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July Heat Wave Obs/Discussion


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post-599-0-78077100-1311122261.jpg

This is what happens when 3.5" of rain falls overnight and you get a lake breeze. :) Full sun this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s, albeit still extremely humid. Just 74 degrees when I got home from work.

I'm afraid to see what kind of dewpoints/heat index combos we get here once winds become off shore and the 90s flood in.

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I have to wonder if some of those crazy high DPs in the Dakotas and MN are due in part to this.

Almost certainly so. I imagine that some of the daily readings are also affected by immediate rainfall, like the Moorhead reading after a storm overnight. Given the ridge, I bet we'd be talking about extreme temperatures instead of record DPs if it had been dry instead.

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I have to say that seems a bit suspect. Fargo is right across the river and it was only at 80.

Wind off of an ag field vs wind off of a city neighborhood. Plus they had a bunch of rain overnight in that immediate area. But yes, anytime you see that big of a difference it raises a question.

edit - more digging

Each station in Fargo, including Hector, is above 82 now. A road station near the Moorhead site is obviously broken, but another at the river has an 87 DP.

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Almost certainly so. I imagine that some of the daily readings are also affected by immediate rainfall, like the Moorhead reading after a storm overnight. Given the ridge, I bet we'd be talking about extreme temperatures instead of record DPs if it had been dry instead.

No doubt. Although it would be tough to challenge a lot of those record temps from the 1930s in the Dakota, MN, IA, NE, IL, etc. Definitely would need drier, "Dust Bowl" type conditions.

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Some forecasts from The Weather Channel:

Toledo/Metcalf Field http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/USOH0954

Wednesday 76/99

Thursday 80/104

Friday 82/98

Saturday 80/95

Toledo Express Airport http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/Toledo+Express+Airport++TOL:9

Wednesday 71/97

Thursday 76/102

Friday 78/95

Saturday 75/92

Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/Detroit+Metropolitan+Wayne+County+Airport+MI+DTW:9

Wednesday 73/95

Thursday 78/101

Friday 77/94

Saturday 76/92

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I have to say that seems a bit suspect. Fargo is right across the river and it was only at 80.

You have to watch the ASOS/AWOS sometimes too. The AWOS stations don't have quite the same preventative maintenance schedule, nor are the dewpoints considered all that important to go fix if reading high or low. But seeing the dewpoints posted at Davenport, Moline, Fargo and Minneapolis (among others I'm sure) are totally legit 80s.

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You have to watch the ASOS/AWOS sometimes too. The AWOS stations don't have quite the same preventative maintenance schedule, nor are the dewpoints considered all that important to go fix if reading high or low. But seeing the dewpoints posted at Davenport, Moline, Fargo and Minneapolis (among others I'm sure) are totally legit 80s.

Totally agree. AOMC is all over the ASOS when things go wrong ...I know AWOS doesn't get the same treatment. Mainly why I believe the Fargo ASOS but not the Moorhead AWOS.

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00z NAM still has 2m temps in the lower 100s for Detroit on Thursday. We could also have our first official 80*F day low Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

Quite of bit of moisture and instability too. It looks like we would get into those 110*F heat indices if we actually had that type of moisture.

Weekend's looking iffier though. It's like every run the GFS and EURO switch their masks with each other (when one shows one thing the other shows another and vice-versa).

There's no large scale diferences, but it would mean the difference between lower/mid 90s and mid/upper 80s Friday through Sunday or Monday. This is minus any convection as well.

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Will be interesting to see if DTW can hit 100F on Thursday.

Years where Detroit officially hit 100F or better, listed chronologically from most recent

1995 (1 day)

1988 (5 days)

1977 (2 days)

1955 (2 days)

1953 (2 days)

1952 (1 day)

1941 (1 day)

1939 (1 day)

1936 (9 days)

1934 (1 day) *all time high, 105F set July 24, 1934*

1933 (1 day)

1931 (1 day)

1930 (1 day)

1918 (2 days)

1911 (1 day)

1887 (1 day)

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Will be interesting to see what happens with the storms. If ORD gets deluged overnight it could conceivably knock a degree or two off of the high.

Are we going to have to deal with cloud debris again? That would be the 3rd morning in a row. If we could avoid it I bet KIND could top out near 98-100 Wed/Thurs/Fri. Even with the clouds around we have easily made it into the low 90's. This morning at my home weather station it was 92F and 83F on the dew with overcast skies! Of course I live by a forest and corn fields are all around.

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What the hell, lets go for it...

ORD

Sun: 93/95

Mon: 90/92

Tue: 93/93

Wed: 96

Thur: 98

Fri: 98

Sat: 92

Perfect today.

Tomorrow will probably a bit low with 98-100 more likely...Unless the Wisconsin MCS makes it down here with some rain, then only mid-90's.

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I have figured out what it feels like outside, It feels like a bathroom after someone had a hot shower. :thumbsdown:

Interestingly enough its actually cooler tonight than it was last night at midnight, however it is more humid, so the temp shouldn't drop much more.

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Are we going to have to deal with cloud debris again? That would be the 3rd morning in a row. If we could avoid it I bet KIND could top out near 98-100 Wed/Thurs/Fri. Even with the clouds around we have easily made it into the low 90's. This morning at my home weather station it was 92F and 83F on the dew with overcast skies! Of course I live by a forest and corn fields are all around.

Might have some early morning debris to contend with but will probably be mostly sunny after that.

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what I wouldn't give to be up north this week. These are the kind of weeks you dream of when putting your summer cabin reservation in.. to often than not its miserably chilly with front after front rolling through.

72/70 with calm winds up there.. Can just picture sitting on the pier casting a top water bait, drinking a beer and being scared poop less that a bat would fly in to me.

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On top of the tied record high at RFD, both RFD set a record high min and ORD tied.

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

0200 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2011

..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 19TH SET AT ROCKFORD IL

THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 100 DEGREES AT 229 PM CST (329 PM CDT) ON

TUESDAY AT ROCKFORD IL...WHICH TIED THE RECORD HIGH FOR JULY 19TH

SET IN 1930. THE LAST TIME IT WAS 100 DEGREES IN ROCKFORD WAS JULY

10TH 1989.

...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 19TH BROKEN AT ROCKFORD IL

ON TUESDAY...

A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 76 ON TUESDAY BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD

FOR THE DATE OF 75 SET IN 1942.

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

0205 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2011

...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 19TH TIED AT CHICAGO-OHARE

IL ON TUESDAY...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES AT CHICAGO-OHARE ON TUESDAY TIED

THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE SET IN 1977.

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