A-L-E-X Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 And this doesnt even include 1995-96 because we only hit 100 once that year. I suspect the overall average goes down slightly with seasons that had at least one 100 degree high-- YH can you make a graph of those (or at least compute an average?) Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 And this doesnt even include 1995-96 because we only hit 100 once that year. I suspect the overall average goes down slightly with seasons that had at least one 100 degree high-- YH can you make a graph of those (or at least compute an average?) Thanks! I did a quick check and came up with a 30.6" snowfall average for 29 years... 75.6" in 1995-96 61.9" in 2010-11 55.9" in 1898-99 53.4" in 1993-94 52.0" in 1933-34 51.5" in 1966-67 50.7" in 1977-78 46.6" in 1948-49 44.7" in 1957-58 ..3.5" in 2001-02 ..3.8" in 1918-19 11.5" in 1954-55 11.6" in 1930-31 12.6" in 1991-92 13.8" in 1949-50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 My grades would be like this for winters I remember in Westchester... 10-11: A (near perfect except March sucked, did have 8" here on 2/21) 09-10: B+ (lack of arctic cold and missed brunt of 12/19 and 2/5) 03-04: B+ (February was a disappointment, finished almost 20" less snow than last year) 02-03: A- (only got 16" in PDII, March was lackluster) 95-96: A (just barely missed an A+ with Jan torch) I don't have a good recollection of 93-94, but I believe about 60" fell in Dobbs Ferry looking at records. This is substantially less than Winters 10-11 or 09-10, so I couldn't award an A+....An A might be appropriate despite the 60" and only one storm of 12", just because of the cold and ice. I do remember digging snow forts in Lake Como, PA that winter...snowpack was probably around 3 feet judging from the old photo my parents have. Yeah 09-10 had higher snowfall for me but I'd also give 10-11 a slightly better grade, due to the longer duration of snowpack (coupled with near 60" totals). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Someone should change the title of this thread, I don't see anything about 100 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Someone should change the title of this thread, I don't see anything about 100 degrees. yea you do-- we're correlating it with snowfall the following winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 You also have to look at the patterns more deeply..... it seems like there was some kind of pattern switch in the 50s..... if you start with 1957-58 the averages are much higher. Remember, the reason behind 30 year climate averages? Looks like something similar is at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Sample size = 8 winters Mean = 38.8 Median = 47.7 If you start with 1955-56 Sample Size = 9 winters Mean = 38.2 Median = 44.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 We can obtain a larger sample size if we include summers in which only one 100 degree temp occurred; that would bring in 1995-96 for sure-- not certain about 2002-03, that may have hit 100 at JFK but not NYC. Ultimately we may need to factor in a lower limit on 90/95 degree days also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 BTW, YH I looked up the 1955-56 snowfall figure and came up with 39.2 inches, don't know if that's right or not, but if it is, using the 9 year sample size beginning with 1955-56, we get a mean of 38.9 and the median remains at 44.7 If we use the conditional All winters following summers in which multiple 100 degree highs occurred OR summers in which there were 28 or more 90 degree days (28 days = 4 full weeks) since 1955, we can expand the sample size to include 1995-96, 2002-03 and 2005-06; unfortunately, that also brings in years like 1983-84 and 1988-89, but over the long haul I believe we have a well above mean snowfall signal with a larger sample size of 14 years. And then we can work on the strong ENSO years lol. http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 BTW it's interesting that this results in a snowy signal post 1955.... particularly since our snowfall averages have been going down over the last century or so. Even more so that the median is higher than the mean, especially since the median is a better predictor of future activity. If we take out all the strong ENSO conditions (both el nino and la nina) we're back down to a 9 sample space and the median ends up around 51" (small sample sizes are an issue though.) The interesting thing is we just have two below average snowfall winters in that list, 1980-81 and 1983-84, with 7 well above snowfall winters in 2005-06, 1977-78, 1966-67, 1993-94, 2002-03, 1995-96 and 2010-11. The winters removed from the list were 1955-56, 1957-58, 1988-89, 1991-92, 1999-2000 (strong el nino / la nina). It's also worth it to point out there were no consecutive pairings in this list, so we don't have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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