Very good read- Joe Bastardi

[paweather5]

I was looking around to see what weather trends have been looking like and found this. I know its to early to talk winter but this is very interesting, Enjoy

http://www.statecollege.com/news/columns/c...he-past-792940/

[Clifford]

Good Historical Prospective.

One must always remember that once a century storms have to happen sometime. And some may not even be once a century storms, but calculated based on the standard deviation of weather patterns.

In Oregon:

Our "once a century" wind storm happened in 1962.

Our "once a century" floods happened in 1964.

Major snow storms in 1950, 1969, and even 2008.

(so the 60's wasn't a good decade for extreme weather).

This year, Mt Bachelor had 4^th of July Skiing for the first time in 16 years.

The storms that have been rocking the midwest and southeast are probably only a once every 30 year storms.

Keep in mind, of course, that the USA or European weather doesn't represent the global weather as a whole.

I think there is, however, a lot of evidence that the last 20 or 30 years have been a "perfect storm" of weather patterns, and that temperature increases will necessarily have to slow down or reverse for a period of time. That doesn't mean that there wasn't a contribution of CO₂. But, that it certainly isn't the whole picture.

[BethesdaWX]

And by the way, while proponents of global warming claim that all this wild weather is consistent with their models – which unknown to many are starting to forecast global cooling, though they won't tell you that yet –

I wish that he'd provide some reference for that, I'm having some serious doubt on his integrity after reading that statement.

[Mencken_Fan]

His dissertation is riddled with flawed logic. Worse yet, he asks readers to be "open minded" while he himself is intractable.

Bastardi is a fascinating character. I've long enjoyed his highly enthusiastic weather forecasts but my "logic red flags" always go up when I read his discussions on climate. That this highly religious man makes constant leaps of faith with the climate does not much surprise or impress me.

Yes there have been heat waves, cold waves, floods and droughts in the past - many related to oceanic cycles - but that in no way disproves AGW. To suggest so is disingenuous and serves only to persuade those with limited critical thinking skills.

[Ed Lizard]

I'm not sure JB is claiming weather extremes disprove AGW as much as he objects to every episode of extreme weather being used to 'prove' AGW.

http://thinkprogress.org/green/2011/04/28/175004/global-boiling-denier-tornadoes/

[The_Global_Warmer]

That was crap.

He not only is choose as hell with his "facts".

To much conjecture

[Clifford]

I'm not sure JB is claiming weather extremes disprove AGW as much as he objects to every episode of extreme weather being used to 'prove' AGW.

http://thinkprogress.org/green/2011/04/28/175004/global-boiling-denier-tornadoes/

The problem with articles like this is that they are full of implied connections, but no actual data.

The wicked tornado season this year has been caused by a cool Pacific Ocean and warm Atlantic Ocean due to natural ocean current cycles. There was nothing unprecedented about this year. And there are indications that tornadoes are not getting worse, and that any increased number of tornado detections are due to better instrumentation and detection capabilities.

[BethesdaWX]

The problem with articles like this is that they are full of implied connections, but no actual data.

The wicked tornado season this year has been caused by a cool Pacific Ocean and warm Atlantic Ocean due to natural ocean current cycles. There was nothing unprecedented about this year. And there are indications that tornadoes are not getting worse, and that any increased number of tornado detections are due to better instrumentation and detection capabilities.

Yes, JB is simply stating that "AGW" cannot be, at all, blamed for weather catastrophe, simply because we don't know if warmer temperatures had anything to do with them, tornadoes being a prime example...decreasing during the warming trend, but following the PDO farily well. Larger Landfalling Hurricanes? Guess how long it has been? And furthermore, with the possible scenario that CO2 is only partially responsible for temperature changes, we need to seriously take a step back and relax.

My biggest problem with JB's article is his quotation on "climate models", & stating that they are now "forecasting" global cooling. I'd like to see his reference for that.

[OHSnow]

The thing is we really don't know how global warming is going to affect the weather, but it definitely seems like there have been more extremes in many locations. I see studies that pretend to be able to make that determination, and usually those studies don't find a link or say it's inconclusive, and the deniers jump on those studies. Of course, the deniers don't buy into AGW anyways, so it's funny they would promote those studies, which essentially take AGW as a given. But we really don't know. Just recently there was a study saying the record-breaking 2010 Russian heat wave was mostly natural, yet today we learn "unprecedented" heat is expected in that same region again. Maybe one year can be dismissed as sa fluke, but if, and that's a big if, it happens again, would a second consecutive year be enough to find an anthropogenic origin?

http://www.aysor.am/en/news/2011/07/13/moskow-hot/

"During the upcoming 2 days in the European region of Russia, particularly in Moscow strong heat is expected, the Russian news agencies report.According to the head of the meteorological service on 15-16 the anticyclone will be blocked. 31-33 degrees of heat is expected in that case which is higher than the norm with 7-8 degrees, it will remain for 15 days.

A lot of fires occurred there last summer because of the 30 degree heat."

[tacoman25]

The thing is we really don't know how global warming is going to affect the weather, but it definitely seems like there have been more extremes in many locations. I see studies that pretend to be able to make that determination, and usually those studies don't find a link or say it's inconclusive, and the deniers jump on those studies. Of course, the deniers don't buy into AGW anyways, so it's funny they would promote those studies, which essentially take AGW as a given. But we really don't know. Just recently there was a study saying the record-breaking 2010 Russian heat wave was mostly natural, yet today we learn "unprecedented" heat is expected in that same region again. Maybe one year can be dismissed as sa fluke, but if, and that's a big if, it happens again, would a second consecutive year be enough to find an anthropogenic origin?

http://www.aysor.am/en/news/2011/07/13/moskow-hot/

"During the upcoming 2 days in the European region of Russia, particularly in Moscow strong heat is expected, the Russian news agencies report.According to the head of the meteorological service on 15-16 the anticyclone will be blocked. 31-33 degrees of heat is expected in that case which is higher than the norm with 7-8 degrees, it will remain for 15 days.

