CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Interesting sentiment/observation. I just did the once over of the various free products and concluded with a high degree of confidence, regardless of whatever emergent reason to slip boundaries around and stop the best magnitude aside, it should in the least be a 10 day stretch of above normal temperatures. Obviously we saw this coming... Back on the 4th we made that thread about post Fourth looking summery - at the time, it was a matter of time before we arrived on the doorstop of this. Quick comment: the 12, 18z, 00z and 06z runs starting yesterday morning, of the operational GFS, are subtly downplaying this. The model still builds/repositions the ridge to north side of 594dm and over the eastern OV/MA regions, but hammers the top of it like a relic of the -AO. Moreover, it's like an antsy 9 year-old squirming in its seat because it just can't wait to drill the whole pattern back to something like June in the extended now. I have no idea whether that will happen or not (but suspect it is premature), but the result is a screaming mid lvl balanced geopotential wind field over some 60kts blowing quasi-zonally over the flattened top of the ridge across southern Canada, the northern tier and NE. That's a pretty solid discerned jet for mid July! The Euro on the other hand punches the 588dm contour N of BOS/BUF, allowing more unadulterated heat invasion and more like a standard summer heat model result. I just thought it important to point out those differences because a GFS verification would muddy the big heat signal in lieu of some transient convection and short duration relief intervals. The Euro ...heh, 102F at least one day at Logon probably... Wow, the 00z had at least one afternoon of +24C at 850mb over interior eastern SNE during that stretch, on a west wind with low cloud level RH. Could see that being 102/67 should that verify. That all said, I don't think from a forecasting point of view this is a cut and dry period of assessment. There are reasons to see why the GFS solution (or the like) could plague. There are reasons to see why the Euro is right, when combined with NCEPs lag correlation study showing that heights overall have been too negative in SE Canada. The immediate terms - through Thursday morning - are going to be above normal anyway. We should easily crack 90 today, and may flirt tomorrow prior to some late fun. Then we get a 2-day DP reprieve, but with 850s still in that 16-17C range, we end up with dry heat on a light to variable NW wind that goes SW by late Wednesday as the frontalysis is complete and that little bubble high melds into the Bermuda like circulation. There could be some relief at Logan and shore areas as those wind types tend to bend onshore with day-time heating and the local Hadley cell. In that time obviously we'll get a better handle on what this "big" heat will mean for us. For those going to Baltimore? ....one word, pain. Despite the GFS look of possibly muting the heat a bit, it's a convective dream for weatherwiz. That would be pretty impressive to see something like the 06z had. DOn't forget you have that dewpoint axis right just below the westerlies...usually. That would be fun.....if that were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Impressive to see FIT/BOS jump all the way to 88 by 11am - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Looks like today might be the warmest I've had in many weeks--though I'd have to verify. Already 81.7/62 and it's only 1;00P.M.! Yesterday topped out at 80.3, but I was at my in-law's in Joe's country (Westport, CT). Talk about torch!! Couldn't get an accurate temp read, but it was scorching on their deck. What ridculously expensive houses. His is a meager $1.6, the new one being built next door is $1.8. And--the "Doug and Melissa" puzzle people (for those with kids) just built a 35m (yes, no decimal point between the 3 and 5). Wish it wasn't hidden, would like to have seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Looks like today might be the warmest I've had in many weeks--though I'd have to verify. Already 81.7/62 and it's only 1;00P.M.! Yesterday topped out at 80.3, but I was at my in-law's in Joe's country (Westport, CT). What ridculously expensive houses. His is a meager $1.6, the new one being built next door is $1.8. And--the "Doug and Melissa" puzzle people (for those with kids) just built a 35m (yes, no decimal point between the 3 and 5). Wish it wasn't hidden, would like to have seen it. Torching pretty good here in Portland. PWM checking in at 90/57. At least that 57F dewpoint is keeping the obnoxiousness in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Torching pretty good here in Portland. PWM checking in at 90/57. At least that 57F dewpoint is keeping the obnoxiousness in check. Wow--PWM's 90? When I lived in Bath, I'm not sure if we ever hit 90. Usually a breeze off the Kenebec would kick in to keep things in check.. Thinking I might need to get a "deck-temp" thermometer to measure the really comfortably cool deck we just built. I was skeptical of the deck as it's on the north side of the house. But, it gets fuill sun from abou 8:;45 until noon. Fully shaded by 1:00 and delightful.in spite of the 82.7/63 torch that the Davis is reading. Nice light breeze, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Not sure what to make of this but the 12z GFS almost fails to produce the ridge entirely at this point... This model has been muting this signal gradually per every run going back 24 hours now. 12z Euro might be interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wow--PWM's 90? When I lived in Bath, I'm not sure if we ever hit 90. Usually a breeze off the Kenebec would kick in to keep things in check.. Thinking I might need to get a "deck-temp" thermometer to measure the really comfortably cool deck we just built. I was skeptical of the deck as it's on the north side of the house. But, it gets fuill sun from abou 8:;45 until noon. Fully shaded by 1:00 and delightful.in spite of the 82.7/63 torch that the Davis is reading. Nice light breeze, too. Stout westerly wind is doing the deed for PWM. IWI is 86F. It's warm, especially so in the sun, but the dews being < 60F are pretty comfy. No real complaints by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Interesting omission by NCEP, and shows