A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yea usually south winds kill you guys. How much water is crossed with a southwest wind? Not much, and at this time of year the water's so much warmer anyway. Yes, I think I actually measured how much of a fetch it is from Sandy Hook to here on a SW wind and it's only 8 miles lol-- and if we get that progged WSW wind on Thursday and Friday it's even less than that. Most of the time we've been progged to have a SW or WSW wind this summer, it's tended to be W or even NW, which is why JFK has been running well ahead of the forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yes, I think I actually measured how much of a fetch it is from Sandy Hook to here on a SW wind and it's only 8 miles lol-- and if we get that progged WSW wind on Thursday and Friday it's even less than that. Most of the time we've been progged to have a SW or WSW wind this summer, it's tended to be W or even NW, which is why JFK has been running well ahead of the forecasts. You think the couple hundred feet difference in elevation from the terminal moraine to the south shore adds any type of downsloping effect when on a northwest wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Winds are west right now. Not SW. 95 here in Astoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 You think the couple hundred feet difference in elevation from the terminal moraine to the south shore adds any type of downsloping effect when on a northwest wind? It's possible but probably negligible.... more likely it's the wind blowing over UHI enhanced concrete areas that border us to the west lol. Ugh, sea breeze has come in and now it's down to 88 here on a S wind. The high so far has been 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wind back to SW and temp back up to 90 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 91F and rising here in Monmouth. SWLY winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 92 right now in Brooklyn. It feels much hotter than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 000 SXUS51 KOKX 181757 OSOOKX NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 200 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK MOSUNNY 95 65 37 VRB6 29.93F HX 97 LAGUARDIA APRT PTSUNNY 95 61 32 W13 29.89F HX 95 KENNEDY INTL PTSUNNY 90 68 48 S15 29.92F HX 94 NEWARK/LIBERTY PTSUNNY 97 63 32 W16G25 29.90F HX 98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 000 SXUS51 KOKX 181757 OSOOKX NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 200 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK MOSUNNY 95 65 37 VRB6 29.93F HX 97 LAGUARDIA APRT PTSUNNY 95 61 32 W13 29.89F HX 95 KENNEDY INTL PTSUNNY 90 68 48 S15 29.92F HX 94 NEWARK/LIBERTY PTSUNNY 97 63 32 W16G25 29.90F HX 98 Temps today running well ahead of progs has major implications for later on in the week I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Temps today running well ahead of progs has major implications for later on in the week I think. The MOS has been too low the last few days, around the area. Especially the MAVs. I would go at least 2-3 degrees above the MET and MEX this week, with also more consideration 850mb temps on how dry it's been around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Temps today running well ahead of progs has major implications for later on in the week I think. I agree. I bet you want to see our area breaking the 100 degree mark. It looks like Friday will be the hottest day in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Central Park must be very dry right now, I'm stunned they're at 95. Dare I say it, they've got a shot at 100 later this week considering their high showing today. Looks like NYC's had a little over 1" of rain for the month, contrast to about 3" here. Currently "only" 91 here, seems low compared to our friends to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Newark maxed out 99 between the hours already!: http://weather.noaa....rrent/KEWR.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Newark maxed out 99 between the hours already!: http://weather.noaa....rrent/KEWR.html Wow. 104-105 is within reach for them Thurs-Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wow. 104-105 is within reach for them Thurs-Fri. Yeah, definitely. They are also one degree away from the record high of 100 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yeah 10 days since any measurable precip, ground is bone dry and radar looking quite putrid at the moment Central Park must be very dry right now, I'm stunned they're at 95. Dare I say it, they've got a shot at 100 later this week considering their high showing today. Looks like NYC's had a little over 1" of rain for the month, contrast to about 3" here. Currently "only" 91 here, seems low compared to our friends to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Newark maxed out 99 between the hours already!: http://weather.noaa....rrent/KEWR.html Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Temps today running well ahead of progs has major implications for later on in the week I think. weathergun predicted this a few days ago, props to him. 850s are 17-19 over the area, thats mid 90s easy with a west or SW wind this time of year and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I agree. I bet you want to see our area breaking the 100 degree mark. It looks like Friday will be the hottest day in our area. Yes, I want to see that at least once.... 102 just to break it by a couple of degrees. I bet noreaster wants to see it too, because he just got his new weather station and missed all the fun of last summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wow I want to see your pool side thermometer reach 113 again like it did last summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 From Tip and Company.... Typhoon Tip, on 18 July 2011 - 10:09 AM, said: 00z ECM is off the charts hot from Thur-Saturday.... in fact, +25C at 850 pass right through durng max heating on Friday. If the BL made it to 850mb level the standard adiabat would drive the thermometers to 44C at the surface. That would be the hottest day ever in SNE, period, going back to beginning of awareness that the world isn't flat. Could still be an error at D4 onwards OSUmetstud, on 18 July 2011 - 10:30 AM, said: I thought your previous post said we were mixing from 850mb to the surface...dry adiabatic lapse from 850 to 1000mb when it's that warm is 15c. +25C at 850 mb mixed to standard surface pressure would be approx. 104F Forecast MSLP from the GFS for Thurs and Friday mornings is 1006-1008 mb which may draw that back as much as 1 degree F. Normally when we are giving max temp estimates off mixing it is to Standard pressure. Side notes...mixing to 800 mb is common this time of year, and mixing to 750 mb is not unheard of. Inspection of the forecast sounding profile to these levels can be important. Another point, as has already been noted...25C at 850 mb on a Day 4/Day 5 forecast most times evolves to less warm values by the time that day rolls around. If the models maintain 25C for another couple of days then you will see the forecasts trend up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Mt.Holly Sill going with mid 90's on Saturday and low 90's Sunday and Monday for my area. THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS (AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET JOINING) ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LOWER TEMPS AND POSSIBLY LOWER DEW POINTS ON THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA ON SATURDAY AND STALL. THIS MIGHT HELP BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. IT ALSO SHOULD BRING SLIGHT RELIEF AS PER THE ECMWF AND GREATER RELIEF PER THE GFS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 500MB RIDGE, WE ARE GOING TO SIDE TOWARD THE ECMWF ON THIS. SO WHILE SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN QUOTES COOLER, ITS BECAUSE THE BAR WILL BE SET VERY HIGH ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD START BACKING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND ANY RELATIVE RELIEF WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SHOULD EB CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. ONCE AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE FRONT`S PROXIMITY WE KEPT IN SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The bar very high for Friday huh? Sounds like 100+ a good chance on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 For my area they are forecasting upper 90's for Thursday and Friday, triple digit highs certainly within reach. The bar very high for Friday huh? Sounds like 100+ a good chance on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 My forecast. 4 day heatwave. Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 96. Friday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 102. Saturday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 12z Euro also has a bubble of 24-28 C 850 temps Friday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Here is the Euro showing 100+ F temps at 18z Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Here is the Euro showing 100+ F temps at 18z Fri Just extend that 100 degree contour 5 miles farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 28C temps aren't happening,but you guys could see 24C temps at 850 I guess. Euro loves to warm the mid levels just a bit too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 28C temps aren't happening,but you guys could see 24C temps at 850 I guess. Euro loves to warm the mid levels just a bit too much. Yeah, it's just the contour that represents 24-28 C that is bubbled over our area. So I'd assume it's on the "colder" end towards 24 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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