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100 Degree Or Higher Heat Signal For Our Area This Week


bluewave

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I dont remember 1977 at all, but they did that winter I think, as well as in 1980, 1985 and 1994.... but not since. 1995 was the last time we got an accumulating snow in November lol.

I remember 1977 quite well. It was a one-week wonder of a heat wave during an otherwise dreary and featureless summer.

As for 1985, neither the winter before or after that summer was anything memorable, except a couple of weeks in January 1985.

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I remember 1977 quite well. It was a one-week wonder of a heat wave during an otherwise dreary and featureless summer.

As for 1985, neither the winter before or after that summer was anything memorable, except a couple of weeks in January 1985.

Oh, I was referring to negative temps in the winter.... but now that you bring that up, interesting contrasts there, somewhat reminiscent of 1993-94.

Cold and dry winters are the worst! Im glad things turned around starting in the 90s.

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Yup, thats what pos nao will do :( When it was cold it was dry, when it warmed up it rained.

That was the pattern, pretty much, from 1971-1993, except for a few breaks here and there. And fall 1996-early 2000 were generally postive NAO as well from what I remember.

But how did 1993-4 turn out so good with its positive NAO?

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That was the pattern, pretty much, from 1971-1993, except for a few breaks here and there. And fall 1996-early 2000 were generally postive NAO as well from what I remember.

But how did 1993-4 turn out so good with its positive NAO?

Arctic air bleeding south at the surface despite high heights. This is why there were so many mixed events that winter. LGA did quite a bit better than JFK and it was crappies as you went more south. There was around 60 inches here that year.

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Arctic air bleeding south at the surface despite high heights. This is why there were so many mixed events that winter. LGA did quite a bit better than JFK and it was crappies as you went more south. There was around 60 inches here that year.

Why was the "arctic air bleed" so much better that year than other non-blocky years?

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Why was the "arctic air bleed" so much better that year than other non-blocky years?

Because the PV was over Hudson Bay. We had huge highs that tapped a resource of cold air that was relatively close by. There was just enough convergence over Quebec to allow high pressure to nose in and bleed the cold south.

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The forecasted high today at KAVP was 88 and here at my house it got to 93. Seems to be warmer then what is being forecasted so far.

It definitely has something to do with the lack of precipitation recently, but more generally the airmass itself. The NAM has been increasing it's forecast highs for each of the last few days on it's 00 and 06z runs for the upcoming day---playing catch up.

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Because the PV was over Hudson Bay. We had huge highs that tapped a resource of cold air that was relatively close by. There was just enough convergence over Quebec to allow high pressure to nose in and bleed the cold south.

Accompanying the PV over Hudson Bay, which many believed was strengthened by the eruption of Pinatubo, was a huge block over the PAC that didn't allow any maritime air to reach our part of the CONUS. We had obscenely high heights over the Beaufort Sea in Winter 93-94, definitely a stereotypical -EPO pattern that creates a great degree of low-level cold. Generally, this -EPO/+NAO tends to be favorable farther north, and it's true that BOS had around 90" of snow in 93-94 compared to 13" at DCA. We also saw a similar pattern in January 2009, with an arctic airmass entrenched over Hudson Bay but little blocking to prevent SW flow events like 1/28 in which the major cities changed to rain fairly easily. Jan 2009 was a very snowy month in Middlebury with a 13" event, a 6" event, and several other moderate storms; yet it was only somewhat snowy in Dobbs Ferry, and poor for the Mid-Atlantic crowd.

December 2007 was another example of a similar pattern; even though we had lower heights in Western Canada than during the frigid 93-94 Winter, there was a semblance of blocking over the AK North Slope/Beaufort that directed arctic air into the CONUS. With the NAO not being very cooperative, we saw a couple of SW flow events that favored latitude more than anything else. I was in Poughkeepsie doing an urban education program at Vassar, and I remember one 8" storm in mid-December. However, when I returned home for XMAS break to the NYC suburbs 60 miles south, there was but a skiff of snow on the ground.

Here are the 500mb maps...

December 2007 anomalies, very +NAO look despite a fairly favorable Pacific:

post-475-0-18532300-1311130542.png

January 2009, which had a weak Greenland block that brought decent snows further south than in 07-08, but it was mostly a NNE pattern with the PV parked near Hudson Bay:

post-475-0-66892300-1311130612.png

It definitely has something to do with the lack of precipitation recently, but more generally the airmass itself. The NAM has been increasing it's forecast highs for each of the last few days on it's 00 and 06z runs for the upcoming day---playing catch up.

The dry air is really warming us up...I think we're particularly far below normal in Westchester on precipitation due to missing several thunderstorm opportunities, but everywhere is slipping into an agricultural/landscape drought. The 0.67" we've had here means we're on track for a near-record dry July. I don't think we've had a July this dry since 1999 perhaps. Lawns without a lot of irrigation are browning very quickly here in Westchester, where it's normally quite lush in summer.

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Jan 2009 was a very snowy month in Middlebury with a 13" event, a 6" event, and several other moderate storms; yet it was only somewhat snowy in Dobbs Ferry, and poor for the Mid-Atlantic crowd.

It was a decent month around here. Lots of 1-3'' nickel-and-dime events, and the snowcover stuck around for much of the month. I remember how nice it felt to actually have prolonged snowcover after how awful the past few winters had been in that regard.

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It was a decent month around here. Lots of 1-3'' nickel-and-dime events, and the snowcover stuck around for much of the month. I remember how nice it felt to actually have prolonged snowcover after how awful the past few winters had been in that regard.

Yeah Westchester maintained its snow cover pretty well despite not having the January '11/February '10 type of pattern. It started with a clipper New Year's time that left about 2"....there was another clipper with the arctic front around 1/15/09 that brought down the record cold for New England two days later. I think the biggest event for Dobbs was 5.5" on 1/28 that changed to ice and then drizzle. There was some good Norlun action a few days later on 2/3 that dropped like 4-5" here.

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Central Park up 81 at 9am. Two degrees higher than this time yesterday. Today would be day 5 of the heat wave, if they reach 90.

The southeast wind component should keep most areas from getting as hot as yesterday. Newark will probably get to 93 or so...the city maybe 90-91. That would be my best guess.

All bets are off tomorrow though..and you know the first day of big heat likes to overperform. I think Newark gets past 100 tomorrow with 22 C 850s advecting in by peak heating.

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Unless the wind starts howling we're all getting to 90.

Even if we've had days of at least 90 it doesn't remind me of those past heatwaves. It doesn't feel like heatwave at all. I'm sure that'll change by Friday.

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