A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I have to look. But the gist of it was that the heat busted in Dobbs Ferry. His forecast high was like 96 and he called a bust because he "only" got to 94.4 Sorry Nate. Have to laugh at that. That's like calling for 16 inches of snow and 14.4 inches being a bust LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 It looks like a 102-104F contour over NYC metro. Over 100 over most of Long Island too! I want 100 all the way out to the Hamptons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Too bad in reality it's meaningless. Not really-- there is an amazing high correlation between torch summers and epic winters (over 50") of snow.... think of 1966, 1977, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2010..... it has to be 50" though and not 40" We also need to filter out strong ENSO years since they often overwhelm the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 maybe we can mix to low 70s during the afternoon, this is going to be classic excessive heat warning. Highest HI in 15 years? Meh I want a lower dew point to maximize the heating-- I dont care what the heat index is as long as the actual temperature is in the triple digits lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 If NYC hits 102, Newark will be 105-106. It's interesting how with all the extreme heat in 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 and 2010 EWR mysteriously ALWAYS seems to cap out at 105.... case in point.... in 1993, at the start of the mega heat wave NYC had a high of 98 and a EWR had a high of 105..... later on during that same stretch, NYC had a high of 102 and EWR still capped off at 105..... last summer, when NYC reached 103, EWR also stalled at 105 (we think lol)..... something always stops them from getting past 105 and I think we'll get there but stop at 105. These are my preliminary guesstimates. JFK 101-102 NYC 102-103 LGA 102-103 EWR 104-105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 JFK roasting, same temp as Newark I got to say 93 just doesn't sound that hot to me anymore. Is it just me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 It's interesting how with all the extreme heat in 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 and 2010 EWR mysteriously ALWAYS seems to cap out at 105.... case in point.... in 1993, at the start of the mega heat wave NYC had a high of 98 and a EWR had a high of 105..... later on during that same stretch, NYC had a high of 102 and EWR still capped off at 105..... last summer, when NYC reached 103, EWR also stalled at 105 (we think lol)..... something always stops them from getting past 105 and I think we'll get there but stop at 105. These are my preliminary guesstimates. JFK 101-102 NYC 102-103 LGA 102-103 EWR 104-105 Ill go with: JFK: 99 NYC: 102 LGA: 101 EWR: 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 12z gfs has it hot through Tue afternoon before a reprieve in the heat, then more heat on/around 7/29 as ridge builds in over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Ill go with: JFK: 99 NYC: 102 LGA: 101 EWR: 105 Agree except I would knock NYC to 100 and up EWR to 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Ill go with: JFK: 99 NYC: 102 LGA: 101 EWR: 105 The area is dry enought only clouds will limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Ill go with: JFK: 99 NYC: 102 LGA: 101 EWR: 105 Screw the 99 degrees JFK doesnt stop there, if they get to 99 they usually get over 100 because it means there is no sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 12z gfs has it hot through Tue afternoon before a reprieve in the heat, then more heat on/around 7/29 as ridge builds in over the east. Wow, so no break Sunday or Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The area is dry enought only clouds will limit. Well as long as there is no sea breeze I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Screw the 99 degrees JFK doesnt stop there, if they get to 99 they usually get over 100 because it means there is no sea breeze. Soundings are showing 92-94 for JFK on Friday. For NYC, LGA and Newark, they are 100-103. So there must be a sea breeze in there somewhere. I went with 99, to account for the MOS being too low lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Soundings are showing 92-94 for JFK on Friday. For NYC, LGA and Newark, they are 100-103. So there must be a sea breeze in there somewhere. I went with 99, to account for the MOS being too low lately. Yeah, but they haven't been all that accurate all summer when they forecasted a sea breeze and it came too late to have much of an effect. The temps rise so quickly here in the morning that they could easily exceed 100 before it even hits noon. That's what happened in 1993 when we had a sea breeze, but it was too late, as we were at 101 degrees by 11 AM. It's the dryness of the ground that makes the temp rise very very quickly here and this is often underdone by the models. How many of them had JFK at 93 at 