it would be unwise to toss seasonal propensity to mute heat in the east at least excuse imaginable: ALSO OF NOTE...MULTI-DAY MEANS BY D+7/D+8 HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH A CORE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES JUST S OF THE ERN ALEUTIANS AND A CORE OF NEGATIVE ANOMALIES JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THESE FEATURES FAVOR AT LEAST MODEST EAST COAST TROFFING. IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR THE TELECONNECTION-FAVORED FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IF THIS RELATIONSHIP IS CORRECT...BUT AT LEAST IT RECOMMENDS HEDGING AWAY FROM THE STRONG ERN CONUS RIDGE SEEN IN ECMWF RUNS BY DAY 7 SUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Interesting omission by NCEP, and shows it would be unwise to toss seasonal propensity to mute heat in the east at least excuse imaginable: ALSO OF NOTE...MULTI-DAY MEANS BY D+7/D+8 HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH A CORE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES JUST S OF THE ERN ALEUTIANS AND A CORE OF NEGATIVE ANOMALIES JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THESE FEATURES FAVOR AT LEAST MODEST EAST COAST TROFFING. IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR THE TELECONNECTION-FAVORED FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IF THIS RELATIONSHIP IS CORRECT...BUT AT LEAST IT RECOMMENDS HEDGING AWAY FROM THE STRONG ERN CONUS RIDGE SEEN IN ECMWF RUNS BY DAY 7 SUN. GFS is hot very later this week, but yeah then troughing comes along by next week. At least it offers the chance of convection, instead of a capped, stagnant airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 84.3/65 Kids are using the slip n slide and pool combo... A mini water park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wow..just look at the obs out of the eastern Dakotas and into MN. Lots of dews near 80 and even lower 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wow..just look at the obs out of the eastern Dakotas and into MN. Lots of dews near 80 and even lower 80s. Let"s get that in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 That is a filthy looking national map... Brownouts possible later this week in New England due to excessive AC useage, except in West Chesterfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 in a few days the average temp starts its decline!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Stout westerly wind is doing the deed for PWM. IWI is 86F. It's warm, especially so in the sun, but the dews being < 60F are pretty comfy. No real complaints by me. Too bad they closed BNS. It was convenient having that and Wiscassett as goal posts for me. 83.2/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wow..just look at the obs out of the eastern Dakotas and into MN. Lots of dews near 80 and even lower 80s. My birthplace of Owatonna, MN (KOWA) is 90/79. Air so thick you can cut it with a Stihl. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 My birthplace of Owatonna, MN (KOWA) is 90/79. Air so thick you can cut it with a Stihl. No thanks. So much for going to the northern US to escape the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Isn't the SPC stuff automated on the weekends in regards to probs? Wiz is flipping out over nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Isn't the SPC stuff automated on the weekends in regards to probs? Wiz is flipping out over nothing Hopefully we are under altostratus all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Hopefully we are under altostratus all day. I would think we'll have 30% chance tomorrow morning when we see the early AM update. 91 at BDL...TORCH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I would think we'll have 30% chance tomorrow morning when we see the early AM update. 91 at BDL...TORCH!!! Today is day 198 of 2011 without a 90F reading in YBY. Getting past today means we are a lock for 200 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 So much for going to the northern US to escape the heat. ECM doesn't appear to be backing off it's idea of more ridging. Friday is a flame-thrower day with even Kevin crying mercy. 100F with ease if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 ECM doesn't appear to be backing off it's idea of more ridging. Friday is a flame-thrower day with even Kevin crying mercy. 100F with ease if this verifies. Well the back appears to be broken by Monday of next week.....for now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 So much for going to the northern US to escape the heat. The nation's icebox INL is 88/73. Pretty sick for that area. Doubtless double-digit deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Today is day 198 of 2011 without a 90F reading in YBY. Getting past today means we are a lock for 200 now. Upper 80's in our BY's is a torch when BDL is 90+. It's relative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I think your snow pack will be gone after this week... My friend is skiing on Mt.Shasta, Ca today. I'm jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 85/59 now here.... Too hot for me, but bearable. I haven't used the a/c yet - will make a judgement this evening when we see how fast it can cool off. Upper 80's in our BY's is a torch when BDL is 90+. It's relative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 84/64, a high of 85, a very warm day but a very busy wind has things at least tolerable. Off to walk 18 at 1700' where it's in the upper 70's currently. Like clockwork the warmest stretch of the summer occuring towards the end of July. We're almost through the worst time of year. Just a little farther and it's smooth sailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The GFS pretty much kills the best heat for here after Friday with that fropa. Saturday would be like 80-85 and less humid here.. Gotta love that big trough next week. So Thur/Fri are the two obnoxious days and maybe our best shot in '11 for 90 degrees here. 85/59 now here.... Too hot for me, but bearable. I haven't used the a/c yet - will make a judgement this evening when we see how fast it can cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 LOL, gotta love the diversity in these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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