BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Tonights storms up north reminded me of the storms that roll through Northern WI when on vacation when I was a kid during these times of ring of fire and such.. Just non-stop lightning and thunder. not fun in a little log cabin surrounded by big tall trees. Hr of terror and they were gone with frogs then keeping you awake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Here is my (inaugural) blog post on the LaMoure County supercell and significant tornado event. http://tornadicapocalypse.blogspot.com/2011/07/review-of-july-17th-2011-lamoure-county.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 ONE OTHER ITEM...WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR WEST WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A WARY EYE ON TRENDS AND MOVEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR N. WE ARE COMING UP ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE 7/19 MCS THAT DROPPED SSW FROM CENTRAL IL AND CAUSED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE IN THE STL AREA. WHILE THE PATTERN ISN`T EXACTLY THE SAME...THERE IS ENOUGH SIMILARITY THAT EACH COMPLEX WILL BEAR WATCHING. THERE ARE SOME EXTREMELY SUBTLE SIGNALS THAT CONVECTION ON THE E PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD BE A PROBLEM TOMORROW OR TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY BUT WILL BRIEF ONCOMING SHIFT OF THIS THREAT. TRUETT && I spotted this a 5 days ago when the models started the massive ridge a bit west of us by the look of winds from 850mb to 500mb they would take a cluster from Minnesota and with a cold pool during an early evening scenario where temps are near 100F everywhere. It would be pretty rare to have it cover a long distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The 0z GFS generates convection in S. Wisconsin and far N. Illinois during the 18z-0z period. If there is not much convective debris tomorrow morning and given the parameters, could still be quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Very nice analysis tony. Forbodingly, these types of parameters (perhaps not on this magnitude, but still significant) could come together again mutiple times in the next week or two, across a wider area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 COC your head 90° and you can see why storms in the Chicago metro tomorrow evening might pose a problem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 little line fired just a pube east of suckville around Port Washington... $ man just missed to the north... Me and Tosa have a open FG post headed our way.. Nice. Far SE WI is the **** hole for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Mega-warning issued for like a third of the APX CWA in MI for 70mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 little line fired just a pube east of suckville around Port Washington... $ man just missed to the north... Me and Tosa have a open FG post headed our way.. Nice. Far SE WI is the **** hole for severe. It's been a quiet year down here, that's for sure. I guess many could say we were due, after relatively active seasons in '08 and '10, in particular. Tomorrow evening is probably our better chance, anyway. Those could get real ugly if discrete or semi-discrete cells fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The 0z GFS generates convection in S. Wisconsin and far N. Illinois during the 18z-0z period. If there is not much convective debris tomorrow morning and given the parameters, could still be quite interesting. I really thought coming up now was going to treat us right for at least some rain.. now we have to move on and hope. The agony of defeat sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 little line fired just a pube east of suckville around Port Washington... $ man just missed to the north... Me and Tosa have a open FG post headed our way.. Nice. Far SE WI is the **** hole for severe. inb4 historic derecho/tornado outbreak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It's been a quiet year down here, that's for sure. I guess many could say we were due, after relatively active seasons in '08 and '10, in particular. Tomorrow evening is probably our better chance, anyway. Those could get real ugly if discrete or semi-discrete cells fire. Dam, so I have to wait until tomorrow night now and I wont be home anyways. We actually do pretty good with severe chances especially just to our west.. It just seems storms go through their cycle right before entering MKE CTY a lot of the time or we're dealing with a lake that fooks things up or drier air.. Could be worse and lived in SE MI in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 inb4 historic derecho/tornado outbreak... Right I'm 37 yrs due to witness one in far se wi. No better time than during a heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 There's still that cluster of supercells west of Minneapolis. The LLJ is beginning to kick in now and that may quickly fire off storms from southern Wisconsin back into southeast Minnesota. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the area between the lead wave of convection and the Minnesota convection fill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 EMC WRF is scary scary for I-80 corridor tomorrow. South suburbs of Chicago into NWI have massive problems on their hands if this verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yikes It didn't initialize correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 With this first round missing to the north.. Does it give the advantage to the south of that next go around if something happens? What an embarrassing question but kinna makes sense with the little bit I follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It didn't initialize correctly. 