a low of 65 and a high of 95 (where the temp hit 90 by 10 am and stayed there until 8 pm) is just as hot as a day this July where the low was 70, stayed in the low 70s with rain/clouds through early afternoon, then briefly cleared out and surged to 90 by 7 pm , is just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Looks like the water temperature record is official now... they're no longer using the alternate site. The old record was 79 on August 16-28, 1988 and July 21, 1998. Buffalo also had reached a record of 80 a few days ago, tying the mark set August 14-16, 1988. If we can get another significant heat wave into the lower Great Lakes, I feel like water temps can get into the low 80s lakewide. ND OH 311 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE LEZ142>149-301415- MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH- THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH- AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA- ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY- 311 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 .TODAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SUNNY. WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS. .TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR. WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS. .SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING WEST. SUNNY. WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE LAKE ERIE OPEN LAKES FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WATER TEMPERATURE OFF TOLEDO IS 78 DEGREES...OFF CLEVELAND 80 DEGREES AND OFF ERIE 80 DEGREES. $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 The NAM/GFS/ECMWF are all kicking out low-mid 90's for the area today-Tue. The NAM is actually showing 95 on Mon/Tue, GFS MOS has 95 on Tue, and the ECMWF is showing 95-100 on Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Think we may have another shot at 100 here Tuesday if we can manage to keep clouds/precip away. That's a tough thing to do around these parts it seems though, so I agree with DVN's more conservative forecast. The area of 110+ forecast by the 12z NAM is astonishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Think we may have another shot at 100 here Tuesday if we can manage to keep clouds/precip away. That's a tough thing to do around these parts it seems though, so I agree with DVN's more conservative forecast. The area of 110+ forecast by the 12z NAM is astonishing. NAM 2m temps are showing 112 in Dallas and 111 in KC. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 133 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 /1233 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011/ ...RECORD NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED FOR THE MONTH OF JULY AT FORT WAYNE... THE TEMPERATURE AT FORT WAYNE TODAY HAS BROKEN THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE 21ST TIME THIS MONTH. THIS TIES THE RECORD FOR THE NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE OR GREATER DAYS IN THE MONTH OF JULY. WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ONCE AGAIN ABOVE 90 DEGREES THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JULY 2011 WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE MOST 90 DEGREES OR GREATER DAYS IN THE MONTH OF JULY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1897. 21 - 1983...2011(THROUGH JULY 30) 20 - 1921...1955 17 - 1898...1910...1934...1936 BENTLEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Tulsa finally saw its first T'Storm since forever this afternoon, after hitting 100*F. Now they've dropped to a comfortable 92*F, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 It looks like we'll get another 89*F for the books, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 With one day left in the month, here's where we stand across the Great Lakes Region: Detroit (Warmest on record) 1. 79.3 2011 2. 79.0 1955 3. 79.0 1921 Columbus, OH (Warmest on record) 1. 80.2 2011 2. 80.2 1999 3. 80.2 1934 Fort Wayne, IN (Warmest on record) 1. 79.7 2011 2. 79.5 1955 3. 79.5 1921 Toledo, OH (2nd warmest on record) 1. 79.0 1921 2. 78.8 2011 3. 78.6 1916 4. 78.3 1955 Cleveland, OH (2nd warmest on record) 1. 79.1 1955 2. 77.6 2011 3. 77.6 1949 4. 76.8 1921 Erie, PA (2nd warmest on record) 1. 77.6 1921 2. 75.8 2011 3. 75.7 1999 4. 75.7 1916 Indianapolis, IN (3rd warmest on record) 1. 82.8 1936 2. 82.0 1901 3. 81.9 2011 4. 81.6 1934 5. 81.1 1901 Flint, MI (3rd warmest on record) 1. 78.0 1921 2. 77.7 1935 3. 76.7 2011 4. 76.7 1934 5. 76.5 1955 Buffalo, NY (3rd warmest on record) 1. 76.2 1921 2. 76.0 1955 3. 75.2 2011 4. 75.0 2005 5. 75.0 1887 Mansfield, OH (4th warmest on record) 1. 77.0 1934 2. 76.8 1921 3. 76.7 1955 4. 76.5 2011 5. 75.6 1983 Saginaw, MI (4th warmest on record) 1. 77.5 1921 2. 76.8 1916 3. 76.2 1935 4. 76.1 2011 5. 76.0 1931 Akron/Canton, OH (5th warmest on record) 1. 78.0 1931 2. 78.0 1921 3. 77.1 1916 4. 77.1 1887 5. 76.7 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 With one day left in the month, here's where we stand across the Great Lakes Region: Detroit (Warmest on record) 1. 79.3 2011 2. 79.0 1955 3. 79.0 1921 Columbus, OH (Warmest on record) 1. 80.2 2011 2. 80.2 1999 3. 80.2 1934 Fort Wayne, IN (Warmest on record) 1. 79.7 2011 2. 79.5 1955 3. 79.5 1921 Toledo, OH (2nd warmest on record) 1. 79.0 1921 2. 78.8 2011 3. 78.6 1916 4. 78.3 1955 Cleveland, OH (2nd warmest on record) 1. 79.1 1955 2. 77.6 2011 3. 77.6 1949 4. 76.8 1921 Erie, PA (2nd warmest on record) 1. 77.6 1921 2. 75.8 2011 3. 75.7 1999 4. 75.7 1916 Indianapolis, IN (3rd warmest on record) 1. 82.8 1936 2. 82.0 1901 3. 81.9 2011 4. 81.6 1934 5. 81.1 1901 Flint, MI (3rd warmest on record) 1. 78.0 1921 2. 77.7 1935 3. 76.7 2011 4. 76.7 1934 5. 76.5 1955 Buffalo, NY (3rd warmest on record) 1. 76.2 1921 2. 76.0 1955 3. 75.2 2011 4. 75.0 2005 5. 75.0 1887 Mansfield, OH (4th warmest on record) 1. 