Brian5671 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 6z GFS continues to back off the heat, we got back down to 10C 850s Wednesday after a brief warm-up Mon/Tues. The longer-range looks hot, but this has been one of those summers where the "epic ridge" is always ten days away. just like in the winter when the cold and snow are always 10 days away and the weenies bite everytime...sure we'll have some heat this summer, but it's more 1-2 days then cool off...5-7 day heatwave? not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 The 12z models are coming in very warm for a 5 or more day period beginning next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Euro is warm as well...16-20 C 850 temps from Sun- Tue and then huge heat next week...24+ C 850 temps next Friday and a huge 20+ C bubble over the area through next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 1944 and 1948 were during "warm phase", or at least 1944 was. 1966 was ENSO neutral after a moderate Niño. Am I missing something? it was cold neutral I believe, similar to the kind of pattern we are supposedly going into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Euro is warm as well...16-20 C 850 temps from Sun- Tue and then huge heat next week...24+ C 850 temps next Friday and a huge 20+ C bubble over the area through next weekend. No cold front coming through next weekend then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 No cold front coming through next weekend then? It brings it through at the tail end of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 The GEFS ensembles are still sold on bringing in much higher heights even through the long range. Notice how widespread the 588+dm contour is amongst the ensemble members through the long range. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 The GEFS ensembles are still sold on bringing in much higher heights even through the long range. Notice how widespread the 588+dm contour is amongst the ensemble members through the long range. http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html The same models that aren't negative enough with the AO/NAO lately and have an inherent warm-bias in the medium-range based on their operational's performance? Still, I think above normal temperatures for the rest of the month, on a whole, looks good for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 The same models that aren't negative enough with the AO/NAO lately and have an inherent warm-bias in the medium-range based on their operational's performance? Still, I think above normal temperatures for the rest of the month, on a whole, looks good for the Northeast. Yeah..it's not like the other globals aren't indicating the same thing though. Just using it as a visual of the potential pattern progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 just like in the winter when the cold and snow are always 10 days away and the weenies bite everytime...sure we'll have some heat this summer, but it's more 1-2 days then cool off...5-7 day heatwave? not likely and you are biting on one model run despite no continuity and then of course the 12z models go back to bigtime heat thank you very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Yeah..it's not like the other globals aren't indicating the same thing though. Just using it as a visual of the potential pattern progression. Yes, it is looking damn warm in the next two weeks. After that, I am worried about some trough action; although, I still think we see these periodic shots of warmth in early August. Areas closest to Ontario/Quebec will likely see the coolest departures in early August, much like 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Yes, it is looking damn warm in the next two weeks. After that, I am worried about some trough action; although, I still think we see these periodic shots of warmth in early August. Areas closest to Ontario/Quebec will likely see the coolest departures in early August, much like 2008. Next two or three weeks look like we are gonna reach our peak heat in the northeast, if we were to follow 08'. OT but any guesses on the tropical atlantics first hurricane? im anxiously waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Yes, it is looking damn warm in the next two weeks. After that, I am worried about some trough action; although, I still think we see these periodic shots of warmth in early August. Areas closest to Ontario/Quebec will likely see the coolest departures in early August, much like 2008. HM are you forecasting another period of heat from late August thru early September? Well, we already got to 98 with the last heat burst so if the one towards the end of the month is hotter than it should make it to the triple digits, even if it only lasts a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Looks to me like the big heat is still coming and has support of all major models.. humidity will be very high too. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Looks to me like the big heat is still coming and has support of all major models.. humidity will be very high too. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html Euro's been consistent in showing extreme heat for several runs now, by late next week. I also think there is strong ensemble mean support for a general day heat wave lasting somewhere between 3-5 days, beginning either Wed or Thursday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Last nights 0z euro bought back the very hot weather after somewhat easing up at 12z. It has major heat again days 6-10. All of those days are 95-100 and higher. Major heat signal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Euro's been consistent in showing extreme heat for several runs now, by late next week. I also think there is strong ensemble mean support for a general day heat wave lasting somewhere between 3-5 days, beginning either Wed or Thursday next week. Agreed. This is not the 1-2 day heat wave that's been happening all summer. The euro is very consistent with a prolonged, 4-5 day heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 The euro is consistent, it will change again...that's what is consistent about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 So far it looks like the focus of the peak heat is beetwen 7/22 - 7/25 timefreame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z GFS is an all out torch day 6 right through the end of the run, day 15. If true, this can be a serious heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 All I have to say is: Looks like all systems go for a major heat wave for the last 1/3 of July. Similar in timing to 2008 but this one will be more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Yes, it is looking damn warm in the next two weeks. After that, I am worried about some trough action; although, I still think we see these periodic shots of warmth in early August. Areas closest to Ontario/Quebec will likely see the coolest departures in early August, much like 2008. Agree HM, I think we'll start to see more troughiness return to the NE US for the first couple weeks of August, but still some hot days interspersed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 If this heatwave happens, there will probably be a lot of blackouts around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z GFS is an all out torch day 6 right through the end of the run, day 15. If true, this can be a serious heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z euro continues the torch idea but 1 day later then GFS. Days 7-10+ on euro. Definitely a 100 degree signature on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 If this heatwave happens, there will probably be a lot of blackouts around the area. I wonder about that with an economic downturn. Less businesses running during the day so demand not as high during the day. We shall see though, especially if this forecasted heatwave comes to fruition. Sure as heck don't want a 2003 blackout repeat, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z euro continues the torch idea but 1 day later then GFS. Days 7-10+ on euro. Definitely a 100 degree signature on it. Definitely not nearly as hot as 0z though. It delays the heat to day 7 again and it looks like on day 10 and beyond, it starts to break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 i'm gonna be in Chicago most of the last week of July.. looks like it's gonna be hot as hell there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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