100 Degree Or Higher Heat Signal For Our Area This Week

[A-L-E-X]

126 degree heat index in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.. chances of that kind of heat coming here

You're on Titan? You have nothing to worry about with any heat getting there

[A-L-E-X]

The NAM has 24-25 C 850 temps just 3 hours off from peak heating. If those arrive at 18-21z...the NAM MOS would print out 104-106 F temps

LOL this is July 1936 / July 1966 stuff.

What were the 850 temps on July 4, 1966 when LGA hit 107 and JFK hit 104, John?

[MJO812]

I can't imagine the heat at the end of the week. It's so hot right now.

[earthlight]

Friday dew points..bubble of 76 F

Proper mixing of 24 C 850 temps should yield 102-104 avg temp at the hottest stations.

Coupled with RH of 44.14, temp of 102 F yields a heat index of 118 F. 103 F yields a heat index of 120 F.

[A-L-E-X]

I can't imagine the heat at the end if the week. It's so hot right now.

From MN Transplant:

Another indication of the pain coming, Minneapolis set their all-time dew point record today (82). It is likely that the state record fell too (88 in Madison, MN yesterday).

[KEITH L.I]

From MN Transplant:

Another indication of the pain coming, Minneapolis set their all-time dew point record today (82). It is likely that the state record fell too (88 in Madison, MN yesterday).

that's a killer 82 dewpoint with over 100 degree temps..that's 1995 stuff..which killed over 500 in Chicago and almost killed me 2 days later

[nzucker]

that's a killer 82 dewpoint with over 100 degree temps..that's 1995 stuff..which killed over 500 in Chicago and almost killed me 2 days later

What happened to you?

[earthlight]

For those wondering the Euro is ridiculously hot as well...big 100+ contour basically stretching from DC to Boston and all the way into Eastern New Hampshire.

[earthlight]

Euro skew-t's are essentially in agreement with the NAM for Friday...with 39 C 2m temps at EWR. The main difference is the dew points which are only 18.5 C at 18z friday...which is over 10 degrees lower than the NCEP models.

[bluewave]

LOL this is July 1936 / July 1966 stuff.

What were the 850 temps on July 4, 1966 when LGA hit 107 and JFK hit 104, John?

According to the charts available around 22 C with severe drought conditions.

[A-L-E-X]

For those wondering the Euro is ridiculously snowy as well...big 20 inch contour basically stretching from DC to Boston and all the way into Eastern New Hampshire.

This is what you'll be saying this upcoming winter

[earthlight]

For what it's worth..the DGEX has now joined the GFS in delaying the thermal boundary passage until early next week. Mid to upper 90's on Saturday and Sunday..and lower 90's Monday.

[SACRUS]

For what it's worth..the DGEX has now joined the GFS in delaying the thermal boundary passage until early next week. Mid to upper 90's on Saturday and Sunday..and lower 90's Monday.

18z gfs maintains heat through monday as well with the mega ridge building in over the east by the 29th. Heat thru the 25th, then a break in the heat 26th - 28th before another surge of heat on/around the 29th.

[Isotherm]

For what it's worth..the DGEX has now joined the GFS in delaying the thermal boundary passage until early next week. Mid to upper 90's on Saturday and Sunday..and lower 90's Monday.

For many this will be 8-10 consecutive days of 90F+, pretty remarkable.

Tomorrow will be an official heat wave for me if it hits 90, 3 consecutive days.

Wow at those dews in the mid west. Anyone know what the highest dew point ever recorded was?

[Isotherm]

94 for high at NYC today.

95 for Newark.

Amazing too see EWR and NYC so close for highs. I'm glad as it would do the upcoming heat wave an injustice if central parks greenery was skewing their temps cooler.

[A-L-E-X]

Amazing too see EWR and NYC so close for highs. I'm glad as it would do the upcoming heat wave an injustice if central parks greenery was skewing their temps cooler.

Yes looks like the Park is getting inline just in time

It just does not want to rain here and I would be very suspicious of any forecasts for rain in the next 10-15 days lol.

[A-L-E-X]

For many this will be 8-10 consecutive days of 90F+, pretty remarkable.

Tomorrow will be an official heat wave for me if it hits 90, 3 consecutive days.

Wow at those dews in the mid west. Anyone know what the highest dew point ever recorded was?

Same here, we were in the mid 90s both days. I wonder if we have a chance at the 1953 record.

I was asking this earlier-- if that heatwave in 1953 had occurred in July instead of September, how hot do you think that 102 would have been?

