tombo82685 Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yea tom, the hottest for the euro is friday with temps in the philly metro 100 to 105. Thursday is 95 to 100 then the rest of the days are uppers 80s to low 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The Wxsim module has NW Chesco peaking at 97 on Friday (with highs as follow) Monday 89 Tues 90 Wed 92 Thurs 94 Fri 97 Sat 95 We have only hit 90 - 3 times so far this year. That 97 on Friday would be the highest I have ever recorded at this location (since 2004) Highest so far for my station is 95.7 on July 6, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 lol u can't look at each model run and say "heat cancel" or like many people do during the winter when they say "storm cancel"...It's the pattern. The GFS did drop a 2 day trough after 240 in the long range but how many times has it been right? Very rarely. Besides that, it has a cool bias. This pattern, a very hot one, is well teleconnected.100+ is rare, so I wouldn't surprised if we don't get that threshold but 95-98 looks like a good bet for at least 3 days.Plus low 90's rest of period. where did anybody say heat cancel? comment was specifically addressing an individual model run that indicated a significant change from the previous run and nothing to do with any pattern assessment Philadelphia has recorded 100 or better on 59 occasions so an AVE of once every 2.3 yrs is hardly rare FWIW 12Z GFS held serve so we'll see how it plays out Sparky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 12z euro has the region in 95-100 degree temps on thurs and friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 0z MEX guidance has PNE and PHL at 99 on Friday. Mount Holly is forecasting 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Looks like the GFS tries to backdoor on Friday night...temps drop down to low 90's Sat, 90 on Sun @ PHL...EC probably 5 degrees higher on Sat/Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 0z euro has 95-100 thursday, on friday and saturday wide area of 95-100 with 100-105 in the philly area. Sunday a small area of 95-100 over the philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Ok, so I thought the heat would end on Sunday, but does anyone have any idea what is forcing the full latitude trough in the models next week? The only thing I can figure is the big mountain torque event at the end of last week, but that was over the Himalayas, not the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DerekZ Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 NWS forecast highs / Maximum heat index forecast for PHL from HPC: Wed 7/20: 92 / 97 Thur 7/21: 96 / 109 Fri 7/22: 100 / 112, with 36% chance of exceeding 115 Sat 7/23: 97 / 108 Sun 7/24: 98 / 106 See http://www.hpc.ncep....itable_PHL.html Also check out national map at http://www.hpc.ncep....index_MAX.shtml Anyone have maximum heat index values from 7/6/10 and 7/7/10 for comparison? Since dewpoints didn't get above 70 in that heat wave I don't think we got over 105 for the heat index at any point, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 As I said before given euro's waffling with temps I think mid-to upper 90's thursday thru saturday is realistic. The hottest will be in the cities and I think places like chester county don't go above 95 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 One thing to remember is that air with more moisture doesn't heat up as fast as dry air. So last year when we went 2 or 3 degrees above the forecast high every day is not to be expected this year. Unfortunately it will feel even more oppressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 92 already at 11:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 NWS forecast highs / Maximum heat index forecast for PHL from HPC: Wed 7/20: 92 / 97 Thur 7/21: 96 / 109 Fri 7/22: 100 / 112, with 36% chance of exceeding 115 Sat 7/23: 97 / 108 Sun 7/24: 98 / 106 See http://www.hpc.ncep....itable_PHL.html Also check out national map at http://www.hpc.ncep....index_MAX.shtml Anyone have maximum heat index values from 7/6/10 and 7/7/10 for comparison? Since dewpoints didn't get above 70 in that heat wave I don't think we got over 105 for the heat index at any point, but I could be wrong. Wow, didn't even know maps like that existed. Thanks for the links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 One thing to remember is that air with more moisture doesn't heat up as fast as dry air. So last year when we went 2 or 3 degrees above the forecast high every day is not to be expected this year. Unfortunately it will feel even more oppressive though. Again, I think that will depend on whether this evening's rain pans out. I think we're already dry enough to see minimal effect from ground moisture. If the rain fails to materialize and we have another 3 days of sun baking the ground, the stage is set for triple digit highs in many places. I know IMBY, I've been matching PHL highs almost to the degree the last several days. I'm typically several lower. Yesterday, 89.6 for me, PHL 90. PHL has had 3 times the rainfall this month that I've had. .48" vs. 1.51" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DerekZ Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Updated 4pm EDT, 7/18 NWS forecast highs / Maximum heat index forecast for PHL from HPC: Thur 7/21: 98 / 105 Fri 7/22: 102 / 112, with 20% chance of exceeding 115 Sat 7/23: 98 / 104 Sun 7/24: 95 / 99 See http://www.hpc.ncep....itable_PHL.html Also check out national map at http://www.hpc.ncep....index_MAX.