tombo82685 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 This is for surely not set in stone, but i definitely think its worth monitoring. Both the euro and the gfs bring in some big heat to the region. The 12z gfs brought 2 days of temperatures around 98-100 degrees for the region. The 12z euro has one day of 95-100 for the region and 2 days of temperatures of 100-105. Again, im not saying this is going to happen, im just mentioning the possibility of this occurring since its about 8 days away. Below is the 18z gfs 2m temps, and the 2m temps for the hottest day for the 12z euro for next friday light red 85-90 red 90-95 pink 95-100 white 100-105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Ya it going to be hot. Map for possible heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Its a good heads up either way. If heights build like the Euro shows, plenty of room for things to heat up as depicted in your maps above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I mentioned it in the other thread, but this is a pretty classic response to a recurving WNP TC. So long at Ma-on gets up to Cat 4/5 strength, this pattern should be solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 PHL Record Highs around that time: 7/22-100 7/23-99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 Its a good heads up either way. If heights build like the Euro shows, plenty of room for things to heat up as depicted in your maps above. yea, the 850s are cooking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Ya it going to be hot. Map for possible heat wave. Oh geez, not another one already. Hopefully this heat is just wrongly depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I'm trying to remember what 850s and 500 mb heights reached last year during that stretch where temps. climbed between 100-105. Probably not too far off from this....maybe a tad higher than what the Euro is showing next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Looking forward to the heat... has been showing up for a few cycles now so it's not really a hiccup, at least I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 I'm trying to remember what 850s and 500 mb heights reached last year during that stretch where temps. climbed between 100-105. Probably not too far off from this....maybe a tad higher than what the Euro is showing next week? I believe it was around the 24c region. Whats going to be interesting is how much humidity builds in. Last year if i recall correctly it really wasn't that humid out which helped despite the triple digit heat. I remember last year waking up at 530 am and seeing 83 degrees out, not a great motivator to get out of bed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 Last yr it was july 6-7 when the triple digit heat struck, here are the 500mb hgts and 850s from then. Now compared to the euros forecasted 500 mb hgts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Last yr it was july 6-7 when the triple digit heat struck, here are the 500mb hgts and 850s from then. Now compared to the euros forecasted 500 mb hgts Wow, thanks for digging that up. Nice to use it as a comparison. And yes, last years heat was a dry heat (atleast in SE PA). Like an oven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 oz euro backed off on the heat a little... hottest day is 95-100. The euro has more of a backdoor presence. We are though as progged by the euro on edge of the heat bubble so that would increase the risk of possible MCS'S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 oz euro backed off on the heat a little... hottest day is 95-100. The euro has more of a backdoor presence. We are though as progged by the euro on edge of the heat bubble so that would increase the risk of possible MCS'S I know its a generalization vs specificity as to how hot, but the NAEFS has a near 100 percent chance if it being warmer than normal week two. Kind of hoping what the Euro has last night works since its been the summer pattern so far. Regardless the gaudy forecast 850mb temps give this one the potential to be the hottest of the summer so far. I haven't followed this comparison much this summer, but the euro ensemble mean has less of a backdoor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 oz euro backed off on the heat a little... hottest day is 95-100. The euro has more of a backdoor presence. We are though as progged by the euro on edge of the heat bubble so that would increase the risk of possible MCS'S I know its a generalization vs specificity as to how hot, but the naefs has a near 100 percent chance if it being warmer than normal next week. Kind of hoping what the Euro had last night works since its been the summer pattern so far. Regardless the gaudy forecast 850mb temps give this one the potential to challenge early June as the hottest of the summer so far. I haven't followed this comparison much this summer, but the euro ensemble mean has less of a backdoor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Thanks for the heads up. The AC broke yesterday. Looks like I better make a phone call today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 It's the euro and it's more than 5 days out...nuff said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 pulling for the backdoor thing if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I mentioned it in the other thread, but this is a pretty classic response to a recurving WNP TC. So long at Ma-on gets up to Cat 4/5 strength, this pattern should be solid. It'll be worse in Chicago than here...reminds me somewhat of the '95 heat event in look...hopefully not intensity/duration. With that said, we have a shot at 100 on Thursday/Friday...not a "lock" but certainly not out of reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 It'll be worse in Chicago than here...reminds me somewhat of the '95 heat event in look...hopefully not intensity/duration. With that said, we have a shot at 100 on Thursday/Friday...not a "lock" but certainly not out of reach. I agree mostly. Chicago will probably have a longer duration heat wave with higher heat indices, but I think PHL has a better shot for the highest individual temperature (and I think it will be over the weekend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Ugh, at this. Don't think I've seen 80% before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 Per the 12z euro, the hottest days are next thursday and friday with temps approaching 100 before a front swings through on the weekend to cool us down. One silver lining is before the heat we get .5-1 of rain tuesday with some sort of backdoor cold front, which retreats a day later. Below is the hottest day shown by the euro, which is next friday. lgt red 85-90 red 90-95 pink 95-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Per the 12z euro, the hottest day are next thursday and friday with temps approaching 100 before a front swings through on the weekend to cool us down. One silver lining is before the heat we get .5-1 of rain tuesday with some sort of backdoor cold front, which retreat a day later. Below is the hottest day shown by the euro, which is next friday. lgt red 85-90 red 90-95 pink 95-100 That trough in the 12z Euro next weekend was a pretty big break in continuity and doesn't agree with the latest SOI dailies. Just my $.02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 That trough in the 12z Euro next weekend was a pretty big break in continuity and doesn't agree with the latest SOI dailies. Just my $.02. Granted this is way out, ten days, but the euro ens have the same look to them. I wonder if we increase the MCS threat if we find ourselves on the edge looking in at the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Granted this is way out, ten days, but the euro ens have the same look to them. I wonder if we increase the MCS threat if we find ourselves on the edge looking in at the heat. I think we get into that pattern, I'm just timing it a bit slower than the Euro right now. I actually hope the Euro is right, because I don't want to die of heat stroke in BWI next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 18 Z GFS is hellish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 18 Z GFS is hellish. yea the 18z is popping 97 for philly, so big heat over va though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I think triple digits are doable at the conference in BWI next thurs-fri-sat..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 i guess i should make an early tee time next friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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