[Isotherm]

It's interesting how with all the extreme heat in 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 and 2010 EWR mysteriously ALWAYS seems to cap out at 105.... case in point.... in 1993, at the start of the mega heat wave NYC had a high of 98 and a EWR had a high of 105..... later on during that same stretch, NYC had a high of 102 and EWR still capped off at 105..... last summer, when NYC reached 103, EWR also stalled at 105 (we think lol)..... something always stops them from getting past 105 and I think we'll get there but stop at 105.

These are my preliminary guesstimates.

JFK 101-102

NYC 102-103

LGA 102-103

EWR 104-105

I like these guesses Alex. I think Friday may be the day of 100+ for JFK with a strong WLY component to the wind; Thursday could be too SWLY for them to reach the extreme numbers.

I expect to see NYC and LGA in the low 100s, and Newark 104-105. Heat indices could approach 120 if fcsted dew points verify.

For my backyard, it takes a lot to top 100. We did it last summer in the early July heat wave, and I see us doing it again in this one. If so that'll be the first time experiencing 2 consecutive summers w/ 100F+ highs IMBY.

[A-L-E-X]

I like these guesses Alex. I think Friday may be the day of 100+ for JFK with a strong WLY component to the wind; Thursday could be too SWLY for them to reach the extreme numbers.

I expect to see NYC and LGA in the low 100s, and Newark 104-105. Heat indices could approach 120 if fcsted dew points verify.

For my backyard, it takes a lot to top 100. We did it last summer in the early July heat wave, and I see us doing it again in this one. If so that'll be the first time experiencing 2 consecutive summers w/ 100F+ highs IMBY.

Thanks, Iso! We should all take pics of our digital thermometers during peak heating on Friday. That's what I did last year, and the highest temp it recorded was 103.8 I adjusted it downward to 102.0 to account for insolation (one of my thermometers always seems to be 1.5-2.0 degrees too high during the summer and I correct it with the other one.)

[Isotherm]

Same here, we were in the mid 90s both days. I wonder if we have a chance at the 1953 record.

I was asking this earlier-- if that heatwave in 1953 had occurred in July instead of September, how hot do you think that 102 would have been?

Here's the highest dew ever recorded:

http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/2011/07/ask-tom-why-whats-the-highest-dew-point-ever-recorded.html

95F in Saudi Arabia, HI of 174! That must have literally felt like walking around in the 9th circle of hell. Can't imagine being outside in that weather.

September can get pretty hot but the sun is quite a bitl ower than july; I'd guess that 102 would've been closer to 106 or 107.

[A-L-E-X]

Here's the highest dew ever recorded:

http://blog.chicagow...r-recorded.html

95F in Saudi Arabia, HI of 174! That must have literally felt like walking around in the 9th circle of hell. Can't imagine being outside in that weather.

September can get pretty hot but the sun is quite a bitl ower than july; I'd guess that 102 would've been closer to 106 or 107.

wow, what was the actual temp? If the DP was 95 it must have been well over 100 lol.

[Isotherm]

wow, what was the actual temp? If the DP was 95 it must have been well over 100 lol.

108! Now thats a heat wave. 108/95, HI 174

[Isotherm]

Thanks, Iso! We should all take pics of our digital thermometers during peak heating on Friday. That's what I did last year, and the highest temp it recorded was 103.8 I adjusted it downward to 102.0 to account for insolation (one of my thermometers always seems to be 1.5-2.0 degrees too high during the summer and I correct it with the other one.)

Yeah breaking 100 is akin to dropping below 0. I find it amazing to see the thermometer recording negative temp values and 100+. I'd think sub zero happens a lot more than 100+ at least in my area, given the all time low is -20.

[A-L-E-X]

108! Now thats a heat wave. 108/95, HI 174

Wow, with that high a dew point, Im assuming the temps stayed in the upper 90s overnight. Hell, did they even get below 100 for a low? LOL I heard Death Valley sometimes has lows of over 100.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah breaking 100 is akin to dropping below 0. I find it amazing to see the thermometer recording negative temp values and 100+. I'd think sub zero happens a lot more than 100+ at least in my area, given the all time low is -20.

Wow, whats the lowest youve ever seen there? You get much more radiational cooling than I do, the last time it went below zero here was in 1994. No digital cameras around back then

100+ is a rare feat too-- both are usually once a decade occurrences here, this is the first time I can recall possibly seeing them in back to back years, like the back to back 50"+ snowfall seasons which have a similar likelihood.

