phlwx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Euro still honks for heat on Thu-Sat...24-25 850's over the region all 3 days. The Euro in fantasy range...this could be a '95 type heat wave for much of the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 0z euro brings back the big heat has 2 days of 100-105 temps for philly area and one day 95-100. Starts next thursday per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 0z euro brings back the big heat has 2 days of 100-105 temps for philly area and one day 95-100. Starts next thursday per euro I keep thinking back to the Aug '06 heat wave and how the Euro for days on end kept blasting us with 24-25 850's and we at Eastern were certain 100 was a lock. Never topped 98 at PHL. We definitely will be hot and I don't think there's a question we make a run at 100...I think the 100+ stuff might be a bit much though...Euro sometimes gets a bit aggressive on the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I keep thinking back to the Aug '06 heat wave and how the Euro for days on end kept blasting us with 24-25 850's and we at Eastern were certain 100 was a lock. Never topped 98 at PHL. We definitely will be hot and I don't think there's a question we make a run at 100...I think the 100+ stuff might be a bit much though...Euro sometimes gets a bit aggressive on the torch. GFS is just as aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I keep thinking back to the Aug '06 heat wave and how the Euro for days on end kept blasting us with 24-25 850's and we at Eastern were certain 100 was a lock. Never topped 98 at PHL. We definitely will be hot and I don't think there's a question we make a run at 100...I think the 100+ stuff might be a bit much though...Euro sometimes gets a bit aggressive on the torch. Looking at the individual ensemble members (sorry I don't think I can post them here), it looks like Friday is the only day where the Euro ops is a significant outlier from the rest of the ensemble guidance. The ops is clearly one of the warmer members though. Model output doesn't support me, but I still think Saturday will be the hottest day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Looks like all of the models agree... we are going into a very hot pattern. Maybe not consistent 100 but definitely low to mid 90's with high dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I know I am probably beating a dead horse here, but I really think the recurving WNP typhoon is the root cause of this warmup and once that forcing is gone, we'll head back to the warm not hot pattern we've been in most of summer. Thur-Sun will be an intense shot of sultry weather, but by the 26th, I think we'll be back close to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I know I am probably beating a dead horse here, but I really think the recurving WNP typhoon is the root cause of this warmup and once that forcing is gone, we'll head back to the warm not hot pattern we've been in most of summer. Thur-Sun will be an intense shot of sultry weather, but by the 26th, I think we'll be back close to normal. Not to ask a dumb question but...WNP = western north Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Not to ask a dumb question but...WNP = western north Pacific? Yep Here is the composite response of the 250mb pattern across the Pacific-North America region 72 hrs after a recurving WNP typhoon (taken from Heather Archembault's presentation at the 2010 AMS Tropical Conference). You can see the Rossby wave train that develops over the Pacific, which is the forcing, imo, for the heat moving out of the Plains to the East late next week (Ma-on will officially recurve on Tuesday evening). This recurving TC teleconnection along with the SOI dailies is why I've been saying that Saturday will be the warmest day, even though the models are going for Friday right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Yep Here is the composite response of the 250mb pattern across the Pacific-North America region 72 hrs after a recurving WNP typhoon (taken from Heather Archembault's presentation at the 2010 AMS Tropical Conference). You can see the Rossby wave train that develops over the Pacific, which is the forcing, imo, for the heat moving out of the Plains to the East late next week (Ma-on will officially recurve on Tuesday evening). This recurving TC teleconnection along with the SOI dailies is why I've been saying that Saturday will be the warmest day, even though the models are going for Friday right now. At least I had that abbreviation correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 Yep Here is the composite response of the 250mb pattern across the Pacific-North America region 72 hrs after a recurving WNP typhoon (taken from Heather Archembault's presentation at the 2010 AMS Tropical Conference). You can see the Rossby wave train that develops over the Pacific, which is the forcing, imo, for the heat moving out of the Plains to the East late next week (Ma-on will officially recurve on Tuesday evening). This recurving TC teleconnection along with the SOI dailies is why I've been saying that Saturday will be the warmest day, even though the models are going for Friday right now. so theoretically, with the the storm recurving it displaces everything a notch further east from that map, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 I know I am probably beating a dead horse here, but I really think the recurving WNP typhoon is the root cause of this warmup and once that forcing is gone, we'll head back to the warm not hot pattern we've been in most of summer. Thur-Sun will be an intense shot of sultry weather, but by the 26th, I think