1 PM today? The sea breeze usually comes in after 1 PM so I think we could easily reach or exceed 100 before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 That's really not true at all. Sunday is still very hot but Monday and Tuesday are both considerably cooler. Like 10 to 15 degrees cooler Wow, so no break Sunday or Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Yeah, but they haven't been all that accurate all summer when they forecasted a sea breeze and it came too late to have much of an effect. The temps rise so quickly here in the morning that they could easily exceed 100 before it even hits noon. That's what happened in 1993 when we had a sea breeze, but it was too late, as we were at 101 degrees by 11 AM. It's the dryness of the ground that makes the temp rise very very quickly here and this is often underdone by the models. How many of them had JFK at 93 at 1 PM today? The sea breeze usually comes in after 1 PM so I think we could easily reach or exceed 100 before then. Even with a WSW wind I think JFK will get to 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 That's really not true at all. Sunday is still very hot but Monday and Tuesday are both considerably cooler. Like 10 to 15 degrees cooler That's what I thought because I heard we're supposed to have thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Even with a WSW wind I think JFK will get to 100. I agree, and even a SW wind can get us there, we just need to avoid SSW, S or SSE lol. That's our true sea breeze, when there is more of a southerly component than a westerly one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Even with a WSW wind I think JFK will get to 100. BTW take a look at this when you have a chance.... According to MN Transplant there is a correlation between multiple 100+ temps in the summer and a cold and dry signal overall for the east coast the following winter. At this point, I'll take the cold and we can sort out the precip later We rarely get a dry winter around here anyway lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Even with a WSW wind I think JFK will get to 100. Most likely. Just usually when you have these types of extreme heat events, the sea breeze is usually very strong in the afternoon. But JFK can hit 100, before that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 BTW take a look at this when you have a chance.... http://www.americanw...445#entry819445 According to MN Transplant there is a correlation between multiple 100+ temps in the summer and a cold and dry signal overall for the east coast the following winter. At this point, I'll take the cold and we can sort out the precip later We rarely get a dry winter around here anyway lol. The ironic thing is 1995-96 isnt even in his analogs since we only hit 100 once that summer and the cold signal is there regardless of ENSO. 1966-67 isnt even in his analog list since I guess only the tristate area hit 100 multiple times that summer and he's forecasting for the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 90/73, HI of 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 87.9/76, high of 88.8F today. Just got back to Westchester from visiting a friend in Chicago, was monstrously hot out there. A bit more comfortable here, but the garden will need a lot of watering in the next few days. However, my first ears of corn are almost ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Can it be? NYC the hottest of the urban stations right now?? What's happening with this world. NYC: 92 EWR: 90 LGA: 90 JFK: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 That's really not true at all. Sunday is still very hot but Monday and Tuesday are both considerably cooler. Like 10 to 15 degrees cooler Pending on storms, Monday still looks quite hot according to the gfs. Tues does look cooler but still some widespread 90s(+). This is a change towards the ECM in delaying any real cool down to early next week. Whats also consistent is building in the ridge later next week with a return of heat by the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Just about kissing 90 here, 89.5 right now with a 74 dew point. 8th day of 90+ Had a max dew of 78 so far, ridiculously humid out there. Steambath, sauna, etc whatever you want to call it. Feels like Cancun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Can it be? NYC the hottest of the urban stations right now?? What's happening with this world. NYC: 92 EWR: 90 LGA: 90 JFK: 88 The sea breeze came in at 2 PM just like yesterday lol. The high was 93 here and JFK before that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Can it be? NYC the hottest of the urban stations right now?? What's happening with this world. NYC: 92 EWR: 90 LGA: 90 JFK: 88 Did someone mow the lawn? There are some clouds in NE-NJ looking at sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Still at 93 here so apparently no sea breeze yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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