JBG Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I dont remember 1977 at all, but they did that winter I think, as well as in 1980, 1985 and 1994.... but not since. 1995 was the last time we got an accumulating snow in November lol. I remember 1977 quite well. It was a one-week wonder of a heat wave during an otherwise dreary and featureless summer. As for 1985, neither the winter before or after that summer was anything memorable, except a couple of weeks in January 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Offhand I remember the heat index being over 130 in Philly that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I remember 1977 quite well. It was a one-week wonder of a heat wave during an otherwise dreary and featureless summer. As for 1985, neither the winter before or after that summer was anything memorable, except a couple of weeks in January 1985. Oh, I was referring to negative temps in the winter.... but now that you bring that up, interesting contrasts there, somewhat reminiscent of 1993-94. Cold and dry winters are the worst! Im glad things turned around starting in the 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Cold and dry winters are the worst! Im glad things turned around starting in the 90s. There was precip those winters all right; rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 There was precip those winters all right; rain. Yup, thats what pos nao will do When it was cold it was dry, when it warmed up it rained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I remember 1977 quite well. It was a one-week wonder of a heat wave during an otherwise dreary and featureless summer. As for 1985, neither the winter before or after that summer was anything memorable, except a couple of weeks in January 1985. Don't forget the blackout of 77 complete with looting in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Yup, thats what pos nao will do When it was cold it was dry, when it warmed up it rained. That was the pattern, pretty much, from 1971-1993, except for a few breaks here and there. And fall 1996-early 2000 were generally postive NAO as well from what I remember. But how did 1993-4 turn out so good with its positive NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 That was the pattern, pretty much, from 1971-1993, except for a few breaks here and there. And fall 1996-early 2000 were generally postive NAO as well from what I remember. But how did 1993-4 turn out so good with its positive NAO? Arctic air bleeding south at the surface despite high heights. This is why there were so many mixed events that winter. LGA did quite a bit better than JFK and it was crappies as you went more south. There was around 60 inches here that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Arctic air bleeding south at the surface despite high heights. This is why there were so many mixed events that winter. LGA did quite a bit better than JFK and it was crappies as you went more south. There was around 60 inches here that year. Why was the "arctic air bleed" so much better that year than other non-blocky years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The forecasted high today at KAVP was 88 and here at my house it got to 93. Seems to be warmer then what is being forecasted so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Why was the "arctic air bleed" so much better that year than other non-blocky years? Because the PV was over Hudson Bay. We had huge highs that tapped a resource of cold air that was relatively close by. There was just enough convergence over Quebec to allow high pressure to nose in and bleed the cold south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The forecasted high today at KAVP was 88 and here at my house it got to 93. Seems to be warmer then what is being forecasted so far. It definitely has something to do with the lack of precipitation recently, but more generally the airmass itself. The NAM has been increasing it's forecast highs for each of the last few days on it's 00 and 06z runs for the upcoming day---playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 high was 95.6 here, forecast was upper 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 It cooled off pretty nicely this evening. Tomorrow should be cooler than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Edit: looks a tad hotter than 18z...850 temps are warmer. Have to see higher resolution. Looks like hottest run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 NAM is about 3 hours off again...it has 25 C 850 temps at 00-03z Friday. A few hours back and that's peak heating on Thursday afternoon. Hoping it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Because the PV was over Hudson Bay. We had huge highs that tapped a resource of cold air that was relatively close by. There was just enough convergence over Quebec to allow high pressure to nose in and bleed the cold south. Accompanying the PV over Hudson Bay, which many believed was strengthened by the eruption of Pinatubo, was a huge block over the PAC that didn't allow any maritime air to reach our part of the CONUS. We had obscenely high heights over the Beaufort Sea in Winter 93-94, definitely a stereotypical -EPO pattern that creates a great degree of low-level cold. Generally, this -EPO/+NAO tends to be favorable farther north, and it's true that BOS had around 90" of snow in 93-94 compared to 13" at DCA. We also saw a similar pattern in January 2009, with an arctic airmass entrenched over Hudson Bay but little blocking to prevent SW flow events like 1/28 in which the major cities changed to rain fairly easily. Jan 2009 was a very snowy month in Middlebury with a 13" event, a 6" event, and several other moderate storms; yet