Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 yeah a pretty abrupt temp drop there too Pretty solid continuity break for the better - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 ASH being up there with BDL as the torch station is really disheartening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 eh, pretty confident NCEP will toss that solution beyond Friday - that trough introduction is kind of breaking stride with trend and being a bit obtrusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Pretty much status quo on this Euro run with continuation of its usual vagaries beyond D4... At this point based on the balance of the 12z guidance and trend heretofore, at least through Saturday I am now finally in that 75% confidence on the 3 day heat wave with some departures "perhaps" approaching extreme. As Scott and I were mentioning, being so close to the rim of the ridge could mean an MCS at just about any time and/or debris contamination - excluding the possibility of a +23C @ 850mb wihile dense cirrus shielding, suspect a couple of 99ers with lollipop 101s in the HFD-FIT-BED triangulum... Boston witll broil, but Logan may tell tails. Euro is close to doing that late day Thursday. Verbatim NNE gets hit hard and we have very light QPF in ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 wow...those poor people in the plains. nothing like seeing 105-110 showing up again early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 wow...those poor people in the plains. nothing like seeing 105-110 showing up again early next week. Yeah ...even though I suspect that trough is overdone for us locally, the run overall does have a rinse-repeat sort of vibe about it... .Like this may all repeat a week later or sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 wow...those poor people in the plains. nothing like seeing 105-110 showing up again early next week. Farms FTL.. good thing I have my own garden.. I wonder if we start seeing wild fires nationwide instead of just in the SW now? Also I bet we see another large dust storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 nice...maybe i'll get a 'cane at day 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 nice...maybe i'll get a 'cane at day 8-9. I knew you'd post that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Hottest August ever ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Hottest August ever ? You have an August outlook yet, John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I knew you'd post that lol LOL. if only. hopefully at some point in the next 12 weeks that will be reality. would like to see that general synoptic set-up shown though day 8-10...would probably be an active period of tropical-like showers/storms with that humid meridional flow...we haven't had that in a long while. of course by the 00z run that'll just be a transient trough passing through NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Thursday could be brutal with heat/humidity combo... worse than the July 5-6, 2010 combination. Dews may mix out behind thermal trough on Friday??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Thursday could be brutal with heat/humidity combo... worse than the July 5-6, 2010 combination. Dews may mix out behind thermal trough on Friday??? yeah some signs that friday is like 99/60 in spots. by-the-way, are you leaving your station? what was the saying good bye to 3 monitors tweet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Thursday could be brutal with heat/humidity combo... worse than the July 5-6, 2010 combination. Dews may mix out behind thermal trough on Friday??? This heat episode will definitely "feel" worse than last year's. Looking forward to possibly getting 100/75 in Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 yeah some signs that friday is like 99/60 in spots. by-the-way, are you leaving your station? what was the saying good bye to 3 monitors tweet? Yeah friday could be better. Thursday could just be horrible. Just meant that I couldn't live without 3 monitors when making a forecast... not going anywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 This heat episode will definitely "feel" worse than last year's. Looking forward to possibly getting 100/75 in Baltimore. Should be a rude awakening for Kevin who thought last year's was about as bad as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Should be a rude awakening for Kevin who thought last year's was about as bad as it gets. I'm going to turn off the AC ont he way down and see how much he likes the heat/humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 does anyone else see on the 12z euro a 6hr max temp ending 84 hours of >40C in a corridor along rt 128/495? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 Thursday could be brutal with heat/humidity combo... worse than the July 5-6, 2010 combination. Dews may mix out behind thermal trough on Friday??? Scooter mentioned this earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 does anyone else see on the 12z euro a 6hr max temp ending 84 hours of >40C in a corridor along rt 128/495? wow ... yeah the 2-m temp specific to BOS on the euro at 18z friday is 39.9C...holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 wow ... yeah the 2-m temp specific to BOS on the euro at 18z friday is 39.9C...holy crap. For BDL I went 99 on Thursday and 97 on Friday. I'm worried about leftover convective crap Friday. If we start the day sunny and capped we could really, really bake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 wow ... yeah the 2-m temp specific to BOS on the euro at 18z friday is 39.9C...holy crap. Ow. (80-8)+32 = 104 (same as (1.8XT)+32) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 wow ... yeah the 2-m temp specific to BOS on the euro at 18z friday is 39.9C...holy crap. And those are just 2m temps. I'm not sure I ever remember 2m temps being progged this high this consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 And those are just 2m temps. I'm not sure I ever remember 2m temps being progged this high this consistently. The NAM and GFS are crazy warm at 850 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 For BDL I went 99 on Thursday and 97 on Friday. I'm worried about leftover convective crap Friday. If we start the day sunny and capped we could really, really bake. Ow. (80-8)+32 = 104 (same as (1.8XT)+32) amazing really. maybe it backs off a bit as we near?? don't know. 18z temps wed to sat at BOS per the 12z ec: 32.2C, 34.4, 39.9, 36.0 DrunkInFairield>> best summer ever <<DrunkInFairfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 And those are just 2m temps. I'm not sure I ever remember 2m temps being progged this high this consistently. yeah i was thinking the same. it's basically shown that plume of >24C 850 air since last week and has had that 100F+ contour popping up in the interior most runs. amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Thursday could be brutal with heat/humidity combo... worse than the July 5-6, 2010 combination. Dews may mix out behind thermal trough on Friday??? Even at the shore? GON got to something like 101 last year. That kind of heat will be pretty tough to match at least along the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 For BDL I went 99 on Thursday and 97 on Friday. I'm worried about leftover convective crap Friday. If we start the day sunny and capped we could really, really bake. Yeah, Euro hints at it, too... I recall one day in ...summer 01 or 02, we had an August deal with a package of 22C at 850mb well-timed diurnally. 100F was the forecasted hi for the typicals ... Surprise, MCS dies at 21z over Michigan and the next morning at 10-2pm, a tall columned cirrus puke veil was passing squarely overhead... Most sites made 95 with a couple of 97s but it definitely dented. That's the problem when it is THAT edgy - it's "envelope" heat; in other words, pushing the physical bounds for deez parts. Need things to be perfect and when you flirt with perfection, those little flies in the flow have a tendency to buzz pretty loud. It's kind of like getting 60" snow packs, or a blizzard of THAT proportion - something always perturbs the event enough to mute it's 100% potential. It's lousy forecast philosophy maybe, but on a philosophical level it actually makes more sense than that. The upshot is that nearer term forecasting is in theory accounting for the flies, so if you are 24 hours out, satellite is clear, and the NAM has 35C at 980 on the FRH block, you're going to cook hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Even at the shore? GON got to something like 101 last year. That kind of heat will be pretty tough to match at least along the immediate coast. I'm talking about the heat/humidity combination. Dew points mixed out quickly (W-NW wind helped GON get to 101) so yeah the heat was very impressive at the shore especially but dew points really plummeted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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