Baroclinic Zone Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Nice to wake up and see dew on the grass. Natural watering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Nice to wake up and see dew on the grass. Natural watering. LOL..that doesn;t water the lawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 LOL..that doesn;t water the lawn Lol, it doesn't not put water on it. Its better than waking up to 80f and arid dry lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 BOX still has not bought into big heat up this way, IMBY. Sunday 88, but the rest of the week looks low to mid 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 But ASH is at 94 Sunday! Hellhole for DomNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 BOX still has not bought into big heat up this way, IMBY. Sunday 88, but the rest of the week looks low to mid 80s I'm not sure we hit 90F during any of this. Its still uncertain if we get into the big heat. It might be another warmup like what we saw on the 11-12th. Quite warm but not an all out torch. However, if we get into the heart of that stuff over the top of the ridge, then we could get a real big shot of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Clear and 81/56. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 Radar out for NWS? Some building cu to my south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 Maybe hitting the beach Sunday... Horseneck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 I'm not sure we hit 90F during any of this. Its still uncertain if we get into the big heat. It might be another warmup like what we saw on the 11-12th. Quite warm but not an all out torch. However, if we get into the heart of that stuff over the top of the ridge, then we could get a real big shot of heat. It'll nick 90 today and tomorrow for HFD/BED/FIT...etc, but I think you were writing in deference to the obvious big player interval of time - I get it. But, I mentioned this to OSU' yesterday too - that trough NE of us in the Maritimes is the problem. It's why my confidence yesterday was only moderate for that heat invasion, despite what at the time was a fairly impressive consensus (somewhat unraveled at the moment perhaps) The models are having the usual performance issues with where to place that, and with intensity too - that is one impressive negative anomaly up there!!. I'm actually surprised we haven't brought that up. It has a sub-534dm cold core with like 6 contours enclosed in mid July and spread out over a huge +NAO. But I digress... Anyway, one run bumps it NE, and we're in and miserable. Next run delays its weakening and thus locks in NW deep layer flow, and we're not. Which is correct? We are right on the door stop that separates your big heat from something more tempered and closer to normal - ?perhaps MCS training? I have been watching this closely amid the various depictions and the virtual boundary that separates those air masses is around 588dm height contour. If you get inside there those absurd 580dm thickness plumes come through in the model depictions. What is interesting for me is that areas unusually far N of the ambient polar boundary have 571dm-like thickness, which in mid July is actually not a bad warm sector limitation here in Boston. ...But that's another issue. It is also interesting how the 00z and 06z GFS operational versions have placed the middle and extended range subtropical ridge node in different locations - the former was along the EC and we approached historic heat; the 06z back into the western OV across the same time intervals, allowing stubborn said trough to inflict when for all other rites it should be dead and gone. I just don't see how we can iron out these differences deterministically. The teleconnectors are really not that useful right now for providing any corrective measure. I will say that some of the ancillary less reliable modeling sources are still on board, with the UKMET showing a translating thermal ridge that passes into the MA and bulges up into New England. The CMC has said boundary squarely bifurcating the area with 12 hours in, 12 hour out heat dances with convection. The GONAPS is a smoothed out nightmarish lie so who cares, and that DGEX tool bring 100F to LGA for 2 days back to back at the end of this next week, and 95 all the way to PWM. Usually something eventful and that big will begin to galvanize in the solutions sooner than later, so seeing as we are on D5 on the 12z run this morning, perhaps said consensus will come back - or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Heh, yet another way to look at it.... who can think of a better portents to a big heat event in the NE than this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The only interesting thing this summer has been watching the heat dome to the west and seeing how much nw flow we could get in here to thwart the torch. If we get into the torch for a few weeks ...I won't be posting so much. Too much to stomach the warministas crowing day after day....oh and Pete telling us how 88/70 in Chesterfield is really not tough to take at all. LOL Wake me up when the first evidence of the seasonal southward shift of the jet shows up in August.... I'm not sure we hit 90F during any of this. Its still uncertain if we get into the big heat. It might be another warmup like what we saw on the 11-12th. Quite warm but not an all out torch. However, if we get into the heart of that stuff over the top of the ridge, then we could get a real big shot of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 Giant squirt gun fight in Boston this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Heh, yet another way to look at it.... who can think of a better portents to a big heat event in the NE than this... Tip, what are we looking at for high temps you think?Are you thinking like low 90s, then we spike up to 97-98 one day, then dip back down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The way I look at it, once you hit 90 with humidity, I could care less if it's 93, 97, 101... because I'm already cocooned in the a/c and trying to shut off the outside world except going from car to house to work etc. I do understand some people get off on setting extreme heat records...understood as a weenie myself, but it's not for me..... Tip, what are we looking at for high temps you think?Are you thinking like low 90s, then we spike up to 97-98 one day, then dip back down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The way I look at it, once you hit 90 with humidity, I could care less if it's 93, 97, 101... because I'm already cocooned in the a/c and trying to shut off the outside world except going from car to house to work etc. I do understand some people get off on setting extreme heat records...understood as a weenie myself, but it's not for me..... Yes, you should like all kinds of weather bro NW flow is a big heat signal for here.... downsloping and the wind coming right off the city and all....usually makes us hotter than the city itself and is a good signal for triple digit heat here in July. But if you like it cooler, I'll be rooting for you to stay in the mid 80s while I aim for 103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The way I look at it, once you hit 90 with humidity, I could care less if it's 