77.0 1934 2. 76.8 1921 3. 76.7 1955 4. 76.5 2011 5. 75.6 1983 Saginaw, MI (4th warmest on record) 1. 77.5 1921 2. 76.8 1916 3. 76.2 1935 4. 76.1 2011 5. 76.0 1931 Akron/Canton, OH (5th warmest on record) 1. 78.0 1931 2. 78.0 1921 3. 77.1 1916 4. 77.1 1887 5. 76.7 2011 Are those warmest months or warmest July's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Are those warmest months or warmest July's? These are just Julys... although in most cases, the warmest Julys are the warmest months. There's a few exceptions in some of those locations, especially with August 1995 and August 1947. No Junes are close to these numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Think we may have another shot at 100 here Tuesday if we can manage to keep clouds/precip away. That's a tough thing to do around these parts it seems though, so I agree with DVN's more conservative forecast. The area of 110+ forecast by the 12z NAM is astonishing. Wow looks like its going to be brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 NWS ILX Consecutive 90+ Degree Highs at Springfield Ends at 14 With a high of "only" 89 degrees on Saturday, Springfield's string of consecutive days with highs 90 degrees or higher ended at 14 days. From the 16th through the 29th, highs were at least 90, peaking with a high of 98 degrees on the 21st. While this was not a record, it was the longest such string observed since 1955, when 13 consecutive days of 90 degrees was observed from July 25th through August 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I suppose Detroit's in for its second heatwave of the season if you base it off the zone forecasts. 91*F today 91*F tomorrow 92*F tuesday Already warmer than yesterday with temps at 83*F with 925mb temps of 23*C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I would kill for 91 degrees for a high temp. This 100+ stuff is for the birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Haven't really been paying attention to the heat aspect of the month aside from the blistering heatwave a couple weeks ago, but the MJS noted that this month is likely to be the fourth warmest on record in MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Looks like another 98/78 type day coming up for Tuesday around here. Still think we have a shot at 100 if clouds stay away/thin enough. The NAM still has almost the entire state of Oklahoma and much of Kansas at 110+ Tuesday. Even a few 115+ blotches showing up in places. Heat index temps will be at or below the actual temps if that's any consolation lol. Parts of the corn belt will likely see 110-115+ heat indices again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I suppose reaching 100º here on Tuesday may be a "stretch", but since 1964, there's only been one 100º+ temp at LAF in August (100º on 8/20/1983). Just looking back at the WL COOP temps from the 1930's, there were four total (2 in 1934 and 1936 each). Hoosier can correct me if I'm wrong on all that of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Joplin is probably going to have the 3rd hottest (currently 87.6) July average temp. The hottest was 1954 at 89.4 degrees. Also the year we had our highest temp ever at 115. We've had 18 days exceeding 100 degrees in July so far. 26 days of 95+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I would kill for 91 degrees for a high temp. This 100+ stuff is for the birds. Needs to hit a high of 91 today in Columbus to tie the record hottest July, set in 1934 and 1999 (80.2 degrees). Currently, it's 88 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 All Detroit needs is a +2.2*F departure in August for a top 3 hottest summer. It needs a +1.2*F depature for a top 5 hottest summer and heck, we can have a -0.8*F departure and still make the top 10. And finally, even a -3.3*F depature would still place us in the top 20 hottest summers list. Either way, it's just about a given this summer will be placed in the top 20 hottest summers list. I highly doubt we end up with something greater than a -3*F departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 All Detroit needs is a +2.2*F departure in August for a top 3 hottest summer. It needs a +1.2*F depature for a top 5 hottest summer and heck, we can have a -0.8*F departure and still make the top 10. And finally, even a -3.3*F depature would still place us in the top 20 hottest summers list. Either way, it's just about a given this summer will be placed in the top 20 hottest summers list. I highly doubt we end up with something greater than a -3*F departure. Don't forget that the new normals go into effect tomorrow. So that departure, based on new normals, actually shaves off 0.2 degrees. Here in Cleveland, our August normals are now 1.8 degrees warmer than the old ones! No more ridiculous temperature departures here anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Needs to hit a high of 91 today in Columbus to tie the record hottest July, set in 1934 and 1999 (80.2 degrees). Currently, it's 88 degrees. Now 92, so it looks like we made it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Made it to 93 here today. MLI only hit 89 which is sort of puzzling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Hot one today. Made it up to 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The cooldown mid-late week is going to feel good. Finally back to more normal weather. meh, weak sauce. Probably will still be AOA 90 here until the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Hot one today. Made it up to 95. Tied with FWA for second place in the state (EVV with 96º). When did they become LAF-lite? meh, weak sauce. Probably will still be AOA 90 here until the end of the week. Have to beat 7 days as our longest 90º+ streak this year. La la lock... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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