100 Degree Or Higher Heat Signal For Our Area This Week

[bluewave]

The 594 dm height contour that is forecast to build north of Chicago is a 100 degree or higher temperature signal for our area.

Since there is greater model uncertainty with time,I wanted to start with something that the the models agree on at 120 hours.

Of the 9 dates that I was able to find that occurred in July,all of them featured 100 degree or greater temperature readings at one

or more sites in our area.Most of the 100 degree readings for our area were relatively close to the dates but during July 1980

it took longer for the 100 degree temperatures to reach our area.

Here are all the dates that I used for the composite:

7/13/1954

7/21/1955

7/15/1977

7/6/1980

7/17/1991

7/14/1995

7/5/1999

7/2/2002

7/16/2006

The 500 mb composites look very similar to the current forecast.

[A-L-E-X]

Thanks as always Chris-- I see a good possibility of us getting into some historic 90s summer type territory-- especially since the ground is so dry that heating up has definitely not been a problem. Another key and something this summer is becoming known for is a downsloping west wind-- which we also need to get to 100+ like we did last year and during the 90s.

[earthlight]

Great post and the teleconnections look great.

The 12z Euro has a significant eastward progression of an extremely dominant ridge by the beginning of next week--it's actually a rather historical heat wave depiction. The ridge then establishes itself as a large upper level low drives into the west coast. The ridge looks sustained and dry, too...with a deep westerly flow advecting 24-26 C 850 temps over the Northeast by the middle of next week...Wednesday through Friday being the big days with huge heat. To see 100+ F 2m temp forecasts on the Euro at this range is mind boggling to be honest...especially given the consistency at which it has been forecast the past few cycles.

[bluewave]

Thanks as always Chris-- I see a good possibility of us getting into some historic 90s summer type territory-- especially since the ground is so dry that heating up has definitely not been a problem. Another key and something this summer is becoming known for is a downsloping west wind-- which we also need to get to 100+ like we did last year and during the 90s.

Sure,Alex.Once you see that the ridge is strong enough so the 594 dm height contour builds north of Chicago,the 100 degree readings eventually end up making it to our area later on.The potential should be next week into weekend for one station or more around NYC make it to 100 degrees or higher.It's not looking like it will take as long as 1980.

[bluewave]

Great post and the teleconnections look great.

The 12z Euro has a significant eastward progression of an extremely dominant ridge by the beginning of next week--it's actually a rather historical heat wave depiction. The ridge then establishes itself as a large upper level low drives into the west coast. The ridge looks sustained and dry, too...with a deep westerly flow advecting 24-26 C 850 temps over the Northeast by the middle of next week...Wednesday through Friday being the big days with huge heat. To see 100+ F 2m temp forecasts on the Euro at this range is mind boggling to be honest...especially given the consistency at which it has been forecast the past few cycles.

Thanks,it was impressive to see how hot the guidance started looking over the last several runs.

[Stormlover74]

Prepare for major con-ed blackouts if this comes to fruition

[A-L-E-X]

Prepare for major con-ed blackouts if this comes to fruition

July 1999-- Washington Heights-- there was a great deal of controversy regarding those black outs (or were they brown outs?)

July 1977-- who could ever forget the city wide black outs and riots that occurred back then/

Im not including August 2003 because, although the black out happened on a hot day (96 here), it was not during a heat wave, but I do believe that was on the hottest day of the year. And there was no wind at all that day or night.

[A-L-E-X]

Chris, some other analogs you may want to look at are 1933, 1936, 1944, 1948, 1953, 1966, 1983 and 1993.

[MJO812]

July 1977-- who could ever forget the city wide black outs and riots that occurred back then.

34 years ago today

[bluewave]

Chris, some other analogs you may want to look at are 1933, 1936, 1944, 1948, 1953, 1966, 1983 and 1993.

Right, Alex.Those would be good for temperatures also.I Just was looking at times when the conditions for the 96-120hr forecast heat ridge have been met in the past.

[forkyfork]

animate this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

[Joe T]

animate this

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

All i can say is WOW!

[Weathergun]

Great post Chris. I do think this is the real deal. First prolonged heat wave for most and 100 degree heat for some too. I think the signal for this type of heat is pretty strong, for this range. GFS and Euro Ens means have been showing at least 20C 850mb temps for late next week, for last two 2 or 3 runs. Which they haven't shown for us as much, with the past heat pulses.

[earthlight]

Not worth too much, but the 18z DGEX has a huge ridge building over the Eastern US towards the end of it's run..with some MCS activity along the "ring of fire" as it builds in.

[A-L-E-X]

Not worth too much, but the 18z DGEX has a huge ridge building over the Eastern US towards the end of it's run..with some MCS activity along the "ring of fire" as it builds in.

