Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I thought your previous post said we were mixing from 850mb to the surface...dry adiabatic lapse from 850 to 1000mb when it's that warm is 15c. I was just reading right off the skew-t ....25C at 850 and then run it down the dry adiabat to the surface is 43/44 or so... It's probably moot anyway - NCEP seemed to intimate that the Euro is an excessive outlier, which given that result ...not hard to imagine that as being the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I was just reading right off the skew-t ....25C at 850 and then run it down the dry adiabat to the surface is 43/44 or so... It's probably moot anyway - NCEP seemed to intimate that the Euro is an excessive outlier, which given that result ...not hard to imagine that as being the case. you are right tho with the extrapolation, ecm has 43c at ash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 you are right tho with the extrapolation, ecm has 43c at ash It's probably too high with those temps. Maybe 22 or at worst 23C at 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It's probably too high with those temps. Maybe 22 or at worst 23C at 850? Agreed - it had better be, because that would be 106F at LOGAN and probably 92F still at 11pm that evening - this isn't vegas. actually, the mixing depth probably wouldn't get that high because 25C is kind of stable sounding one would have to think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 00z ECM is off the charts hot from Thur-Saturday.... in fact, +25C at 850 pass right through durng max heating on Friday. If the BL made it to 850mb level the standard adiabat would drive the thermometers to 44C at the surface. That would be the hottest day ever in SNE, period, going back to beginning of awareness that the world isn't flat. Could still be an error at D4 onwards I must have misread your comment about the August autumn. Alas. 72.6/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I was just reading right off the skew-t ....25C at 850 and then run it down the dry adiabat to the surface is 43/44 or so... It's probably moot anyway - NCEP seemed to intimate that the Euro is an excessive outlier, which given that result ...not hard to imagine that as being the case. usually the bottom of the skew t is 1050mb perhaps that's where you are getting that value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 you are right tho with the extrapolation, ecm has 43c at ash just because it has 43C doesn't mean the dry adiabatic extrapolation is correct. Ask anyone who forecasts...you add 13-15C on to the 850mb temperature to get the surface temperature in low elevation areas. This usually works well in sunshine and in the warm season. In favored torch areas, superadiabatic layers right near the ground can add probably 1 or 2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 wow...even the GFS has 850mb temps of about 24C in BWI on both Thursday and Friday evening. Still pushes the front through SNE much faster than the Euro...but keeps severe potential around SNE. Thursday and Saturday for the best potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I wonder if today may end up being the warmest for some in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I wonder if today may end up being the warmest for some in SNE. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 What? Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Just sayin'. You'll hit 100 on Friday and probably Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 You'll hit 100 on Friday and probably Saturday We'll see. That would be a 10F bust on BOX's part at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Just sayin'. 94 ain't going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Just sayin'. Going to struggle to top 90 today, let alone 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 94 ain't going to happen I agree. I've noticed that BOX tends to run 2-3F too warm for TAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Warmest morning I can remember in a while. 77. 92 here already and the temp is going up quickly, even on a SW wind off the "water"-- this time of the year a SW wind does not cool us down lol. We are hotter than the city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I agree. I've noticed that BOX tends to run 2-3F too warm for TAN. you're going to get real warm on Thursday and Friday imo. I think BOX is too low. Euro ensemble mean has 850mb temps of 22-23C on both days. Those forecast for Thursday and Friday are basically straight GFS MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 you're going to get real warm on Thursday and Friday imo. I think BOX is too low. Euro ensemble mean has 850mb temps of 22-23C on both days. Those forecast for Thursday and Friday are basically straight GFS MOS. Probably, but why the large discrepancy today? It's 85F at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Extended MOS has 97 for BOS. 96 for TAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Probably, but why the large discrepancy today? It's 85F at 1pm. idk...850s are 17c-18c right now...even with straight sunshine and no convection 94 would be difficult imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 idk...850s are 17c-18c right now...even with straight sunshine and no convection 94 would be difficult imo. Im surprised you guys arent warmer-- JFK is 92 right now and rising 3 degrees per hour with a SW wind at 21 mph, same thing here, about 2.5 miles off the ocean, an onshore wind isnt having an effect, so it cant be that. I think we can top 100 Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 you're going to get real warm on Thursday and Friday imo. I think BOX is too low. Euro ensemble mean has 850mb temps of 22-23C on both days. Those forecast for Thursday and Friday are basically straight GFS MOS. Those have a decent chance of cooling a couple degrees. The Euro's summer heat fetish is pretty well known in the medium range. Usually about 3-5 times per summer it will try and bring 22-25C 850s in here only to be more like 20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I would suggest a trip to Philly or Baltimore for anyone that wants to experience 100F late this week. ALB has torched all the way to a muggy 77/70 at 1 PM. I'm down in Chester, NY...Orange County above the nw NJ line. Feels well into the 80s here. idk...850s are 17c-18c right now...even with straight sunshine and no convection 94 would be difficult imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I would suggest a trip to Philly or Baltimore for anyone that wants to experience 100F late this week. ALB has torched all the way to a muggy 77/70 at 1 PM. I'm down in Chester, NY...Orange County above the nw NJ line. Feels well into the 80s here. No, I want them here dammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Im surprised you guys arent warmer-- JFK is 92 right now and rising 3 degrees per hour with a SW wind at 21 mph, same thing here, about 2.5 miles off the ocean, an onshore wind isnt having an effect, so it cant be that. I think we can top 100 Thursday and Friday. That's crazy. 73.1/67 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 usually the bottom of the skew t is 1050mb perhaps that's where you are getting that value. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 No the bottom of the standard Skew T isn't 1050mb or do you mean you aren't going that far to the bottom? I put 25C (298.15K) into the potential temperature equation using 850mb as the top of the BL and 1000mb as the bottom. I get 39.2C as the potential temperature...ie... the surface temp. The skew-T seems to give me somewhere around 40C...though I don't have a large enough to get more precise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 the bottom of the standard Skew T isn't 1050mb or do you mean you aren't going that far to the bottom? I put 25C (298.15K) into the potential temperature equation using 850mb as the top of the BL and 1000mb as the bottom. I get 39.2C as the potential temperature...ie... the surface temp. The skew-T seems to give me somewhere around 40C...though I don't have a large enough to get more precise. Sorry not lot of time. no meaning i wasn't going to 1050 - the skew t i have dosn't go below SSLP (1012). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 That's crazy. 73.1/67 here. Our dewpoints are close to the same lol (68-69 here), got to a high of 93 before the sea breeze kicked in but it seems to be backing around again and we're into the low 90s again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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