I've grouped these together in terms of likelihood:

50" snowfall season

20" snowstorm

1 subzero low

30 90 degree days

1 100 degree day

The snowfall and the heat seems to be overperforming this decade, but the extreme cold just has not been there.

[Cfa]

Thanks, Iso! We should all take pics of our digital thermometers during peak heating on Friday. That's what I did last year, and the highest temp it recorded was 103.8 I adjusted it downward to 102.0 to account for insolation (one of my thermometers always seems to be 1.5-2.0 degrees too high during the summer and I correct it with the other one.)

I did this last week when JFK hit 98, I hit 100. Hopefully we hit 100 again so I can get a better picture (last week's one sucked).

JFK has never went below zero in my lifetime (however 1994 is iffy so maybe), so 100's are easily way more common lol.

[JBG]

It's interesting how with all the extreme heat in 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 and 2010 EWR mysteriously ALWAYS seems to cap out at 105.... case in point.... in 1993, at the start of the mega heat wave NYC had a high of 98 and a EWR had a high of 105..... later on during that same stretch, NYC had a high of 102 and EWR still capped off at 105..... last summer, when NYC reached 103, EWR also stalled at 105 (we think lol)..... something always stops them from getting past 105 and I think we'll get there but stop at 105.

I think effectively 105 is a cap for our area. Even during the droughty 1930's and 1950's-60's the ocean is still around and some heat goes to evaporating ocean. That's why Troy holds the record for NYS of 108. I think that desert areas can regularly pierce 110, not other areas.

I think the difference between 104, say, that we had in 1977 and 106 in 1936 may amount to measurement issues.

In other words, I suspect that 100-105 is effectively an area-wide cap. Could we get a spike above it? Possibly, but unlikely.

[A-L-E-X]

I think effectively 105 is a cap for our area. Even during the droughty 1930's and 1950's-60's the ocean is still around and some heat goes to evaporating ocean. That's why Troy holds the record for NYS of 108. I think that desert areas can regularly pierce 110, not other areas.

I think the difference between 104, say, that we had in 1977 and 106 in 1936 may amount to measurement issues.

In other words, I suspect that 100-105 is effectively an area-wide cap. Could we get a spike above it? Possibly, but unlikely.

I agree, but I think under exceptionally dry and droughty conditions (like July 4, 1966)-- we can get numbers like the 107 at LGA. But that's likely our summer limit. JFK was 104 that day.

What I would like to know is how and why was EWR lower than LGA that day-- that doesn't seem to make sense lol.

[A-L-E-X]

I did this last week when JFK hit 98, I hit 100. Hopefully we hit 100 again so I can get a better picture (last week's one sucked).

JFK has never went below zero in my lifetime (however 1994 is iffy so maybe), so 100's are easily way more common lol.

I dont remember 1977 at all, but they did that winter I think, as well as in 1980, 1985 and 1994.... but not since. 1995 was the last time we got an accumulating snow in November lol.

[A-L-E-X]

this is more like 90s style heat-- like what we had in 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999.... I think it will be a shock to the system for a lot of people; even though we remember last summer well, we never had heat indices like what we are going to get later this week.... I dont think we even had a 110 heat index last summer and it's progged to be around 120 up here on Friday.

Here are the Philly numbers from July 15, 1995....

http://classic.wunde...eq_statename=NA

The high was 103 and the max DP was 83.... but that occurred when the actual temp was 98. The dew point was "only" 77 when the high temp of 103 was reached, but jumped up to 82 the following hour when the temp was 102:

12:00 PM 98.1 °F 82.9 °F 62% 29.90 in 3.0 miles ESE 4.6 mph - N/A Drizzle

1:00 PM 99.0 °F 81.0 °F 56% 29.89 in 3.0 miles SSW 8.1 mph - N/A Drizzle

2:00 PM 100.9 °F 81.0 °F 53% 29.87 in 3.0 miles WSW 10.4 mph - N/A Drizzle

3:00 PM 102.9 °F 77.0 °F 44% 29.86 in 4.0 miles WSW 11.5 mph - N/A Drizzle

4:00 PM 102.0 °F 82.0 °F 53% 29.85 in 3.0 miles SW 13.8 mph - N/A Drizzle

5:00 PM 100.9 °F 82.0 °F 55% 29.84 in 3.0 miles SW 12.7 mph - N/A Drizzle

6:00 PM 100.0 °F 81.0 °F 54% 29.82 in 3.0 miles WSW 12.7 mph - N/A Drizzle