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Mt.Holly Sill going with mid 90's on Saturday and low 90's Sunday and Monday for my area. THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS (AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET JOINING) ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LOWER TEMPS AND POSSIBLY LOWER DEW POINTS ON THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA ON SATURDAY AND STALL. THIS MIGHT HELP BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. IT ALSO SHOULD BRING SLIGHT RELIEF AS PER THE ECMWF AND GREATER RELIEF PER THE GFS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 500MB RIDGE, WE ARE GOING TO SIDE TOWARD THE ECMWF ON THIS. SO WHILE SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN QUOTES COOLER, ITS BECAUSE THE BAR WILL BE SET VERY HIGH ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD START BACKING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND ANY RELATIVE RELIEF WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SHOULD EB CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. ONCE AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE FRONT`S PROXIMITY WE KEPT IN SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 Euro continues to pound friday as the hottest day of the year with 100-105 for the philly area. With thursday and saturday in the 95-100 degree range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 0z Euro backs off a tad on Friday -- generally 95-100 for everyone locally (as well as Thursday)...a notch cooler for Saturday but still 95ish for PHL. Not too gung ho (at this point) on 100 @ PHL...I don't think it really matters since it's going to be a steambath with humidity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 We are going to fry Thurs-Sat. It is beyond bone dry in my area.......that will help aid the heat. I guess the only plus side is that the humidity shouldn't be as bad as it would be if we had had some decent rain over the past couple weeks. I'm thinking ILG sees 103 on Friday....maybe 104. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 We are going to fry Thurs-Sat. It is beyond bone dry in my area.......that will help aid the heat. I guess the only plus side is that the humidity shouldn't be as bad as it would be if we had had some decent rain over the past couple weeks. I'm thinking ILG sees 103 on Friday....maybe 104. I doubt that ilg will go above 100 on Friday, however where ilg is located (new castle) is along with the city the warmest spot in delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 We are going to fry Thurs-Sat. It is beyond bone dry in my area.......that will help aid the heat. I guess the only plus side is that the humidity shouldn't be as bad as it would be if we had had some decent rain over the past couple weeks. I'm thinking ILG sees 103 on Friday....maybe 104. A met can correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I understand soil moisture has only a limited effect on humidity. The amount of evapotranspiration of soil moisture can produce slight increases in the dewpoint, most notable when looking at overnight lows, but we can still have a humid airmass with dry soil. As of 10:54am, DPs across PHL's CWA range from 67-72, despite very dry soil in most places. Last July, our heat wave featured DPs in the 40s, maybe cracking 50 at one point. While there was less rainfall last summer, that does not account for a 20-25 degree difference in dewpoint between the two events. In other words, what I'm saying is it will still be just as humid as it was forecast to be 3 days ago, even without last night's rain. I think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 12z nam is going 102 for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The nam....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 The nam....lol what about it? you think its to high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 what about it? you think its to high? With that wind direction it sure is likely to be more right than wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 If this heat is going to last for several days, I want it to be topping 100. Here's hoping we do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 If this heat is going to last for several days, I want it to be topping 100. Here's hoping we do it. Personally, I hope it doesn't. It's not like we haven't had record heat for a while. Chances of beating last year's temps are slim. It will feel bad either way, though. Maybe the Euro is right - we'll see what the 12z Euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 what about it? you think its to high? looks like it hits about 103 in philly 21utc friday and dewpoint of 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 what about it? you think its to high? Yes I would think it's 2 or 3 degrees too high, but I do think that philly as well as pottstown and newark nj will all reach at or near 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 What's crazy is the NAM is usually too cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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