we'll be back close to normal. the euro has saturday the hottest per the 0z run, with 100-105 around the phl metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 so theoretically, with the the storm recurving it displaces everything a notch further east from that map, correct? Right. That map is analogous to Friday evening and it looks pretty similar to the NH model progs right now. Add one more day and the core of the ridge should be right over the East Coast. After that, though, the wave train will dampen and we'll head back to the summer preferred pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Right. That map is analogous to Friday evening and it looks pretty similar to the NH model progs right now. Add one more day and the core of the ridge should be right over the East Coast. After that, though, the wave train will dampen and we'll head back to the summer preferred pattern. It pretty much makes sense as the latent heat that is released into the atmosphere from a tropical system (especially a powerful typhoon/hurricane) has downstream effects such as helping to build a ridge which then moves eastward in this case. Interesting stuff and how it is all tied together in one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Given the euro warm bias and being this far out, I would say mid to upper 90's is more realistic for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 100+ is very rare so saying that it's definitely going to happen is very risky.. 12z GFS is hot and humid from d5-d15... Hottest heat from 7-22 to 7-25 but then it goes from near 100 those days to 92-95 still hoT! :thumbsup: :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z euro backed off on the heat bigtime...the hottest it gets is 94 to 95, its draping some kind of backdoor cold front over us. While susquehanna river west get pretty darn hott, east of there runs chance of storms and not as hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z euro backed off on the heat bigtime...the hottest it gets is 94 to 95 Euro has been pretty crappy. I don't trust it. Looks hotter out my way though. 850's 24-26 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z euro backed off on the heat bigtime...the hottest it gets is 94 to 95, its draping some kind of backdoor cold front over us. While susquehanna river west get pretty darn hott, east of there runs chance of storms and not as hot Surprise...not. EURO always overdoes heat in D7+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 GFS is just as aggressive. It was not as aggressive in last night's run...GFS didn't break 24 C at 850 at all locally. Euro did in last night's run. That is, unless you define aggressive as 95 and not 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 12z euro backed off on the heat bigtime...the hottest it gets is 94 to 95, its draping some kind of backdoor cold front over us. While susquehanna river west get pretty darn hott, east of there runs chance of storms and not as hot ridge center is farther west and doesn't get into our area compared to 0z. that allows a touch cooler air to back down. Perhaps the summer version of "energy holding back"? at 8 AM on Friday -- 12z had ridge center over KC, 0z was over St. Louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 ridge center is farther west and doesn't get into our area compared to 0z. that allows a touch cooler air to back down. Perhaps the summer version of "energy holding back"? at 8 AM on Friday -- 12z had ridge center over KC, 0z was over St. Louis honestly, i think it could be an interesting pattern regardless. Either A, we get the big heat and temps near 100 degrees. Or B, we get on the periphery of the heat ridge and run the chance of MCS's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 6abc posted 100 for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 6abc posted 100 for friday thats pretty balzy 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 I don't find MCS exciting lol... but the teleconnections are saying that this ridge is moving east and the models are going to be playing catch up.. I think 2-3 days of temps near 100 and then "cooling" off to 93-96 for the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 I don't find MCS exciting lol... but the teleconnections are saying that this ridge is moving east and the models are going to be playing catch up.. I think 2-3 days of temps near 100 and then "cooling" off to 93-96 for the extended. We don't hardly ever get MCS's out here. Heat is heat, whether its 100 degrees or not, it's nothing new. We've had close to 100 this year already. Any strong MCS would be nice, being we never get them this far east. Then again, I'm against the big heat, being I work outside, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 I love a good MCS, but if the order could be scheduled to arrive late next Saturday, I'd appreciate it. I don't want rain while I'm on vacation in North Wildwood for a week starting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 ugh...what are the chances of seeing temps in the mid 70s instead with a backdoor cold front only and the ridge staying to the west? no air conditioning in the building i take classes in so when it gets to 85+ it starts to get pretty uncomfortable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 0z MOS for my area is crazy hot.. I mean predicting 96 by end of period when it's usually trying to lower temps closer to climo and usually has to be addressed higher..This still looks to be the real deal http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KAVP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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