it was only somewhat snowy in Dobbs Ferry, and poor for the Mid-Atlantic crowd. December 2007 was another example of a similar pattern; even though we had lower heights in Western Canada than during the frigid 93-94 Winter, there was a semblance of blocking over the AK North Slope/Beaufort that directed arctic air into the CONUS. With the NAO not being very cooperative, we saw a couple of SW flow events that favored latitude more than anything else. I was in Poughkeepsie doing an urban education program at Vassar, and I remember one 8" storm in mid-December. However, when I returned home for XMAS break to the NYC suburbs 60 miles south, there was but a skiff of snow on the ground. Here are the 500mb maps... December 2007 anomalies, very +NAO look despite a fairly favorable Pacific: January 2009, which had a weak Greenland block that brought decent snows further south than in 07-08, but it was mostly a NNE pattern with the PV parked near Hudson Bay: It definitely has something to do with the lack of precipitation recently, but more generally the airmass itself. The NAM has been increasing it's forecast highs for each of the last few days on it's 00 and 06z runs for the upcoming day---playing catch up. The dry air is really warming us up...I think we're particularly far below normal in Westchester on precipitation due to missing several thunderstorm opportunities, but everywhere is slipping into an agricultural/landscape drought. The 0.67" we've had here means we're on track for a near-record dry July. I don't think we've had a July this dry since 1999 perhaps. Lawns without a lot of irrigation are browning very quickly here in Westchester, where it's normally quite lush in summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Jan 2009 was a very snowy month in Middlebury with a 13" event, a 6" event, and several other moderate storms; yet it was only somewhat snowy in Dobbs Ferry, and poor for the Mid-Atlantic crowd. It was a decent month around here. Lots of 1-3'' nickel-and-dime events, and the snowcover stuck around for much of the month. I remember how nice it felt to actually have prolonged snowcover after how awful the past few winters had been in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 It was a decent month around here. Lots of 1-3'' nickel-and-dime events, and the snowcover stuck around for much of the month. I remember how nice it felt to actually have prolonged snowcover after how awful the past few winters had been in that regard. Yeah Westchester maintained its snow cover pretty well despite not having the January '11/February '10 type of pattern. It started with a clipper New Year's time that left about 2"....there was another clipper with the arctic front around 1/15/09 that brought down the record cold for New England two days later. I think the biggest event for Dobbs was 5.5" on 1/28 that changed to ice and then drizzle. There was some good Norlun action a few days later on 2/3 that dropped like 4-5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Upton still only forecasting 96 for me on Friday which is not very impressive considering I hit 96 two days in a row now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Today was supposed to be a nice low dew and humidity day? Lol. It's hideous out right now. 75 degrees, 70 dew point and 85% humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Today was supposed to be a nice low dew and humidity day? Lol. It's hideous out right now. 75 degrees, 70 dew point and 85% humidity. this is a week of busts for temps--although it could dry out as the sun get going.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Today was supposed to be a nice low dew and humidity day? Who in the world told you that? The wind is southeast today amidst nearly 20 C 850 temps..which has the makings of a humid and hot disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 If Central Park reaches 90 today, this will be a 8-10 day official heat wave for the station which is impressive to me. I think they have agood shot, if the SE flow remains light enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The park is working a 4 day heat wave right now which is getting very little press amid all the talk of the death heat for tomorrow and friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Central Park up 81 at 9am. Two degrees higher than this time yesterday. Today would be day 5 of the heat wave, if they reach 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Central Park up 81 at 9am. Two degrees higher than this time yesterday. Today would be day 5 of the heat wave, if they reach 90. The southeast wind component should keep most areas from getting as hot as yesterday. Newark will probably get to 93 or so...the city maybe 90-91. That would be my best guess. All bets are off tomorrow though..and you know the first day of big heat likes to overperform. I think Newark gets past 100 tomorrow with 22 C 850s advecting in by peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I'm already at 78 degrees. My forecasted high today is 88. It looks like another day where we will be hotter than the forecasted highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Unless the wind starts howling we're all getting to 90. Even if we've had days of at least 90 it doesn't remind me of those past heatwaves. It doesn't feel like heatwave at all. I'm sure that'll change by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Unless the wind starts howling we're all getting to 90. Even if we've had days of at least 90 it doesn't remind me of those past heatwaves. It doesn't feel like heatwave at all. I'm sure that'll change by Friday. feels like a classic heat wave to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.