4km WRF looks off at first, but then looks okay but about 7 hours slow...it's bizarre...gotta wonder though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Right I'm 37 yrs due to witness one in far se wi. No better time than during a heat wave. The May 31, 1998 derecho wasn't historic? I believe 100-125 mph winds were almost the rule and were pretty widespread. Unless you were on vacation for that one. Persoanlly, I don't even remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 With this first round missing to the north.. Does it give the advantage to the south of that next go around if something happens? What an embarrassing question but kinna makes sense with the little bit I follow In a general sense, yes. It will lay outflows that will tend to guide activity farther S/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 In a general sense, yes. It will lay outflows that will tend to guide activity farther S/W. Yet those same outflow boundaries will tend to stabilize the atmosphere to the SW of the MCS, won't they? That's the one thing I don't understand about OFBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This sounds potentially violent... http://www.valleynewslive.com/story/15096660/several-tornodoes-touch-down-in-se-north-dakota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The May 31, 1998 derecho wasn't historic? I believe 100-125 mph winds were almost the rule and were pretty widespread. Unless you were on vacation for that one. Persoanlly, I don't even remember it. I've never had damage to a house (tree's too) I lived in in se Wisconsin. Born in 74 and lived in Franklin WI until 1992.. Pretty sure I was living in west allis for the 98 event..weather geek was the last thing on my mind then - lost power for like 3 days but zero damage or tree's down.. I lived across from state fair then. After that moved to Pewaukee Lake In waukesha county for 7 yrs and nothing.. Living at my present location since 2006 and nothing.. lost power a few times for a few hrs. Max winds were actually from a storm this past spring at around 60 mph and close to that during the Blizzard.. Never seen hail bigger than pea size in my life. what a mess above but i'm buzzzzed. And Thanks much, Tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yet those same outflow boundaries will tend to stabilize the atmosphere to the SW of the MCS, won't they? That's the one thing I don't understand about OFBs. For the areas behind the outflow boundaries. Along and ahead of them, they act as convergence zones. They become especially useful once they've been there for a few hours, have stalled and begun to wash out. Then, they maintain their roles as convergence zones while the modified air destabilizes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Here is my (inaugural) blog post on the LaMoure County supercell and significant tornado event. http://tornadicapocalypse.blogspot.com/2011/07/review-of-july-17th-2011-lamoure-county.html Tornadic apocalypse...catchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I've never had damage to a house I lived in in se Wisconsin. Born in 74 and lived in Franklin WI until 1992.. Pretty sure I was living in west allis for the 98 event.. lost power for like 3 days but zero damage or tree's down.. I lived across from state fair then. After that moved to Pewaukee Lake In waukesha county for 7 yrs and nothing.. Living at my present location since 2006 and nothing.. lost power a few times for a few hrs. Max winds were actually from a storm this past spring. Never seen hail bigger than Pea size. I would consider myself lucky and consider it the best of both worlds if I could go through a derecho and not lose power. That is not something to use as evidence that we get no violent storms. Also, you're sending conflicting messages. You seem to want severe weather to avoid us, yet you're complaining we never get severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 4km WRF looks off at first, but then looks okay but about 7 hours slow...it's bizarre...gotta wonder though... Odd. Given that error and the fact it does not show the current MN cluster, I would probably be skeptical in putting too much stock into it. I guess we'll see how things go though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I would consider myself lucky and consider it the best of both worlds if I could go through a derecho and not lose power. That is not something to use as evidence that we get no violent storms. Also, you're sending conflicting messages. You seem to want severe weather to avoid us, yet you're complaining we never get severe. I said we were without power for three days if that was the derceho in 1998 and it has to be because that was huge news (Just no damage around us.) I remember it being pretty steamy too after.. not sure why.. so it probably wasn't and more proof that I can't stand heat in the house.. no fun. and nothing I'd wish on anybody and I didn't even have internet back then lol. Basically I like rain to keep things green and garden variety t-storms. anything more than that is of no interest to me and I get no thrills tracking severe weather hundreds of miles to my south.. unless it's epic and I'm following a thread here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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