John, does this ring of fire extend over us or does it go to our north and west?

[ag3]

Great posts.

This also looks like the 1st period of sustained heat. 5-7 days worth of extreme heat.

Even though euro has shown super heat many times in this range and been wrong, I believe this time it's correct.

Bluewave illustrated beautifully why.

Just to add, all models are picking up on this. Even the JMA. Ukie also shows major heat.

[ag3]

Still have to watch it though. A tropical storm or any big storm can completely change the orientation of ridge.

And in this range, we know how terrible models are with storms.

[A-L-E-X]

Still have to watch it though. A tropical storm or any big storm can completely change the orientation of ridge.

And in this range, we know how terrible models are with storms.

Usually recurving storms pump up the ridge even more and increase and lengthen the heat a la 1995 and 2010

Storms that will affect us we actually dont have to worry about until the middle of August (usually.)

[Guest Pamela]

Usually recurving storms pump up the ridge even more and increase and lengthen the heat a la 1995 and 2010

Storms that will affect us we actually dont have to worry about until the middle of August (usually.)

I'm predicting zero 90 degree days in November at the local stations, except for six at Newark....

[TheTrials]

I'm predicting zero 90 degree days in November at the local stations, except for six at Newark....

ohhhhh your gonna get yelled at by the heat patrol

[ag3]

Usually recurving storms pump up the ridge even more and increase and lengthen the heat a la 1995 and 2010

Storms that will affect us we actually dont have to worry about until the middle of August (usually.)

Not specifically talking about a recurving tropical storm.

Was mostly talking about actual powerful lows over the US.

What if a cutoff develops and stays over our area for this time frame?

I believe we will get major sustained heat but it needs to be watched because in this range, weather is a crap shoot.

[JBG]

Chris, some other analogs you may want to look at are 1933, 1936, 1944, 1948, 1953, 1966, 1983 and 1993.

I'm a lot bigger on 1952-55 as analogs than any other years; combination of ENSO and cold-phase conditions.

[A-L-E-X]

I'm a lot bigger on 1952-55 as analogs than any other years; combination of ENSO and cold-phase conditions.

One of those years we had a big late season heatwave and it hit 102 in early September. They were also big years for intense east coast hurricane landfalls. Which usually come in mid September or later once the big heat is out of the way I would ask you to look at 1944 and 1948 also, as they are close to the time period in question. What about 1966? I believe that had similar ENSO and cold phase?

[nzucker]

12z ECM and 18z GFS backed off the heat some, delaying it into the long-range. Troughing to our northeast holds tough.

[CooL]

12z ECM and 18z GFS backed off the heat some, delaying it into the long-range. Troughing to our northeast holds tough.

yeah, post day 7 is a big heat wave. It'll make it here eventually

[A-L-E-X]

1980 and 1995 may actually be the better analogs for the "delayed but not denied" crew lol.

[jm1220]

12z ECM and 18z GFS backed off the heat some, delaying it into the long-range. Troughing to our northeast holds tough.

That trough to the NE is what we have to watch most of all, methinks. It's been persistent for months and can either cut any heat we get real quick, or keep it over the Midwest. I think we get into it eventually, but it could be another quick 2 day spell like this bout, for the same reason it's being cut off and confined SW today. Hopefully (for the heatmongers) this feature weakens on future runs, because it's hard for me to think there's a sustained heat wave this summer as long as that feature remains over Quebec/Newfoundland and S/W's keep rotating through the flow.

[A-L-E-X]

That trough to the NE is what we have to watch most of all, methinks. It's been persistent for months and can either cut any heat we get real quick, or keep it over the Midwest. I think we get into it eventually, but it could be another quick 2 day spell like this bout, for the same reason it's being cut off and confined SW today. Hopefully (for the heatmongers) this feature weakens on future runs, because it's hard for me to think there's a sustained heat wave this summer as long as that feature remains over Quebec/Newfoundland and S/W's keep rotating through the flow.

That's a feature we want to see in the winter more than now though-- is there any research into if there is a correlation or inverse correlation between having that feature there now and what happens in the winter? Will said something about a 192 day cycle and if that is the case one would expect an inverse correlation.

[JBG]

I would ask you to look at 1944 and 1948 also, as they are close to the time period in question. What about 1966? I believe that had similar ENSO and cold phase?

1944 and 1948 were during "warm phase", or at least 1944 was. 1966 was ENSO neutral after a moderate Niño.

Am I missing something?

[nzucker]

6z GFS continues to back off the heat, we got back down to 10C 850s Wednesday after a brief warm-up Mon/Tues. The longer-range looks hot, but this has been one of those summers where the "epic ridge" is always ten days away.