HM Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Agree HM, I think we'll start to see more troughiness return to the NE US for the first couple weeks of August, but still some hot days interspersed. And as we close the month out toward early September, the anomalous warmth will likely return (like 2008). The pattern could potentially be highly favorable for a landfalling tropical storm/hurricane in September for the East Coast, too. It is not just the fact that most analogs have this occurring, but the projected pattern is excellent with above normal heights across Ontario and Quebec/northern New England into the NW Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 24 hour max temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 holy sh**... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 holy sh**... Euro is pretty hot as well. I have a feeling in the next few runs of the model the ridge is going to really make itself known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KAVP When MOS is predicting 96. six days out when it tries to skew the numbers to climo, you know this heat is the real deal plus the 0z euro, ensembles, euro ensembles, CMC, and GFS all concur that this big heat is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 This is going to really suck. The 23 celsius 850's and 27 celsius 925's better be overdone. There better be no blackouts. Northern Maine looks to be in the low 80's and escape this. NYC near 98 and BWI near 102. Expansive, expansive >20 celsius 850's with this. 585's with 1000-500mb thickness contour is serious business. My rule with these 1000-500 mb numbers for summer. Too much heat exhaustion, you'll hallucinate and start seeing the below images in the hyperlink: <564 - A bit too cool for summer but still very nice >564 to 570 - perfect comfortable outdoor conditions >570 to 576 - perfect very warm to hot summer outdoor conditions >576 to 582 - Typical heatwave >582 to 585 - Dangerous heat >585 to 588 - Very dangerous heat >588 Extremely dangerous heat 1000-925 thickness >136 to 140 - perfect and comfortable >140 to 144 - very warm to hot >144 - hot and dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 torch me baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 torch me baby Enjoy it pal...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 DGEX is scorching.. Friday Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Pool party next week at Earthlight's house. torch me baby You should change your name to Summerwarlock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Seeing as how EWR has been routinely hitting 90 in this past week's airmass, they'll probably hit 100+ multiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 torch me baby Enjoy it buddy. As long as period doesn't get corrupted by rain, I can't see how all stations don't torch for at least 4-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Great nasty miserable humid and hot weather, better get some svr wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Seeing as how EWR has been routinely hitting 90 in this past week's airmass, they'll probably hit 100+ multiple times. Ground is drying, TTN and others also hit or just missed 90 this week as well. Only clouds could limit the torching. Select records EWR: 7/20 101 (1980) 7/21 102 (1991) 7/22 101 (1957) 7/23 100 (1955) 7/24 99 (2010) 7/25 98 (1999) 7/26 99 (2005) LGA: 720 101 (1991) 7/21 100 (1991) 7/22 101 (1957) 7/23 100 (1955) 7/24 98 (2010) 7/25 97 (1999) 7/26 97 (2005) NYC: 7/20 101 (1980) 7/21 104 (1977) 7/22 101 (1957) 7/23 99(1955,91) 7/24 97 (2010) 7/25 97 (1999) 7/26 98 (1940) JFK: 7/20 96 (1991) 7/21 99 (1991) 7/22 98 (1998) 7/23 100 (1972) 7/24 9 (2010) 7/25 93 (1999) 7/26 94 (1982) TTN: 7/20 99 (1991) 7/21 101 (1930) 7/22 101 (1926) 7/23 99 (1991) 7/24 99 (1910) 7/25 97 (1999) 7/26 98 (1940) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Pool party next week at Earthlight's house. let's do it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 If it all works out I think Newark will try to make a run at 105. If it all works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 If it all works out I think Newark will try to make a run at 105. If it all works out. They were on their way last year (Jul 6th) and the official reading was reverted back to 103 and then the site ran cooler than it 'normally' would for about a week. Suspect we see a few 100 degree readings between the 20 and 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 What's being advertised is 24 or greater C 850 temps and west winds...which last year got Newark to 105 (I believe). The main difference would be how dry the heat was last year---not sure we can attain such intensity with higher dew points. The dry ground will definitely help. The Day 3 severe threat looks legit too---mcs on the leading edge of the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 NAM gives us 1.5" Monday night into Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 What's being advertised is 24 or greater C 850 temps and west winds...which last year got Newark to 105 (I believe). The main difference would be how dry the heat was last year---not sure we can attain such intensity with higher dew points. The dry ground will definitely help. The Day 3 severe threat looks legit too---mcs on the leading edge of the heat. What do the dewpoints look like during the forecasted heat? I know not to expect dews in the 40s like last year but if we can cap them below 60 it won't be that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 What do the dewpoints look like during the forecasted heat? I know not to expect dews in the 40s like last year but if we can cap them below 60 it won't be that bad. GFS text output shows 850s in the 22-24 degree range and dew points in the mid 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 GFS text output shows 850s in the 22-24 degree range and dew points in the mid 70s Wow, that should be 100+ for all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 If it all works out I think Newark will try to make a run at 105. If it all works out. Yes, let's get EWR to 105 and JFK to 102..... that should be our goal With the dry ground and westerly winds and with both already having seen upper 90s, this should not be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 How does the MOS predict temps because the pattern and 850's look the same but the forecasted high dropped 8 degrees from the last time run at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 .UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS... SOME MINOR MANLY MID LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS AND ENS MEANS OF 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST OF ECMWF DAYS 6 AND 7 SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE 00Z OP RUN IS TOO FAR WEST AND ERN CANADIAN/NERN CONUS HTS ARE TOO LOW AS IT OVER DEVELOPS A STRONGER TROF IN THE REGION...A TYPICAL BIAS OF THIS MODEL. WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SPREADING LOWER HTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND RAISING HTS FASTER OVER NERN CONUS IT IS NOT MUCH OUT OF LINE WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY ITS LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST. DAYS 6 AND 7 ADJUSTMENTS MADE USING A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS AND THE ENS MEANS OF GFS AND ECMWF. RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Geeze Newark's an oven, 94F high today? 7 degrees above me at 87. Surprised NYC even hit 90, the park must be really drying out lately, as their temps have been more representative recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 hottness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 MOS is WAY too low for the heat next week. If 850s verify as the GFS/ECMWF are showing, widespread 95-100F readings for at least a couple of days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 hottness What's it look like for the time period the GFS is advertising the big heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It looks like a case with SE winds with an extremely high 578 dm 1000-500 thickness for NYC and points N and E. This has the potential to be 83/76 type conditions for NYC, LI and New England coast with 83 feeling like 90-92 instead and oppresive being an understatement even if we backdoor for moments during this 4-7 day hot period. Places near NYC and points north will likely see lots of low 80's with horrible near 76 dews. Places to the south of any such boundary will see 98-104 over 68 with heat indexes near 115. Most of CNJ and points south and west will suffer the most. This will not be a 70/62 north of BD boundary deal this go around with high thickness even north. Most of the time with SE winds and thickness over 576 the dews are above 75 and significantly severe MCS clusters are a real possibility. Especially with DC hypothetically at 103/70, Philly at 100/69, NYC at 84/76 and Boston at 81/74 which look like real possible observations during this upcoming period. I really can see a strong argument for solid 2 interspersed moderate risk SVR days during the next 10 day period with 10% TOR 45% Wind hatched and 15% Hail with the upcoming pattern and jet placements. The pattern is absolutely perfect for SVR .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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