baroclinic_instability Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Since we are looking at a possibly record breaking and significant heat wave across much of the plains, Mississippi Valley, and portions of the Great Lakes/OV, I believe it deserves its own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 If cloud debris from possible MCS development isn't too significant or occurs mainly mon night, we have a chance of a 7 day heatwave here, with the hottest period possible Thurs-Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 GFS MOS for Minneapolis has 7 days of 90+. Chanhassen is going with 113 heat indices for downtown on both Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Looks like an impressive (and oppressive) heatwave for sure. Especially in the Dakotas. Further east in MN, IA, and WI, it appears there will be plenty of moisture/precip around, which could help temper things somewhat. The 850 temps certainly look ridiculous in places, but the rain may keep this from being anything historic. I'm sure the humidity will make things feel awful, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Looks like an impressive (and oppressive) heatwave for sure. Especially in the Dakotas. Further east in MN, IA, and WI, it appears there will be plenty of moisture/precip around, which could help temper things somewhat. The 850 temps certainly look ridiculous in places, but the rain may keep this from being anything historic. I'm sure the humidity will make things feel awful, though. I think oppressive is a good word. I did a quick check of 100° days at MSP in the last three decades. Basically they broke down into three situations: drought (especially '88), pre-frontal (like the 103 earlier this year), or a mega-ridge (1995). It doesn't really seem like we are talking '95 here, so I'd guess that a disgusting mid-upper 90s with mid-upper 70s dews regime is in store up there. Disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 GFS suggesting no reprieve from the heatwave next weekend, with another surge beginning late next weekend (i.e, most locations taken verbatim would see 10-12 days of 90+ weather), not too different from the 00Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 GFS suggesting no reprieve from the heatwave next weekend, with another surge beginning late next weekend (i.e, most locations taken verbatim would see 10-12 days of 90+ weather), not too different from the 00Z Euro. It looked like there was a cold front in the northern plains at 180 hours. The lower resolution of the long-range GFS must have truncated that feature. So I'd be a little skeptical of that depiction. I'm not saying that there will be relief, just that the GFS depiction seems a little questionable. Personally, I expect temps to remain hot right through the end of the month, with only very minor and brief relief. To me, this just looks like a stagnant, blocked-up weather pattern, so I don't see much change until mid-August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 GFS suggesting no reprieve from the heatwave next weekend, with another surge beginning late next weekend (i.e, most locations taken verbatim would see 10-12 days of 90+ weather), not too different from the 00Z Euro. I'd take the 12z GFS in a heartbeat over last nights euro. Like I said in the other thread I could be reading the GFS wrong tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 GFS suggesting no reprieve from the heatwave next weekend, with another surge beginning late next weekend (i.e, most locations taken verbatim would see 10-12 days of 90+ weather), not too different from the 00Z Euro. The whole run is warm, with a ridge staying in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 THis looks like it's going to be pretty prolonged. I'm expecting many days of highs 92-97 and dewpoints 75-80. I think it will be remembered more for the duration rather than any extreme/record breaking temps at least in my backyard, although the Euro is still suggesting temps near 100. I got burned on a Euro mid range torch last summer so a little more caution this time. Will be nasty either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Just seems like on the gfs compared to last nights euro it has the eastern G lakes and south of there getting into more of the SE ridge heat and not the core of the brutal stuff out west until later? I'm probably just digging my stupidity hole deeper lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. East wind around 10 mph. Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. East southeast wind around 5 mph. Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming east northeast between 5 and 10 mph. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Tuesday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 80. Thursday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. LM FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 THis looks like it's going to be pretty prolonged. I'm expecting many days of highs 92-97 and dewpoints 75-80. I think it will be remembered more for the duration rather than any extreme/record breaking temps at least in my backyard, although the Euro is still suggesting temps near 100. I got burned on a Euro mid range torch last summer so a little more caution this time. Will be nasty either way. Both Euro and GFS have been running too warm in the mid/long range, so they are probably too warm verbatim once you get past day 4. But there is no doubt it does look like a prolonged period of heat/high humidity for the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. East wind around 10 mph. Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. East southeast wind around 5 mph. Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming east northeast between 5 and 10 mph. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Tuesday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 80. Thursday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. LM FTW I'd take 90 right now. My car thermometer read 88 at 7AM this morning. Help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Temps today already seem to be overperforming. Up to 86 at KORD. 00z GFS MOS had 84 for the high, and the NWS point-click forecast has 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 looks like the euro is playing with the degree of the trough again in the NE and canada. Big heat waits to get in here until Thursday now but then its on like me and a 12 pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z ECMWF has 850mb temps up around 27C in the area on Thursday afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z ECMWF has 850mb temps up around 27C in the area on Thursday afternoon/evening. You get text data right? Can you tell about how high you're mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 WOW! NOAA hazards outlook is now calling for excessive heat for the entire eastern half of the US, except New England and south Florida, all the way through July 29! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 See what BS the euro can plop out tonight. won't need lit coals for the the grill to roast weenies up here next weekend on the euro. Probably could cold smoke some cheese in the smoker with just a chunk of lit wood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 You get text data right? Can you tell about how high you're mixing? 2M temp is 35.9 at 18z. Have to see exactly what the sounding shows when it's out within the next 2 hours or so. 0z run had 850's a bit cooler with a similar 2M temp, and the data maps showed highs of 100F+... Mixing was up to around 825mb. So I'd expect it to be similar on the 12z. The only real difference between the two runs is that the 0z run was showing the highest temp potential on Wednesday, while the 12z run is Thursday. Wednesday is still toasty on the 12z though, with 850's running between 23-25C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 country wide inferno next monday.. time to start praying. just brutal stuff down to the SW all run. I'd melt or comfit suicide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Temps today already seem to be overperforming. Up to 86 at KORD. 00z GFS MOS had 84 for the high, and the NWS point-click forecast has 83. 81 bank clock downtown, might need a light jacket again tonight. The cold summer rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I heard sobbing the other day. It took me a while but I narrowed it down to the air conditioner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 While I have it handy, here's LAF data... 12Z JUL15 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 18Z 19-JUL 33.1 21.8 1011 58 54 0.02 594 584 WED 00Z 20-JUL 31.8 22.4 1009 69 63 0.01 593 585 WED 06Z 20-JUL 27.3 23.3 1009 86 61 0.01 592 584 WED 12Z 20-JUL 27.8 24.6 1008 75 74 0.01 591 584 WED 18Z 20-JUL 34.7 25.1 1008 56 50 0.06 593 586 THU 00Z 21-JUL 32.8 24.0 1007 68 49 0.00 592 586 THU 06Z 21-JUL 26.4 24.9 1008 92 37 0.00 592 585 THU 12Z 21-JUL 26.8 24.5 1009 92 54 0.00 592 584 THU 18Z 21-JUL 36.0 24.6 1008 51 38 0.00 593 586 FRI 00Z 22-JUL 35.4 26.2 1007 54 58 0.00 593 588 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 81 bank clock downtown, might need a light jacket again tonight. The cold summer rolls on. You're gonna be screwed like the rest of us if there's a day with a strong enough gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Most next week looking like just the weak jalapeno poppers appetizer until the main Habanero/Scotch Bonnet poppers arrive late week and rolls on to kill all our intestines. Nice knowing you y'all's Only people saved will be those packed in on the alek and saukville micro climates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Most next week looking like just the weak jalapeno poppers appetizer until the main Habanero/Scotch Bonnet poppers arrive late week and roll on to kill all our intestines. Nice knowing you y'all's Lol; now I know what not to try at Mexican restaurants. If anyone wants a reminder of why the heat isn't so bad (unless you work in it), watch the 3rd round of the British Open tomorrow morning. It will basically be a 360 from what we're expecting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 81 bank clock downtown, might need a light jacket again tonight. The cold summer rolls on. 80, 70, 75, and upper 70's today.. not a bad stretch of 4 days with mostly full sun except for the cloud cover rolling in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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