OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Those have a decent chance of cooling a couple degrees. The Euro's summer heat fetish is pretty well known in the medium range. Usually about 3-5 times per summer it will try and bring 22-25C 850s in here only to be more like 20C. right on cue. Looks cooler? Tough to tell i guess since I'm comparing the 12z to the 00z run at 24 hour intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 right on cue. Looks cooler? Tough to tell i guess since I'm comparing the 12z to the 00z run at 24 hour intervals. .. Yes, a bit more realistic perhaps. But it's been wavering, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 right on cue. Looks cooler? Tough to tell i guess since I'm comparing the 12z to the 00z run at 24 hour intervals. It looks like it might be a degree C or so cooler at 850. It's bringing a relatively cooler shot down on Saturday more aggressively. I think like what we were saying earlier...Maybe 22C or 23C the worst around here later Thursday through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillB Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 00z ECM is off the charts hot from Thur-Saturday.... in fact, +25C at 850 pass right through durng max heating on Friday. If the BL made it to 850mb level the standard adiabat would drive the thermometers to 44C at the surface. That would be the hottest day ever in SNE, period, going back to beginning of awareness that the world isn't flat. Could still be an error at D4 onwards I thought your previous post said we were mixing from 850mb to the surface...dry adiabatic lapse from 850 to 1000mb when it's that warm is 15c. +25C at 850 mb mixed to standard surface pressure would be approx. 104F Forecast MSLP from the GFS for Thurs and Friday mornings is 1006-1008 mb which may draw that back as much as 1 degree F. Normally when we are giving max temp estimates off mixing it is to Standard pressure. Side notes...mixing to 800 mb is common this time of year, and mixing to 750 mb is not unheard of. Inspection of the forecast sounding profile to these levels can be important. Another point, as has already been noted...25C at 850 mb on a Day 4/Day 5 forecast most times evolves to less warm values by the time that day rolls around. If the models maintain 25C for another couple of days then you will see the forecasts trend up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 +25C at 850 mb mixed to standard surface pressure would be approx. 104F Forecast MSLP from the GFS for Thurs and Friday mornings is 1006-1008 mb which may draw that back as much as 1 degree F. Normally when we are giving max temp estimates off mixing it is to Standard pressure. Side notes...mixing to 800 mb is common this time of year, and mixing to 750 mb is not unheard of. Inspection of the forecast sounding profile to these levels can be important. Another point, as has already been noted...25C at 850 mb on a Day 4/Day 5 forecast most times evolves to less warm values by the time that day rolls around. If the models maintain 25C for another couple of days then you will see the forecasts trend up. aside from the matter , i just glanced at those numbers. i saw the synoptic 24C circumvallate over SNE and figure it was good for 25 max in there - that may be a poor assumption but i did it on the fly. i also wasn't paying attention to whether the MSLP was 1006 or 1012, so used the latter as a round about. again, on the fly... it's no woop - ... 104 or a 106 is splitting hairs, particularly at this time range. i think most mets know this stuff - just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Flip a coin: THE 12Z/18 GUIDANCE FALLS OUT THE SAME AS THE 00Z/18 CYCLE...WITH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF MORE TENACIOUS WITH THE HEAT OVER THE NORTHEAST DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OTHER MODELS NOSE THE POLAR FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL...AND ARE SLOWER TO LIFT IT BACK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DAY 6. FELT THAT THE MANUAL BLEND WAS SUPPORTED ENOUGH TO MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES ACROSS THE NATION FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 You know it's a rich air mass when you can dodge rain drops and alto strata deck all day and still manage 86F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Looks like about a -7F bust for me today. Topped out at 87F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 Sick stuff. This has been more or less been showing up for days. John, I think you first pointed it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Sick stuff. This has been more or less been showing up for days. John, I think you first pointed it out... It's not even clear yet what affect all this will have on SNE proper... This could all still be limited to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It's not even clear yet what affect all this will have on SNE proper... This could all still be limited to NYC. Earthlight is talking about 28C 850s over this region! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Earthlight is talking about 28C 850s over this region! I haven't seen any products that extreme - nor have I ever heard of that even being possible outside of a massive forest fire ...like in the smoke cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Flip a coin: THE 12Z/18 GUIDANCE FALLS OUT THE SAME AS THE 00Z/18 CYCLE...WITH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF MORE TENACIOUS WITH THE HEAT OVER THE NORTHEAST DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OTHER MODELS NOSE THE POLAR FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL...AND ARE SLOWER TO LIFT IT BACK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DAY 6. FELT THAT THE MANUAL BLEND WAS SUPPORTED ENOUGH TO MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES ACROSS THE NATION FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. My intuition tells me that the GFS has the better idea, but I hope that the EURO is right.....I just can't overlook it's ridge fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 My intuition tells me that the GFS has the better idea, but I hope that the EURO is right.....I just can't overlook it's ridge fetish. wait though - last week it was a Euro trough fetish. Which is it- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This summer may have some similareities to 1995. Gotta go back to the drawing board for winter.... I knew you'd fold lol Chuck 'em, high, chuck 'em low, when the old man will quit his slingn, no one knows :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 wait though - last week it was a Euro trough fetish. Which is it- I never said that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 You know it's a rich air mass when you can dodge rain drops and alto strata deck all day and still manage 86F 77.2F! Adjusted for GC. Now 75.5 undeer nice sunny/breezy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 00z Euro has a 2m 100F for me on Saturday. Actually the whole SE 1/3 of NH is in 100s. 22-24C 850s for all of us Sat. Insane. This is like some of those weenie runs before a snowstorm....when you just know it's cracked out....like the run last winter that gave Jaffrey like 40" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I never said that it was said in general though - which is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Those have a decent chance of cooling a couple degrees. The Euro's summer heat fetish is pretty well known in the medium range. Usually about 3-5 times per summer it will try and bring 22-25C 850s in here only to be more like 20C. Precisely what I was alluding to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 it was said in general though - which is it. Definitely ridging, as far as I am concerened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I knew you'd fold lol Chuck 'em, high, chuck 'em low, when the old man will quit his slingn, no one knows :weenie: Man I missed this, Fat Squirrels everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I knew you'd fold lol Chuck 'em, high, chuck 'em low, when the old man will quit his slingn, no one knows :weenie: I think I know your answer to this already but would you rather see most of our tropical systems recurve out to sea if it meant that a winter like 1995-96 or 2010-11 might be in the cards again (lots of recurvatures preceding both tropical seasons and both followed torch summers.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The euro has a tendency to bury troughs in the northeast and southeast Quebec, but it does sometimes have a bias by a couple of degrees C for these warm plumes. Either way, with west winds and temps near or above 22C at 850...we all melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I haven't seen any products that extreme - nor have I ever heard of that even being possible outside of a massive forest fire ...like in the smoke cloud Yeah...no one out here is getting +28C 850s...lol. 24-25C is about as extreme as it gets. Lump a perfect setup +17C onto that for the warm spots in the lower elevations with a decent westerly component and you get 41-42C which is basically your Northeast state records. It's not exactly Dust Bowl criteria in the Plains so a lot of those 1930s records to our S and W are safe for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This is like some of those weenie runs before a snowstorm....when you just know it's cracked out....like the run last winter that gave Jaffrey like 40" lol lol this does sort of feel like tracking a HECS 5 days out.... meh not quite, but the best we can get this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I think I know your answer to this already but would you rather see most of our tropical systems recurve out to sea if it meant that a winter like 1995-96 or 2010-11 might be in the cards again (lots of recurvatures preceding both tropical seasons and both followed torch summers.) LOL, you pose this question to Ray? He's already nude looking back at his calendar from '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Heh, 18z NAM has 22C 850's by thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yeah...no one out here is getting +28C 850s...lol. 24-25C is about as extreme as it gets. Lump a perfect setup +17C onto that for the warm spots in the lower elevations with a decent westerly component and you get 41-42C which is basically your Northeast state records. It's not exactly Dust Bowl criteria in the Plains so a lot of those 1930s records to our S and W are safe for awhile. I would hit Feb 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 LOL, you pose this question to Ray? He's already nude looking back at his calendar from '96. Hand written weenie phrases tattooed on his Johnson.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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