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LES Event NE IL/N IN/SW Lower MI


tornadotony

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Allison House on GRL3 is showing that the whole radar system , nation wide is down..Somebody must have unpluged the server----arrowheadsmiley.png

The whole NWS is being affected by some problems with the main satellite broadcast network, so people will likely have problems with radar and other products until it's fixed.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

338 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2010

SHORT TERM

LL THERMAL TROUGH CONTS TO DEEPEN IN WAKE OF SUBTLE SW TROUGH

CROSSING CWA ATTM AND WHICH WAS YIELDING FAIRLY VIGOROUS LK SHSN ESP

INLAND. MULTIPLE SNOWBANDS CONT WITHIN SLIGHTLY BACKED 320 DEGREE

FLW PER RECENT OBS YET XPCD TO VEER TO ABT 340 OVERNIGHT. THUS

DIPOLE ARRANGEMENT OF WRN SNOWBAND ALIGNED FM WRN BERRIEN SEWD

THROUGH ERN KOSCIUSKO AND ERN BAND ALIGNED FROM WRN ALLEGAN THROUGH

WRN ST JOE WILL CONT BUT BACK WWD OVERNIGHT. PREFERRED 12KM WRF

CONTS W/THIS ARRANGEMENT ALTHOUGH CONTS TO WAVER ON INLAND

PLACEMENT/INTENSITY AND AGAIN WILL CONT W/SLIGHT SWWD HEDGE WHICH

HAS WORKED WELL TDA. THUS ALTHOUGH OVERALL SNOWBAND INTENSITY MAY

WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTN...3-4 DEGREE C INTENSIFICATION OF THERMAL

TROUGH OVERNIGHT SHLD LEAD TO A MORE SIG RESPONSE W/GREATER POINT

ACCUMS GOING FORWARD INTO TUE AM AS EQL HGTS STEADY OUT NR 8KFT

WITHIN DEEPER LONG AXIS FETCH. QPF/SNOW GRIDS LARGELY BASED ON A

GROSS MODEL BLEND W/SUBJECTIVE DETAIL ADDED WHERE DEEMED

APPROPRIATE. HWVR TRYING TO PIN DOWN MAX POINT ACCUMS A FUTILE

EFFORT AT BEST AND WILL CONT W/HIGHER SPECIFIED RANGES IN ZONES.

INVERSION HGTS/MSTR DEPTH BEGIN TO DROP LTR TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT

W/DELTA T STILL WELL ABV 20C...XPC SHSN WILL CONT WELL INTO TUE

NIGHT BFR ABATING. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ESP

NORTH BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW. OTHERWISE GRADIENT WINDS MAY

BECOME A PROB ESP OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TUE W/INCREASING SNOW

DEPTH IN BLSN. WILL ADD MENTION TO GOING WSW PER REPORTS OUT OF

BERRIEN COUNTY W/6 INCH AMTS SO FAR.

OVERALL PRIOR GRIDS IN IDEAL SHAPE W/MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND ADDED

DETAIL TO QPF/SNOW ACCUM ALIGNMENT. BIGGEST CHG WAS TO CUT AMNTS ALG

THE SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY YET HOLD W/NR 20 INCH ACCUMS OVR

BERRIEN/CASS/NRN LAPORTE AND NW ST JOE BUT W/NOTED CAVEAT THAT MAX

POINT ACCUMS WILL BE HIGHER. FURTHER INLAND...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT TO

FRING ADVISORY COUNTIES...ESP NRN KOSCIUSKO...AND WRN PORTIONS OF

LAGRANGE/NOBLE AND ST JOE MI WHERE WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE

EXCEEDED. PREFRENCE THIS AFTN IS TO HOLD W/EXISTING HEADLINES AND

MONITOR HOW ERN BAND DVLPS THIS EVENING. ERN BIAS PLACEMENT OF WRF

WOULD SUGGEST CURRENT ALGINMENT WILL WORK YET ULTIMATELY

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Debated towing the sleds "around the horn" to Niles, MI area for an early season rip but decided to stay home on this one.

