ptb127 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 12z euro backed off on the heat bigtime...the hottest it gets is 94 to 95, its draping some kind of backdoor cold front over us. While susquehanna river west get pretty darn hott, east of there runs chance of storms and not as hot 0z euro brings back the heat big time....euro and gfs ensembles agree as well as CMC and others. Looks like amazing model agreement for big time heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 6abc posted 100 for friday thats pretty balzy 7 days out I wouldn't go 100 that far out...it's like forecasting a blizzard a week out or subzero lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 0z Euro generally tops out in the mid/upper 90's based surface view and on 850 rule (100+ possible from DC into VA though). No 24 on the 850 level though locally... GFS is a bit warmer across the board and has the 24 C isotherm lurking nearby Friday and Saturday. 100 is more possible based on GFS but no surface site locally in the Del Val hits it (but it does go above that in DC, MD, and VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Man, looking at the models, mos guidance and reading other info on here, my prognostication of this upcoming week is "this is gonna suck!" haha. It's going to be a scorcher this week. Time to start hydrating for the week ahead. Anyone wanna work for me?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 0z euro brings back the heat big time....euro and gfs ensembles agree as well as CMC and others. Looks like amazing model agreement for big time heat Oh the models are so reliable...back and forth, back and forth, it gives one great confidence...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 0z euro brings back the heat big time....euro and gfs ensembles agree as well as CMC and others. Looks like amazing model agreement for big time heat Why can't these models agree like this in the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 0z Euro generally tops out in the mid/upper 90's based surface view and on 850 rule (100+ possible from DC into VA though). No 24 on the 850 level though locally... GFS is a bit warmer across the board and has the 24 C isotherm lurking nearby Friday and Saturday. 100 is more possible based on GFS but no surface site locally in the Del Val hits it (but it does go above that in DC, MD, and VA). euro is going 95-100 for the philly metro area friday, saturday, and sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 GFS nudges a bit cooler in the midday run, generally mid 90's max thru Sat, Sunday perhaps the hottest day of the bunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The pattern stays generally the same from 0z.. don't know why it cools down. Something that maybe some pro mets on here and chime in about, but it's getting awfully dry out there. Wouldn't that lead to the ridge being stronger then depicted? Also wouldn't that lead to the heat being slightly hotter then anticipated too? I remember hearing/reading about the feedback before, but looking for some clarification now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 Yea ptb dry ground helps temps sore faster. When the ground is wet it kind of dampens out out a little. Wrong thread but i think we will see some good t storm activity next week with battling of the heat ridge and the front draping around the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Euro is redic hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The pattern stays generally the same from 0z.. don't know why it cools down. Something that maybe some pro mets on here and chime in about, but it's getting awfully dry out there. Wouldn't that lead to the ridge being stronger then depicted? Also wouldn't that lead to the heat being slightly hotter then anticipated too? I remember hearing/reading about the feedback before, but looking for some clarification now. Yea ptb dry ground helps temps sore faster. When the ground is wet it kind of dampens out out a little. Wrong thread but i think we will see some good t storm activity next week with battling of the heat ridge and the front draping around the northeast I think you guys are talking about two different phenomena. ptb, the dry feedback that's been occurring over the Southern Plains this summer helps create higher heights on the time scale of a week or so, with the creation of the maritime tropical airmass. The ridge that is coming our way is that airmass being advected eastward thanks to the trough on the West Coast. Tom is right, though, dry ground allows temperatures to increase more on a day scale because less solar energy is being wasted on evaporating water. Either way, it's hot though, because that evaporated water causes the dewpoint to increase relative to where it would be with dry ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 Euro is redic hot. actually its the coolest i've seen. It only has one day of 95-100 and one day of low to mid 90s and the rest in the upper 80s to near 90. We get tainted by t storm activity. from phl to mdt on north its drops .75 1.5 inches of rain from mcs activity and storms through the ten day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 actually its the coolest i've seen. It only has one day of 95-100 and one day of low to mid 90s and the rest in the upper 80s to near 90. We get tainted by t storm activity. from phl to mdt on north its drops .75 1.5 inches of rain from mcs activity and storms through the ten day period. With that ridge position I wouldn't take actually model temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 With that ridge position I wouldn't take actually model temperatures. im not taking anything it shows until i see it on my thermometer. Im just relaying what its showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 im not taking anything it shows until i see it on my thermometer. Im just relaying what its showing. Gotcha. Either way it's going to be hot. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 Gotcha. Either way it's going to be hot. lol yea, its going to be brutal. Only way i can see us avoiding the heat is if we get tainted with storms and clouds from t storm activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 yea, its going to be brutal. Only way i can see us avoiding the heat is if we get tainted with storms and clouds from t storm activity. I have a feeling it won't really rain at all. It'll stay north. But, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 I have a feeling it won't really rain at all. It'll stay north. But, we shall see. i think your area may fair better. It seems things are aimed on a nw to se positioning which may spare you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Dry begets Dry. It's going to be hot straight through the period, starting today which the high here was 90. Dews were 58 though so it wasn't humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 i think your area may fair better. It seems things are aimed on a nw to se positioning which may spare you. The mts will break up the MCS and we will get light rain rather then the heavy training t-storms. Its the way it has been the last three months even with the isolated stuff. I hope you are right but 1.5 to 2 inches of rain in my eyes is nothing. The forecasts have been this way the last two weeks. We need a MCS over eastern Ohio to form in the morning and head directly east instead of SE or NE like the past three weeks. Then we have a real chance and hopefully training thunderstorms instead of training drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The mts will break up the MCS and we will get light rain rather then the heavy training t-storms. Its the way it has been the last three months even with the isolated stuff. I hope you are right but 1.5 to 2 inches of rain in my eyes is nothing. The forecasts have been this way the last two weeks. We need a MCS over eastern Ohio to form in the morning and head directly east instead of SE or NE like the past three weeks. Then we have a real chance and hopefully training thunderstorms instead of training drizzle So thunderstorms break up over the mtns to NW but the larger & higher mtns to the west have no affect you really need to do some research on MCS's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The mts will break up the MCS and we will get light rain rather then the heavy training t-storms. Its the way it has been the last three months even with the isolated stuff. I hope you are right but 1.5 to 2 inches of rain in my eyes is nothing. The forecasts have been this way the last two weeks. We need a MCS over eastern Ohio to form in the morning and head directly east instead of SE or NE like the past three weeks. Then we have a real chance and hopefully training thunderstorms instead of training drizzle Don't MCS's in their later phases tend to turn and redevelop southeast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Don't MCS's in their later phases tend to turn and redevelop southeast ? I agree, they do tend to turn SE if the ridge stays in place. As far as mts go, all mts in PA can break up the MCS. Its the fact that we cannot get the MCS lately to stay together in Ohio or Michigan only to reach the ridge and valley regions of PA to completely die out. I too would like to know how the MCS will say together this time vs the isolated t-storms that have consistently fallen apart before they even reach eastern Pa the past three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 My Brian just melted after seeing the 0Z GFS. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 My Brian just melted after seeing the 0Z GFS. lol weekend blast furnance however backs way off on the extended torch next week from the 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 weekend blast furnance however backs way off on the extended torch next week from the 12Z run lol u can't look at each model run and say "heat cancel" or like many people do during the winter when they say "storm cancel"...It's the pattern. The GFS did drop a 2 day trough after 240 in the long range but how many times has it been right? Very rarely. Besides that, it has a cool bias. This pattern, a very hot one, is well teleconnected.100+ is rare, so I wouldn't surprised if we don't get that threshold but 95-98 looks like a good bet for at least 3 days.Plus low 90's rest of period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 0z euro has the big heat but a 240 hour trough that I have seen before only to evaporate at 12z. But it's very hot before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Don't MCS's in their later phases tend to turn and redevelop southeast ? They'll backbuild on their southern and western end and then dive south (southeast) as the northern part of the MCS runs into a more stable atmosphere on its eastward trek. The MCS is trying to sustain itself and using whatever instability it can to feed itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The Euro has a bit of a backdoor attempt on Saturday as 850's drop to around 20 and then bounce back after Sunday to above 20 C. The GFS is torch through Sunday and then a "cool" down. It's a semantic argument at this point about what defines "big" heat but generally the hottest of the stretch looks to be Friday/Saturday on the GFS, Friday on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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