on_wx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Interesting to note, there is a supercell about 50km NW of North Bay, ON with a hook feature evident on several scans on WBI radar drifting SE about 60km. http://www.weatherof...x_e.html?id=WBI Golf ball hail and 60 mph winds in the severe thunderstorm warning for northern Nipissing District including the city of North Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Anyone have reports out of Berlin, ND? There are several folks posting on facebook about the town's condition, but I want to hear some concrete reports before I believe those rumors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Actually looking at things a bit now, if anything thats going on currently gets to us down here, it will be the storms/complex in northern WI that will continue southeastward until it hits the instability gradient and follow that southward into southern WI/northern IL. These things in situations like this sometimes travel to the right a bit of the mean wind as well. Yeah, the question is what happens when that complex in Northern Wisconsin joins up with the area of showers and isolated thunderstorms in WC Wisconsin? Does it form one big squall line or does it begin to fall apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Potentially 87mph winds moving into the Ottawa Metro Breaking news in Ottawa, the stage at Bluesfest collapsed during the storm, multiple fire and ambulances on scene. News is calling it a surprise storm -- but the severe thunderstorm warning was in effect for at least 30 minutes before the storm http://www.ctv.ca/CT...ollapse-110717/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Gorgeous sunset right now. They say red skies at night, sailor's delight. Lets hope that holds true with respect to holding off any MCS debris/activity until late tomorrow. I want everythign to hold off until the late afternoon anyway, when I'm off work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Anyone have reports out of Berlin, ND? There are several folks posting on facebook about the town's condition, but I want to hear some concrete reports before I believe those rumors. Just spoke with Jacob Thumberger who was streaming it as it wedged near there, he stated that it was huge but he did not see anything higher than EF1 maybe EF2 damage. Mostly power poles and trees. Said it was so big he couldn't see the edges of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Anyone have reports out of Berlin, ND? There are several folks posting on facebook about the town's condition, but I want to hear some concrete reports before I believe those rumors. What are you hearing? I just know of the NWS report of significant house damage 2mi W of town which jives well with the radar from the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 this was from the 21z RUC valid for 22z...overdone ofcourse but never have I seen it forecast 14,000 j/kg of SBCAPE before (in southeast ND) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Man I'm collecting mesoscale analysis page images for a blog post later. My God what an incredible environment this cell had... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 What are you hearing? I just know of the NWS report of significant house damage 2mi W of town which jives well with the radar from the time. Couple folks on Facebook are reporting that the entire town is destroyed. I checked Google Earth and compared it with velocity data. According to that data, the tornado should have passed southwest of town where there are a few structures, but nothing compared to the density in town, so I'm not buying into the doom statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Man I'm collecting mesoscale analysis page images for a blog post later. My God what an incredible environment this cell had... I did the exact same thing as you can see from a previous post of mine...something I haven't seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Having a bad day 0550 PM LIGHTNING SOLON SPRINGS 46.35N 91.82W 07/17/2011 DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER BARNES...LIGHTNING HIT BOAT LIFT CANOPY BURNED BOAT...SHORTLY AFTER HOUSE HIT AND FIRE.. 0550 PM LIGHTNING UPPER EAU CLAIRE LAKE 46.31N 91.48W 07/17/2011 BAYFIELD MN LAW ENFORCEMENT LIGHTNING STRUCK TWO HOUSES...STARTING FIRES. ONE WAS ON LAKE ROAD...AND ONE WAS ON ROBINSON LAKE ROAD. TIME IS APPROXIMATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It looks like the developing MCS is starting to bow out almost due south (slightly east of south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It looks like the developing MCS is starting to bow out almost due south (slightly east of south). It looks like that to me, as well. SPC is expecting it to move SE across LM toward Lower Michigan, but the way it's moving right now, I'm not sure where it's going to head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 All dependent on if/what the morning convection/clouds do but the 0z NAM continues to show interesting potential around here tomorrow with 30-40kts of shear coupled with 0-3km SRH near 300 m2/s2.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Our beloved HRRR model has sure been confused all day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The bowing line segment in NE Wisconsin is really trying to drift south as the MCS tries to push more east. It will be interesting to see which feature wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 LOT 88D scanning echoes to 62kft nw of GRB also, tons lightning up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The complex in western MN could mean some real trouble if it continues to grow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Hey guys, kind of a noob-ish question here... But granted how strong and far-reaching the high pressure system is in the middle of the country, could it be dragging monsoonal moisture from the Eastern Pacific farther northeast than usual, IE into the plains and midwest, in addition to the Gulf of Mexico moisture? Could that somehow have an enhancing/energizing effect on the severity of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The bowing line segment in NE Wisconsin is really trying to drift south as the MCS tries to push more east. It will be interesting to see which feature wins out. Sound of the lawn chairs opening, sprinkler and margarita season commencing right now features win out. Congrats to the north AWT.. Not even going to bother worrying about anything to the W/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It's hard to believe the complex in East Central Wisconsin hung in there long enough that it's going to hit Oshkosh. It's certainly making its way further south than I thought. We'll probably get a near miss or near hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Man, what was that monster supercell is still going strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It's hard to believe the complex in East Central Wisconsin hung in there long enough that it's going to hit Oshkosh. It's certainly making its way further south than I thought. We'll probably get a near miss or near hit here. What are we hoping for now? I was hoping/thinking we could sneak into some of round 1 rains at least to the north but that's out for me. high of 95 should of been a red flag earlier to me that we were getting squatted on with the stuff to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 What are we hoping for now? I was hoping/thinking we could sneak into some of round 1 rains at least to the north but that's out for me. Well, since you said you wanted to stay away from the storms you better hope that small complex in WC Minnesota doesn't grow or maintain/intensify. For me, I'll probably get a short period of showers/t'storms with this first batch, and sleep while wondering what that Minnesota complex does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Well, since you said you wanted to stay away from the storms you better hope that small complex in WC Minnesota doesn't grow or maintain/intensify. For me, I'll probably get a short period of showers/t'storms with this first batch, and sleep while wondering what that Minnesota complex does. aight, thanks, I'll keep a drunken eye to the west. But give up on round 1.. we be not getting none of that unless we get some of the red headed stepchild stuff to its sw which will prob miss us south looking like $ man living on the southern end of bago gets boned even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Is that line in Wisconsin going to hold together thru the night into tomorrow? I'm on Lake Erie right now sailing and tomorrow we have a long trip to Canada and I'm a tad concerned about the stormy chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 aight, thanks, I'll keep a drunken eye to the west. But give up on round 1.. we be not getting none of that unless we get some of the red headed stepchild stuff to its sw which will prob miss us south looking like $ man living on the southern end of bago gets boned even. Yeah, I know. Right as I was postinfg the last couple of posts I started giving up on it, as it swings more easterly. Just going to have to hope for the few hundredths to tenth of an inch we might get with the weaker southern part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 That tornado that Roger Hill caught near Regan, ND yesterday was almost an exact replica of the Woonsocket, SD tornado back in 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 heckofa lightning show with that storm just to my nw...MPX has t-storm warning & urban/small stream flood advisory for parts of my county with 60+ winds & 2"+ rain with that storm...should hit here around 11:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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