Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Yeah, Euro hints at it, too... I recall one day in ...summer 01 or 02, we had an August deal with a package of 22C at 850mb well-timed diurnally. 100F was the forecasted hi for the typicals ... Surprise, MCS dies at 21z over Michigan and the next morning at 10-2pm, a tall columned cirrus puke veil was passing squarely overhead... Most sites made 95 with a couple of 97s but it definitely dented. That's the problem when it is THAT edgy - it's "envelope" heat; in other words, pushing the physical bounds for deez parts. Need things to be perfect and when you flirt with perfection, those little flies in the flow have a tendency to buzz pretty loud. It's kind of like getting 60" snow packs, or a blizzard of THAT proportion - something always perturbs the event enough to mute it's 100% potential. It's lousy forecast philosophy maybe, but on a philosophical level it actually makes more sense than that. The upshot is that nearer term forecasting is in theory accounting for the flies, so if you are 24 hours out, satellite is clear, and the NAM has 35C at 980 on the FRH block, you're going to cook hard! yeah that's part of the problem around here it seems...it's a bit of a catch-22. to some extent you need to be on that "envelope" to catch that good plume of heat emanating out of the MW/OV and be in a good spot for mixing and proper BL flow...but if things break wrong it taints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 some of these numbers are pretty funny valid 18z friday: ORH: 38.4C BDL: 37.0C ASH: 38.5C LWM: 39.8C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Peoria, IL: 97F 79F HI 116F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Peoria, IL: 97F 79F HI 116F Could we see dews that high on Thursday an Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 EC ensembles at 850 have a 24C contour tickling Logan11's fanny. Wow. Thursday is gonna be nasty if dews are modeled that impressive. Sometimes they'll be a bit lower if we are so hot, or more of a wsw wind, but wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 EC ensembles at 850 have a 24C contour tickling Logan11's fanny. Wow. Thursday is gonna be nasty if dews are modeled that impressive. Sometimes they'll be a bit lower if we are so hot, or more of a wsw wind, but wow. How high are dews? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 Oh I praaauyyyyy. How I prayyyyyyy Seriously, my son will be at a campout Thursday into Friday. Wonder if he should skip it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 there's a really strong, thin LLJ (for the season) that develops to our E on thursday...with the tail end of it extending back into SNE...the nam confines it to the cape but the gfs is a bit more expansive. sort of an odd set-up but 35 knot gusts at 95F at BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 How high are dews? I can't tell with what I have. Kevin may have got a stinger from the excessive heat watch now posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I would also say there is a small chance a feeble seabreeze could develop on Friday....very feeble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 I can't tell with what I have. Kevin may have got a stinger from the excessive heat watch now posted. Just saw that...the watch, not the Johnson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 I can't tell with what I have. Kevin may have got a stinger from the excessive heat watch now posted. Wind direction? West/SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Wind direction? West/SW? Probably more wsw Thursday and west on Friday along and west of BOS-PVD corridor...somewhere near there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Peoria, IL: 97F 79F HI 116F Checked Decatur on Wunderground and saw 101/85, HI 135. gaccckkk!! But that was from an amateur observer; the airport was 95/79 HI 112, more like Peoria, but still bad enough. When I was out there (DEC) last year it was 93/77 and walking outside was an instant saltwater swim. (Wicked good TS that evening, though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 BDL 103/79 PVD 102/80 ORH 98/79 BOS 103/80 # of deaths 75 My predictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I'm going to turn off the AC ont he way down and see how much he likes the heat/humidity. Do you have an ipod compatible car? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 keV, are those deaths just at BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 BDL 103/79 PVD 102/80 ORH 98/79 BOS 103/80 # of deaths 75 My predictions What are those second numbers??? Ballsy prediction of an all-time high at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 Wiz's bedroom will be 97 with spiders everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 What are those second numbers??? Ballsy prediction of an all-time high at BDL. Highest dewpoint each site sees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Highest dewpoint each site sees I take under on every one of your predictions there. Why don't you throw out some mins too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 West Chesterfield high of 89.1 Wind chill of 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 BDL 103/79 PVD 102/80 ORH 98/79 BOS 103/80 # of deaths 75 My predictions 98 at ORH? What's their all-time record high? I was thinking more along the lines of 93-94 for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 West Chesterfield high of 89.1 Wind chill of 68 Even they won't be able to escape 90 this go around. Probably will hit 91 or 92 even at 1500 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 18z NAM has 105F 2m contours in S NJ and DE Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I take under on every one of your predictions there. Why don't you throw out some mins too. BDL 80 or higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 98 at ORH? What's their all-time record high? I was thinking more along the lines of 93-94 for this event. This is going to one of if not the all time hottest wx we've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 BDL 80 or higher? fail fail fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 This is going to one of if not the all time hottest wx we've ever seen Worse than 1991? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 BDL 103/79 PVD 102/80 ORH 98/79 BOS 103/80 # of deaths 75 My predictions GFS MOS is 93 for PVD on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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