Weathergun Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The southeast wind component should keep most areas from getting as hot as yesterday. Newark will probably get to 93 or so...the city maybe 90-91. That would be my best guess. All bets are off tomorrow though..and you know the first day of big heat likes to overperform. I think Newark gets past 100 tomorrow with 22 C 850s advecting in by peak heating. I agree. Newark is at 84 already at 9am. But the SE wind increasing by this afternoon probably keep temps from getting as high yesterday. As for tomorrow, I definitely expect tomorrow over perform. My guess is 98 at Central Park and 101 at EWR. But that will gives us head start of temps for even higher temps on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Unless the wind starts howling we're all getting to 90. Even if we've had days of at least 90 it doesn't remind me of those past heatwaves. It doesn't feel like heatwave at all. I'm sure that'll change by Friday. Marine forecasts are calling for light winds this morning. Increasing to south winds of 10-15 knots by noon. Then this afternoon, stronger south winds of 10-15 knots, with gusts to 20 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Marine forecasts are calling for light winds this morning. Increasing to south winds of 10-15 knots by noon. Then this afternoon, stronger south winds of 10-15 knots, with gusts to 20 knots. what are the land forecasts calling for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 6z NAM backed off the 100+ for tomorrow. Still shows upper 90's though, so no difference. and with the busting lows of late, 100+ is probably a given for areas like Newark. Friday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 NAM is also 10 degrees colder on Friday for immediate south facing coastal sections. Almost surely wrong, but if its not, Alex will lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 NAM is also 10 degrees colder on Friday for immediate south facing coastal sections. Almost surely wrong, but if its not, Alex will lose it. yes, NAM has kept JFK in the mid 80s for the past few runs. Mon and Tuesday may have been my hotest days of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 where can one find record high minimum data for NJ/NY stations? I found them for southern New England, but had no luck on the Upton site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 where can one find record high minimum data for NJ/NY stations? I found them for southern New England, but had no luck on the Upton site. http://www.extremeweatherrecords.com/Records/ Maybe that will help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 12z NAM for NYC: Today: 91 Thurs: 97 Friday: 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 where can one find record high minimum data for NJ/NY stations? I found them for southern New England, but had no luck on the Upton site. I use this site: http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 12z NAM for NYC: Today: 91 Thurs: 97 Friday: 102 JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 JFK? 12z nam text soundings only show 80's for JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 SE winds already affecting JFK and south shore today. Temps down 3-4 degrees from 1 hour ago there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 12z NAM for NYC: Today: 91 Thurs: 97 Friday: 102 Sounds refreshing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 JFK? Thurs: 86-88 Fri: 91-93 But it only showed a high of 78-81 today and JFK reached 86 earlier, before being affected by the sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 there's a nice breeze here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Already hit 90 in Paramus, NJ, marking the fifth consecutive day of 90+ Temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Sounds refreshing... And certainly nothing earth shattering for this time of the year. For those hoping for epic heat (doesn't include me), if those readings verify, it'd have to be considered a disappointment (other than maybe Friday) considering all the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 And certainly nothing earth shattering for this time of the year. For those hoping for epic heat (doesn't include me), if those readings verify, it'd have to be considered a disappointment this is a joke right? I don't know what your definition of earth shattering is, but 102-104 degrees being advertised with 24 c 850 temps in NJ and NYC is pretty much as close to extreme temperature as you can get around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 And certainly nothing earth shattering for this time of the year. For those hoping for epic heat (doesn't include me), if those readings verify, it'd have to be considered a disappointment (other than maybe Friday) considering all the hype. What? Tomorrow is forecasted to be 96-100 areawide Friday is forecasted to be 99-104 areawide and Saturday in the mid 90's also And this is on top of the 4-5 days in a row of over 90, that has already occured in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 What? Tomorrow is forecasted to be 96-100 areawide Friday is forecasted to be 99-104 areawide and Saturday in the mid 90's also And this is on top of the 4-5 days in a row of over 90, that has already occured in NYC. I was commenting on what you, yourself posted for the 12z NAM this morning: 12z NAM for NYC: Today: 91 Thurs: 97 Friday: 102 Sorry that is not earth shattering if that verifies. It is not such a rare event for this area at this time of the year to have 3-5 days in the low 90's then three-four days in the mid 90's and one day barely over 100. If we saw 105 and up like we did at times last summer multiple days in a row then that would be earth shattering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 this is a joke right? I don't know what your definition of earth shattering is, but 102-104 degrees being advertised with 24 c 850 temps in NJ and NYC is pretty much as close to extreme temperature as you can get around here. Will it be happening other than one time at best 2 times during this stretch of heat? The answer is likely to be no. Multiple days in a row at that level like last summer now that is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I was commenting on what you, yourself posted for the 12z NAM this morning: 12z NAM for NYC: Today: 91 Thurs: 97 Friday: 102 Sorry that is not earth shattering if that verifies. It is not such a rare event for this area at this time of the year to have 3-5 days in the low 90's then three-four days in the mid 90's and one day barely over 100. If we saw 105 and up like we did at times last summer multiple days in a row then that would be earth shattering. Pretty sure that on average, NYC hits 100 degrees only once every 10 years. In other words, your downplaying is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Lol. Last years heat was historic. Your definition of earth shattering is ridiculous and also vague..who said this was earthshattering and why are we even including that in the convo? 90+ for several days and the possibility of two days near or over 100 with 70 degree dew points is a big deal around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I was commenting on what you, yourself posted for the 12z NAM this morning: 12z NAM for NYC: Today: 91 Thurs: 97 Friday: 102 Sorry that is not earth shattering if that verifies. It is not such a rare event for this area at this time of the year to have 3-5 days in the low 90's then three-four days in the mid 90's and one day barely over 100. If we saw 105 and up like we did at times last summer multiple days in a row then that would be earth shattering. most NYC stations are likely to have 3 days over 100, with ewr possibly hitting 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Will it be happening other than one time at best 2 times during this stretch of heat? The answer is likely to be no. Multiple days in a row at that level like last summer now that is impressive. So the only way to impress you is to have the hottest summer on record? Do you only get impressed when we get 20 inch snowstorms and up? Do you say to yourself that 15 inch storms are a dime a dozen? The all time record high is 106. Anytime you come within a few degrees of that is impressive. Btw no one was 105 and up last year unless you're referring to the desert southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Pretty sure that on average, NYC hits 100 degrees only once every 10 years. In other words, your downplaying is wrong. yes, but i wonder if several days over 90 combined with building humidity and a few days near or over 100 with 105+ degree heat indexes is significant? i will have to consult my college textbooks for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 if the nam is right newark could come within two degrees of it's all time record. no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 most NYC stations are likely to have 3 days over 100, with ewr possibly hitting 105 Newark for sure can make a run at 100 tomorrow, Friday and Saturday. I doubt NYC, LGA or JFK break it more then once or twice, but it is possible. Either way, its so rare for NYC to hit 100, that even one time, makes it a big weather day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Pretty sure that on average, NYC hits 100 degrees only once every 10 years. In other words, your downplaying is wrong. NYC hit 100 multiple times last year and I don't care what the CPK max temperature readings were on the hottest days of the summer from 2005-2007 but in each summer the hottest day was 98 so just shy of 100. I was in Central Park all three of those years on the hottest day of the summer and anyone telling me it didn't break 100 was not out in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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