Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Maybe a cell or two? yeah that's what i was thinking...as you know sometimes these day after fropas this time of year leave things a bit unstable for 12 to 24 hours before things dry out better. dews are still pretty high and mid-level lapse rates are decent. so maybe a pulse storm or two or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Weenies will melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Weenies will melt Right off the body. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 yeah that's what i was thinking...as you know sometimes these day after fropas this time of year leave things a bit unstable for 12 to 24 hours before things dry out better. dews are still pretty high and mid-level lapse rates are decent. so maybe a pulse storm or two or something like that. Maybe a seabreeze storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 if he doesn't answer, shoot him.. there is no too early, that's the point of the gun. then the next guy will answer when you point a gun at him Start a max high temp thread for this upcoming heat wave. This is a day 3 (or earlier) event - it's not too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked if something rolls through the New England area sometime Thursday-ish...maybe morning or even perhaps Thursday night. I wouldn't expect it, but I think there are signs that something might want to roll over the top of this heat ridge. It could just miss us entirely and hit Maine, but just something to watch for the weenies up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Right off the body. Guys will become girls this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Yeah Friday looks like mostly west winds for a good chunk of New England, except southwest on the south coast. It might be one of those things where BOS tries for the century mark, but dews might be like 65 or something like that..while HYA is 89/74 or something like that. This is nuts! I know that the PNA is theoretically non-correlated in the summer months but I find the recent consternation in wavering amid the operational GFS and to whatever degree, the Euro, as far too coincidental on that CDC's +2SD recovery of the index; and that is complimented/matched/nodded by CPC's calculations, too, showing equally an ~ +2SD. That is a LOT of mass field changing orientation for my taste regardless of the season. I don't like coincidences very much - could be. But I think there is "buckle-ability" in the flow being thrown down stream from the Pacific - particularly in the 55-60 latitude band, and that is causing our subtropical ridge (in the means of the model runs) to be off and on impacted as to how far N that critical 588dm "rim" gets. You get in at 582 but you are more transient that way, with Golfer zapping convective episodes and nocturnal wakeners. The GFS has been toying with us, in out in out in out... The 00z went pretty hard toward the ridge-happy Euro, baking us mercilessly. But no sooner ... the 06z wavers right on back and has us failing to really get that VIP pass into the ridge, only offering a briefer guest tour. For all of this I am still not confident this heat won't be muddled with by nuances - definitely not a pure shot in the least. What is interesting is that even though I believe that to be true, the shots we do get are off the fricken charts man! 24.5C at 850 is just not yiellding on the Euro - and I am aware of the on-going bias of the Euro to have middle range big 850s end up muted down to 20 or 21C, but this time is different imo. It is different because the air mass in the source region is already 25 if not 26C over the southern Lakes and MN/WI/IL regions. There is no synoptic reason for that to spontaneously cool before arrival - if and when it does, errr... Smoke: It was noted yesterday and sat proves it has milked our heavens. It is unclear how much this will affect insolation numbers and/or if the temperatures reflect this - I know that volcanism (duh) has a profound affect for various particulate/SIGMA reasons - but smoke? I would think it would have some affect perhaps less pronounced. Not sure though. In any event, the winds will be more west when the heat arrives and I believe that will shunt the smoke back NE of us... It came down with this weak bubble high, synoptically. That said, it doesn't have quite the spatial coverage and visibility iimpact of recent episodes over the last decade, so perhaps it is of minor consequence altogether. The sun "feels" hot as Hades right now; whatever that means... Lastly, next week could have some big time severe episodes if things break right, and there is probability in there it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Tip why do you think severe for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked if something rolls through the New England area sometime Thursday-ish...maybe morning or even perhaps Thursday night. I wouldn't expect it, but I think there are signs that something might want to roll over the top of this heat ridge. It could just miss us entirely and hit Maine, but just something to watch for the weenies up here. Me neither... The top of this ridge where it's been kissing the westerlies has been doing so with tongue in the form of shredded loosely organized MCS' and occasional supercells ... big bangers that have been turning right and then dying slow deaths... Southern WI, southern MI, PA....all raked yesterday and the day before. Shouldn't this shift east with that disappearing ridge node going underneath us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Tip why do you think severe for next week? I see this subtropical ridge as being seasonally prominent and resisting fropas/trough incursions now that we are pretty much on the apex of summer. This would naturally set up a "battle ground" so to speak. Take the 00z Euro: though the details and exact dailies will obviously change on future runs, just using that Monday-Tuesday interval as a facsimile - I see that type of scenario as being favored where you have temporary heat recessions leading to warm fropa/sectors, then jet dynamic accompanied polar frontal passages. There may be 1 or 2 episodes of that next week where 90s/70 type heat goes head to head against the westerlies. Not a certainty; just has that vibe for now. I'd focus on the heat headlines for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I think I could hack 90/72 for some big time boomers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 