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Mid July SNE Torch en route!


HoarfrostHubb

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  On 7/20/2011 at 3:19 PM, CoastalWx said:

Friday and Saturday will be the hottest for you. It will be hot tomorrow, but breezy sw winds will temper it just a bit.

Just great. I need to get get going on excavating (patio) out an area for a hot tub we got from my wife's parents and I was hoping for somewhat of a respite.:thumbsdown:

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  On 7/20/2011 at 3:03 PM, Logan11 said:

It's gonna be a tough four days in Chesterfield where they don't believe in air conditioning. ;) I'm about to flip mine on after a week of rest.

Are you really? What's the temp there? Looks like tomorrow night will be the once every few years that AC might be a welcome thing. But, no need to waste money on something that is needed so rarely.

77.8/68 at the Pit.

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Would it be shorter for you to go to like Hampton Beach, NH? I know some people in ENY go there, but Cape Cod is by far the main beach vacation destination for people from around here and that's a four + hour drive. No such thing as a day trip to an ocean beach from here of course.

  On 7/20/2011 at 3:20 PM, HubbDave said:

Stick to body surfing.

I love the beach, just hate the 2 hour drive

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  On 7/20/2011 at 3:20 PM, CT Blizz said:

Hotter in SNE or BWI?

If Friday can torch with west winds and we have no convective debris...it's possible some spots might eek out BWI by a degree. However the heat index may be worse there, but models also show some tstm activity to their west. I think overall it will be a hair warmer there, tomorrow and Friday.

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It's 80 outside now...after a nice low of 59.

I could hold off till tonight, but I think I'd use more energy if I let the house get up over 80 and have to cool it. So given the nasty sleeping situation tonight I'm using it. I've had it off since Tuesday evening a week ago. This heat wave looks atrocious and I'm not as tough as Pete.

quote name='moneypitmike' timestamp='1311175415' post='821633']

Are you really? What's the temp there? Looks like tomorrow night will be the once every few years that AC might be a welcome thing. But, no need to waste money on something that is needed so rarely.

77.8/68 at the Pit.

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  On 7/20/2011 at 3:25 PM, Logan11 said:

Would it be shorter for you to go to like Hampton Beach, NH? I know some people in ENY go there, but Cape Cod is by far the main beach vacation destination for people from around here and that's a four + hour drive. No such thing as a day trip to an ocean beach from here of course.

Hampton is nasty.

SRI or Westport are much better and a similar drive. Gloucester, MA has a good beach, as does Maine. Ginxy has the perfect spot.

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This is the hottest I - personally - have ever seen the thermal fields modeled on the FRH grid for any location betwee NY and Boston:

54000485121 -1094 092708 83362718

This is LGA's virtual sounding and has +36C at 980... I have never seen +27C at 900mb on this grid, which is what that 3rd douple value has... This is probably 40 or 41C in the 2-meter, or 104/105'ish if verified... for LGA...

Boston is 3226 ... probably 99 for that same time, 18z Friday... Again, my experience is that the NAM will tend to close BOS closer to LGA as the time gets inside of 48 hours on these WSW wind/warm sector scenarios.

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  On 7/20/2011 at 3:27 PM, CoastalWx said:

If Friday can torch with west winds and we have no convective debris...it's possible some spots might eek out BWI by a degree. However the heat index may be worse there, but models also show some tstm activity to their west. I think overall it will be a hair warmer there, tomorrow and Friday.

Do we have any shot of storms down there? Doesn't look like it

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NYC is going to be a nightmare of filth, heat, humidity and sweaty people. The subways will be like hell. I'm so glad I didn't have any work to take me down there this week.

I'm going out I-90 to the little town of Lyons...midway betwen SYR and ROC to a courthouse, etc. tommorow. Should be stifling hot, but not like dealing with it in an urban area.