Cousin did make drive over from Chicago for a snow chase in his new Jeep (no, not this one) and currently stopped for dinner in Paw Paw. Looks like decent banding has been in that vicinity and then again from South Haven through Allegan. Definitely on the hunt for thunder snow tonight.

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IWX continues to maintain LES warnings as advertised as they expect snow bands currently over MI to swing back sw. Still 10-14 inches of snow expected by Tues. dawn for me here in Elkhart county with amounts approaching two feet to the nw of here in LaPorte and Berrien counties. Good to have radar back again.

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1.5" per 7 a.m. IMBY this Dec. 6. We seem to have been between bands....LES warning extended until noon Tues. with heavier bands expected today/ tonight.

Not only are you between bands, but they seemed to get interrupted by a weak wave overnight. They should crank up for you now. I know you're more of a severe weather guy, but it should be fun being in the middle of the LES. Keep us posted on amounts in the Elkhart/Dunlap area!

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Same here.... Think the same band is lined up with both of us. So far, IMO, run of the mill LE with nothing really "epic", but it's far from over and can pile up quick.

Yep, the real fun seems to be when you get an intense single band running down the fetch of most of Lake Michigan that decides to sit over your area for awhile! We'll see what happens.

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For me and Indystorm :P

UPDATE...

NEAR TERM FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE BEING LOWERING HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE

SOUTH AND WEST DUE TO COLDER START. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE

REMAINDER OF TODAY REVOLVES AROUND LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND

POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. ATTM...INTENSE PARALLEL SHORE BAND

EXTENDS FROM NEAR KBIV SEWD TOWARDS KHAI AND NE INDIANA. THIS BAND

FEATURES A GOOD LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION WITHIN PERSISTENT LAKE

AGGREGATE TROUGH...BUT ACTIVITY THIS FAR SOUTH CONTINUES TO BE LESS

ORGANIZED GIVEN MORE CELLULAR LOOK. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY

SHEARED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/LIFT

RESULTING IN NO SEEDER FEEDER ELEMENT. ANOTHER HORIZONTAL ROLL/LES

BAND EXISTS JUST TO THE SW OF THE SHORE PARALLEL BAND FROM NEAR KBEH

SE TOWARDS OUR OFFICE. AGAIN...MORE OF A CELLULAR LOOK HERE ALTHOUGH

SOME MORE ORGANIZATION NOTED IN LAST FEW RADAR SCANS. AM NOT

EXPECTING MUCH OF A CHANGE THROUGH THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH AN

OSCILLATION NE EARLY THIS AFTN AND THEN BACK TO THE SW LATER IN THE

DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LVL FLOW EVENTUALLY VEERS A BIT BEHIND A

SHORTWAVE SHOWING UP NICELY OVER SRN LAKE MI. THIS MATCHED UP WELL

WITH THE PREV FCST...HENCE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GRIDS/SNOW

AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PLACEMENT. ALSO HELD OFF ON ANY

CHANGES TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING.

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Holland, MI is getting rocked. They have had solid bands of 25-35dBZ almost non stop. Report earlier 12" on the ground so far.

Just drove through southwest Holland over lunch. Snowing like crazy. Two miles east of there the sun is shining. My guess is easily 12" has fallen. It goes from very light and fluffy with lots of blowing snow to dense pellets that compact really fast. Amazing to see this much snow falling while there is absolutely nothing to the east.

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IWX discussion supports the model image i poste too.

12Z LOCAL WRF...WHICH SUPPORTS A SINGLE BAND SETTING UP IN THE

CASS/BERRIEN/ST JOE IN/ELKHART/NRN KOSCIUSKO/NRN MARSHALL VICINITY

TONIGHT. 12Z SBN BUFKIT VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SLIGHTLY BETTER

THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILE TONIGHT...WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES

AOA 500 J/KG...EL/S BTW 8-10 KFT FOR A TIME..

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