93, 97, 101... because I'm already cocooned in the a/c and trying to shut off the outside world except going from car to house to work etc. I do understand some people get off on setting extreme heat records...understood as a weenie myself, but it's not for me..... Some of the background indicators are not really helping your desires either. NCEP noted that the recent bias calculations show that the middle range guidance, particularly the ECM are biasing too cool with the trough heights and lingering them too long; a corrective measure perhaps as we head into the middle range and beyond with this heat. In other words, it's likely more prodigious in the area than the these oscillatory runs that try to swing it/shunt it SW. We'll see... ...UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS... SOME MINOR MANLY MID LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS AND ENS MEANS OF 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST OF ECMWF DAYS 6 AND 7 SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE 00Z OP RUN IS TOO FAR WEST AND ERN CANADIAN/NERN CONUS HTS ARE TOO LOW AS IT OVER DEVELOPS A STRONGER TROF IN THE REGION...A TYPICAL BIAS OF THIS MODEL. WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SPREADING LOWER HTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND RAISING HTS FASTER OVER NERN CONUS IT IS NOT MUCH OUT OF LINE WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY ITS LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST. DAYS 6 AND 7 ADJUSTMENTS MADE USING A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS AND THE ENS MEANS OF GFS AND ECMWF. RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN So they're nodding to the 00 GFS but this 12z run is kind of off to doing the same ECM crap from what I am seeing. Watch, the ECM will arrive with the hottest solution yet. lol. Snownh, who knows exactly... MOS has us with a borderline heat wave of forgettable proportions until ...whatever fropa late Monday. The flow tips NW aloft as that ginormously intense negative anomaly translates through the Maritimes; that compresses the height field back toward the SW - the thing is, the source behind the cold front leading that 2 day period is not impressive.. Thickness may not even recede much while we get more drying as opposed to temperature, but the MOS products only may or may not reflect that. I'd say 91F in backyards today, tomorrow and Monday while ASOS at the climo sites are lower (typical lies and annoyance...). Then perhaps middle 80s and dry Tuesday-Wednesday... Then the heat comes in. Too early to be specific on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Snownh, who knows exactly... MOS has us with a borderline heat wave of forgettable proportions until ...whatever fropa late Monday. The flow tips NW aloft as that ginormously intense negative anomaly translates through the Maritimes; that compresses the height field back toward the SW - the thing is, the source behind the cold front leading that 2 day period is not impressive.. Thickness may not even recede much while we get more drying as opposed to temperature, but the MOS products only may or may not reflect that. I'd say 91F in backyards today, tomorrow and Monday while ASOS at the climo sites are lower (typical lies and annoyance...). Then perhaps middle 80s and dry Tuesday-Wednesday... Then the heat comes in. Too early to be specific on that. Thanks Tip.. Not good for the garden it sounds like.... Hopefully we get dumped on on Monday. We really need the rain here after that last round of showers missed MHT completely other than a few sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Unfortunately I may be forced to go down to the city for work. :devilsmiley: I think I'm ok next week, but the following week I may have to go down there one day.... So I know what it's like. Yes, you should like all kinds of weather bro NW flow is a big heat signal for here.... downsloping and the wind coming right off the city and all....usually makes us hotter than the city itself and is a good signal for triple digit heat here in July. But if you like it cooler, I'll be rooting for you to stay in the mid 80s while I aim for 103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Gorgeous day today. Interesting in that the sky yesterday with the cloud pattern was EXACTLY the same as I experienced in the Chicago area the day before. Today the same as yesterday until I left around 2:30PM. Wednesday there was cool and it fled east here for Thursday. Gotta love weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 When was the last time we've seen 100 degree heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 When was the last time we've seen 100 degree heat? July 6 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Did the last night Euro continue the big heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Did the last night Euro continue the big heat? 12z Euro has mid 90s minimum on Thursday... Dry, deep layer west flow out of the thermal ridge; small pocket of 20C H850 air passing through at 12z likely signals a blazing afternoon. and it also shows a huge plume of erstwhile conintental heat getting ready to move into the NE states - stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 looks like Friday is hot too, then the model goes back to its NW flow attempt after 144 hours - not a very good time period for the ECM verification-wise, so probably not much hope for alleviation that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 it also looks like no one is in this thread or cares so I am talking to my self ... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 it also looks like no one is in this thread or cares so I am talking to my self ... haha LOL, no it looks pretty warm. A high does build south to try to reduce the heat, but it probably would still be near 90 before a second pulse of heat comes in after hr 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 LOL, no it looks pretty warm. A high does build south to try to reduce the heat, but it probably would still be near 90 before a second pulse of heat comes in after hr 192. Did you see that huge ridge coming in at that time? holy shistmaster - eh, all subject to change. Yeah, i noticed that interesting bubble high that interrupts the signal for like 18 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 looks like Friday is hot too, then the model goes back to its NW flow attempt after 144 hours - not a very good time period for the ECM verification-wise, so probably not much hope for alleviation that way. Well, we are starting to get closer, so maybe, just maybe it get one right. KFIT at 88F 80F here, high of 81 so far. td of 50F is pretty sweet. Kids are loving it. My son is at a camp this week and I have been trying to tell him how hot it could be. Tip, I was reading what you wrote earlier today wrt the system in the Maritimes to our NE... could that actually bring the heat in our area instead of blocking it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 My son is at a camp this week and I have been trying to tell him how hot it could be. Treasure valley? 85/55 here...very nice...probably another day that goes in at +3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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