A lot of fires occurred there last summer because of the 30 degree heat."

I don't see model support for anything close to the 2010 heatwave there. Looks like highs in the low/mid 80s, which is the warmest they have seen so far this month.

[OHSnow]

I don't see model support for anything close to the 2010 heatwave there. Looks like highs in the low/mid 80s, which is the warmest they have seen so far this month.

Wunderground shows the average high so far this month in Moscow has been 82F, or about 7-8F above normal -- not quite last year's 89F but it's still early. Last year's heat didn't really peak until the end of July.

http://www.wundergro...hlyHistory.html

Edit: And that's only 2F cooler than the first 14 days of July last year. The streak of 90s didn't begin until the 15th. Every day from that point on was 89 degrees or hotter.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UUEE/2010/7/15/MonthlyHistory.html

[Clifford]

Just recently there was a study saying the record-breaking 2010 Russian heat wave was mostly natural, yet today we learn "unprecedented" heat is expected in that same region again. Maybe one year can be dismissed as sa fluke, but if, and that's a big if, it happens again, would a second consecutive year be enough to find an anthropogenic origin?

http://www.aysor.am/.../13/moskow-hot/

NO

Droughts and local weather pattern changes often come in periods of 5 to 10 years. An event (like a cold European Winter) that happens 2 years in a row is not necessarily indicative of a long-term trend, or an event caused by human activities.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is about a 60 year cycle of 30 years of warming, and 30 years of cooling.

There are several pitfalls with trying to predict the weather in a warmer climate.

Droughts, for example are often associated with warmer weather.

So, the question would be whether warmer weather causes droughts, or whether both warmer weather and droughts are symptoms of another unrelated cause such as a shift in jet streams.

If you get warmer weather without a shift in the jet streams, then you would not expect the drought.

The big question is how AGW would affect the jet streams and the gulf stream, both of which would be major factors in regional weather patterns.

BTW:

I'm ready for some "normal" temperatures.

I'm getting tired of looking at the local weather pages and seeing:

Thursday average

62°F, 4°F below normal.

[tacoman25]

Wunderground shows the average high so far this month in Moscow has been 82F, or about 7-8F above normal -- not quite last year's 89F but it's still early. Last year's heat didn't really peak until the end of July.

http://www.wundergro...hlyHistory.html

Edit: And that's only 2F cooler than the first 14 days of July last year. The streak of 90s didn't begin until the 15th. Every day from that point on was 89 degrees or hotter.

http://www.wundergro...hlyHistory.html

Only 2F cooler than last year so far? That's a significant difference. And I don't see model evidence for a streak similar to last year occurring this month.

[WeatherRusty]

JB forecasts relatively short term climate variation. He is not considering the longer term influence of an overall changing climate caused by a background forcing mechanism. The most proximate causes of climate variation are what he is looking at, as well as the most proximate causes of day to day weather. Storms, floods, droughts etc. are all "caused" by the same mechanisms they always have been.

How will the warming influence of AGW influence his thinking? I don't feel he even considers it. Is he leaving out an emerging new factor worthy of consideration?

[tacoman25]

Wunderground shows the average high so far this month in Moscow has been 82F, or about 7-8F above normal -- not quite last year's 89F but it's still early. Last year's heat didn't really peak until the end of July.

http://www.wundergro...hlyHistory.html

Edit: And that's only 2F cooler than the first 14 days of July last year. The streak of 90s didn't begin until the 15th. Every day from that point on was 89 degrees or hotter.

http://www.wundergro...hlyHistory.html

Moscow still hasn't hit 90. So far, nothing close to last year. Through the first 19 days of the month, this Moscow airport has an average high of 80, with a max temp of 87.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UUWW/2011/7/19/MonthlyHistory.html

Compare to last July, when they had an average high temp of 88, with a max of 98 (which they hit 4 times), and 12 highs above 90. Not even close.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UUWW/2010/7/19/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

[OHSnow]

Moscow still hasn't hit 90. So far, nothing close to last year. Through the first 19 days of the month, this Moscow airport has an average high of 80, with a max temp of 87.

http://www.wundergro...hlyHistory.html

Compare to last July, when they had an average high temp of 88, with a max of 98 (which they hit 4 times), and 12 highs above 90. Not even close.

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

Nonsense. It hit 90 at Sheremetyevo International Airport, the day after I posted. Wunderground reports the high was 89, but only because they round everything down for some reason. But it reached 90 on the hourly data. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UUEE/2011/7/16/DailyHistory.html

[tacoman25]

Nonsense. It hit 90 at Sheremetyevo International Airport, the day after I posted. Wunderground reports the high was 89, but only because they round everything down for some reason. But it reached 90 on the hourly data. http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html

Whether they actually hit 90 or not depends on what airport you use. Regardless, you can compare this July to last either way, and there is no comparison so far. Nothing nonsense about that.

[JBG]

I'm generally a global warming skeptic. Joe D'Aleo, more than Joe Bastardi, is my source on that.

[bobbutts]

Of course he's partially correct, but just like he accuses others of doing, he's drawn his line in the sand. This isn't remotely scientific, more like a sales pitch.