There is little doubt that ASH will touch 100. Might be aided by tarmac, but it should happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 There is little doubt that I will touch 100 weenies before this summer is over Don't be silly..put a jimmy on your willy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 john, I noticed too that despite the +PNA display on CDC/CPC, we do have a semi-permanent west coast trough. Obviously we know the PNA domain is not relegated to the west coast, but I think this is one of those times where the index is deceiving. Also as far as the heat getting mucked up, I think one of the most classic ways for heat in SNE to be muted, is through convective debris. I think there is a small chance something tries to roll through either predawn Thursday or Thursday night, but it might be restricted to NNE. I wouldn't expect it as of now, but don't be shocked I guess. I think if anything...maybe early morning cirrus Friday, then this area clears out. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Here it comes on the FRH grid. The following is BOS and LGA left to right. Note, the first two digits are 83 - that translates to 583dm thickness. Holy schistal whip! That 2n two digits correspond to 32 and 34C respectively. That is 32C and 34C at the 980mb level (these stations sfc signam is at MSLP). Standard rule of thumb is to add 3 to 4C to those numbers to get the 2-meter temperature. If you do so, more times than not you will se the MOS products match that within an F degree or two. So using that roundabout method supplies 35 and 37C respectively for Thursday on this product. That 95 and 99F for BOS and LGA respectively. Not bad! The other thing is ... typically in a situation like this the NAM will raise BOS in deep layer warm sector flows in future runs. I suspect that this 2C gap will close a bit in shorter terms in other words; both locales have the same thickness and BOS will eventually get the advantage of more downslope trajectory, particularly if they can dump the 230 taint. Lastly, there doesn't appear to be any means to alter the airmass overnight Thur into Friday a.m.; that could result some of the highest launching pad in recent memory folks. 54000576564 -6195 052221 82322319 54000535744 -1696 092112 81332417 60000696750 -5695 062319 83292518 60000526132 -3295 082414 83342619 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 tedious perhaps but interesting to see the 00z GFSX MOS product elevate Saturday's high from 86 to 94F across one cycle, 12z to 00z yesterday/last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Here it comes on the FRH grid. The following is BOS and LGA left to right. Note, the first two digits are 83 - that translates to 583dm thickness. Holy schistal whip! That 2n two digits correspond to 32 and 34C respectively. That is 32C and 34C at the 980mb level (these stations sfc signam is at MSLP). Standard rule of thumb is to add 3 to 4C to those numbers to get the 2-meter temperature. If you do so, more times than not you will se the MOS products match that within an F degree or two. So using that roundabout method supplies 35 and 37C respectively for Thursday on this product. That 95 and 99F for BOS and LGA respectively. Not bad! The other thing is ... typically in a situation like this the NAM will raise BOS in deep layer warm sector flows in future runs. I suspect that this 2C gap will close a bit in shorter terms in other words; both locales have the same thickness and BOS will eventually get the advantage of more downslope trajectory, particularly if they can dump the 230 taint. Lastly, there doesn't appear to be any means to alter the airmass overnight Thur into Friday a.m.; that could result some of the highest launching pad in recent memory folks. 54000576564 -6195 052221 82322319 54000535744 -1696 092112 81332417 60000696750 -5695 062319 83292518 60000526132 -3295 082414 83342619 heat fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 heat fetish No doubt about it. Tippy loves his heat. He's posted more about this impending heatwave the last 7-10 days than he has about any severe wx event or winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 heat fetish Eh, wrong - I don't WANT it to be 100... Shist I want 85/68 even... The Meteorology is what's interest though - Scott and I have explained this, and how if you are really interesting in the weather, these governing dynamics should be remarkable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 No doubt about it. Tippy loves his heat. He's posted more about this impending heatwave the last 7-10 days than he has about any severe wx event or winter storm. Because we have too few of either - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Eh, wrong - I don't WANT it to be 100... Shist I want 85/68 even... The Meteorology is what's interest though - Scott and I have explained this, and how if you are really interesting in the weather, these governing dynamics should be remarkable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 78.7/59 here ... decent breeze. It was pretty muggy early this morning but that has cleared out a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 some of those fri afternoon soundings around SNE are amusing. just a bit unstable. also...nice 37C 2-m temp at BOS with 20 knot west winds. LOL. awful. just gusts of hot, stinky city air. Tip doing naked somersaults. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 some of those fri afternoon soundings around SNE are amusing. just a bit unstable. also...nice 37C 2-m temp at BOS with 20 knot west winds. LOL. awful. just gusts of hot, stinky city air. Tip doing naked somersaults. To those living in cute parts of Dorchester, breathe deep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 MOS is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 MOS is nuts. yeah it's brutal. going up quick now as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 GFS seems to be coming in hotter if that's possible - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 some of those fri afternoon soundings around SNE are amusing. just a bit unstable. also...nice 37C 2-m temp at BOS with 20 knot west winds. LOL. awful. just gusts of hot, stinky city air. Tip doing naked somersaults. I always thought you enjoyed summer heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 GFS seems to be coming in hotter if that's possible - 2m temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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