  On 7/20/2011 at 3:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

This is the hottest I - personally - have ever seen the thermal fields modeled on the FRH grid for any location betwee NY and Boston:

54000485121 -1094 092708 83362718

This is LGA's virtual sounding and has +36C at 980... I have never seen +27C at 900mb on this grid, which is what that 3rd douple value has... This is probably 40 or 41C in the 2-meter, or 104/105'ish if verified... for LGA...

Boston is 3226 ... probably 99 for that same time, 18z Friday... Again, my experience is that the NAM will tend to close BOS closer to LGA as the time gets inside of 48 hours on these WSW wind/warm sector scenarios.

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It may have been Ryan who pointed this out the other night and it appears to be occurring now... The smoke plume is clearing from the W and rather abruptly there is a modest CU field showing up just post the western rim of it... interesting. It is probably muting - so far - our temperature potential for today by a couple degrees.

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  On 7/20/2011 at 3:43 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

It may have been Ryan who pointed this out the other night and it appears to be occurring now... The smoke plume is clearing from the W and rather abruptly there is a modest CU field showing up just post the western rim of it... interesting. It is probably muting - so far - our temperature potential for today by a couple degrees.

Conditoins here are far from sunny. More overcast than anything.

78.4/69. Not too bad for noon.

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  On 7/20/2011 at 3:34 PM, CT Blizz said:

Do we have any shot of storms down there? Doesn't look like it

Well models are showing stuff to their west so I guess it's not impossible, but it could be totally capped. GFS tries to bring something through here tomorrow night.

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  On 7/20/2011 at 2:38 PM, CT Blizz said:

How is the possible hottest temp ever at many of the SNE stations overhyped? If some of the modelling is correct..all time records have a very real chance of happening. BDL hit 91 yesterday BTW..thru a smoke filled sky no less

:lol:

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  On 7/20/2011 at 4:13 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

look at the year these were set:

FRIDAY JULY 22ND:

BOS...103 IN 1926

ORH...99 IN 1926

PVD...100 IN 1926

BDL...101 IN 1926

speaks volumes, imo, about the climate. LOL. take away almost a century of urban heat island and you had those numbers in the 1920s. imagine that brutal airmass.

40-65 inches region wide that winter, sounds good.

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Once again the GFS has bounced back to its former position of showing a decent cool down later Saturday through Sunday here. By cool down I mean from low 90's Friday to upper 80's Saturday to low/mid 80's and less humid Sunday.

I hope it verifies.....

  On 7/20/2011 at 4:24 PM, Ginx said:

40-65 inches region wide that winter, sounds good.

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I'm thinking this airmass Thur/Fri is the purest discharge of the supper hot airmass though. I doubt next weeks is quite as hot and the sun angle is a week lower. IMO this the heatwave of the summer. :(

  On 7/20/2011 at 4:56 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, i've been mentioning this for awhile now... Like to see the 12z ECM on that, though it's extended kinda stunks deez days

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  On 7/20/2011 at 4:58 PM, Logan11 said:

I'm thinking this airmass Thur/Fri is the purest discharge of the supper hot airmass though. I doubt next weeks is quite as hot and the sun angle is a week lower. IMO this the heatwave of the summer. :(

Perhaps ... Keep in mind though that the hottest readings in our neck of the woods are August found. Also, one thing I am noticing about that big ridge signaled is that the lower troposphere is out of phase with the mid-lvls, ...kinda of keeping with your "purest" idea. In this case, the height may balloon but the llv gradient may not be available to transport. Of course, ...could all just be depictions errors due to the long lead, too.

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also, folks watch the convection over/near Lake Superior... Models have convective QPF migrating through S/SE Ontario and deflecting that E of us but I have my worries... These MCS tend to ...well, ALWAYS go S of guidance as they tend to turn SE along the geopotential isopleth gradient - why the models can't physically handle that I am not sure.. Anyway, we see what it did in southern lower Michigan with MCS that punch into the ridge, and they are just now 80F in a few locations where there is Heat Warn underway.

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