wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Going by some of the hi res guidance and spc day 1, you have to feel pretty confident about an MCS traveling from southern Minnesota down towards Chicago. The NAM has been consistently less intense than the GFS for the last couple days, although it gives ORD an MCS early tomorrow morning by the looks of it. It also shows no convection forming tomorrow night, so all the parameters would likely go to waste, and we'd heat up to our fullest potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The NAM has been consistently less intense than the GFS for the last couple days, although it gives ORD an MCS early tomorrow morning by the looks of it. It also shows no convection forming tomorrow night, so all the parameters would likely go to waste, and we'd heat up to our fullest potential. I wouldn't worry about the NAM too much, in fact i wouldn't worry about it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Moderate risk coming for the Dakotas into Minnesota. We may be talking about a derecho later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I wouldn't worry about the NAM too much, in fact i wouldn't worry about it at all. I'm of the same opinion, but I've seen many times where the models have indicated some MCS action this summer within a day or two that never came to fruition. Therefore, I'm not as optimistic as you seem to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I'm of the same opinion, but I've seen many times where the models have indicated some MCS action this summer within a day or two that never came to fruition. Therefore, I'm not as optimistic as you seem to be. Good chance i get smoked and you get screw holed, so it's probably best to curtail expectations. And lol at using models to pin point MCS activity 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Good chance i get smoked and you get screw holed, so it's probably best to curtail expectations. And lol at using models to pin point MCS activity 2 days out. I expect a hell of a light show tonight off to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Good chance i get smoked and you get screw holed, so it's probably best to curtail expectations. And lol at using models to pin point MCS activity 2 days out. What else can you use? Btw, I don't think one or the other of us is more or less likely to see the action. The NAM showed the MCS hitting Chicago, but the GFS has been showing most of Wisconsin getting copious MCS action, so it's still out on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I'm of the same opinion, but I've seen many times where the models have indicated some MCS action this summer within a day or two that never came to fruition. Therefore, I'm not as optimistic as you seem to be. Chicago has made the most of their chances this yr it seems.. If Tony and Alek are honking I'm betting something goes down.. I'm just hoping for another July 11th and a inch of rain with destruction crapping out as usual in my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Good chance i get smoked and you get screw holed, so it's probably best to curtail expectations. And lol at using models to pin point MCS activity 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Chicago has made the most of their chances this yr it seems.. If Tony and Alek are honking I'm betting something goes down.. I'm just hoping for another July 11th and a inch of rain with destruction crapping out as usual in my location. Tony was big on the potential for tomorrow night, which is obviously still there if we get the favorable forcing and surface features at the heat of the day. Who knows at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Doesn't this seem eerily similar to exactly a week ago? Same potential location, same timing, MSP looks to get hit again, with the potential for MKE and ORD to get in on the action early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Tony was big on the potential for tomorrow night, which is obviously still there if we get the favorable forcing and surface features at the heat of the day. Who knows at this point? Sweet.. we're going to get smashed twice at least. I'm more worried about suckville stealing my garden rain over ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 12z GFS continues to smash Northern Wisconsin with convection. Get plenty down here, too. Differs from the NAM which gives ORD more and Northern Wisconsin less. Not that either model means anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Sweet.. we're going to get smashed twice at least. I'm more worried about suckville stealing my garden rain over ORD. Yeah, Suckville has stolen some rain in the last month or two. I don't think Cro will be too happy about missing out on a potential 90 degree day due to convection, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 12z GFS continues to smash Northern Wisconsin with convection. Get plenty down here, too. Differs from the NAM which gives ORD more and Northern Wisconsin less. Not that either model means anything yet. New NAM I think I've seen posted has been pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yeah, Suckville has stolen some rain in the last month or two. I don't think Cro will be too happy about missing out on a potential 90 degree day due to convection, though. Yeah and his banana plants would take a beating His tropical paradise is really looking amazing tho.. surprised he hasn't posted any pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Sweet.. we're going to get smashed twice at least. I'm more worried about suckville stealing my garden rain over ORD. To early to tell for sure about tomorrow, but it is looking like Cromartie gets the rain this evening. I'm betting both Milwaukee and Chicago miss the good stuff with the better dynamics heading east (to your north) and some more rounding the bend of the upper ridge and missing you to the southwest. I'm liking your chances better than Aleking's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 This could be one mean derecho considering the copious amounts of CAPE. Here's the meso disc. for that upgrade. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN ND...NW MN CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 171524Z - 171630Z GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY... AND MODEST TO STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...PROBABILITIES FOR THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE INCREASING...EITHER FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY OR NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IN THE 1630Z OUTLOOK UPDATE. ..KERR.. 07/17/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yeah and his banana plants would take a beating His tropical paradise is really looking amazing tho.. surprised he hasn't posted any pics. Have you been over to his house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 To early to tell for sure about tomorrow, but it is looking like Cromartie gets the rain this evening. I'm betting both Milwaukee and Chicago miss the good stuff with the better dynamics heading east (to your north) and some more rounding the bend of the upper ridge and missing you to the southwest. I'm liking your chances better than Aleking's though. Pretty much my worries also... Just hopping for the alek south trend a bit but then it would probably go to far south and hit that lucky bastard. To be honest tho I hope I do get missed south or any direction. I want as close to a zero percent chance of losing my power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Have you been over to his house? Nope.. He just sends pictures like it's their newborn baby.. Haven't been up there yet but i offered to trim and chainsaw his stuff down in the fall. I do have to get up there tho.. check out his motorized mountain bike so he can now keep up with the wife and kid.. lol I want one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Interesting for Monday night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Pretty much my worries also... Just hopping for the alex south trend but then it would probably go to far south and hit that lucky bastard. To be honest tho I hope I do get missed south.. I want as close to a zero percent chance of losing my power. Parents finally had power restored on Friday morning around 5:30 a.m. to make it just shy of a 96 hour outage for them (on well and septic). All in all they made out okay. My fridge/freezer certainly became more than a bit full after we were unable to get a generator hooked up to their goods. I believe there may still be some very small pockets around here without power. Pretty incredible to consider that 850k+ customers were out in northeastern IL after last Monday. Wonder if a hypothetical identical storm a week later after their repairs/new lines,poles, etc. would yield the same power losses. I think that would be a tough storm to match, but perhaps we'll find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 To early to tell for sure about tomorrow, but it is looking like Cromartie gets the rain this evening. I'm betting both Milwaukee and Chicago miss the good stuff with the better dynamics heading east (to your north) and some more rounding the bend of the upper ridge and missing you to the southwest. I'm liking your chances better than Aleking's though. Once you get far enough downstream the mid levels look favorable for a pretty hard right turn and some of the previous hi-res guidance was showing turns hard enough to miss me to the west. Never safe to be too confident with MCS paths, but I like the potential and won't be shocked to see whatever forms this evening be moving nearly due south by dawn tomorrow. Check the propogation vectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Active weather day on tap for the northern plains into northwest Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 nice tornado warned SUP in ND at this time also 415 ACUS01 KWNS 171631 SWODY1 SPC AC 171629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ERN ND AND NW MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR NRN NEW ENGLAND/NY... ..NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT A REMNANT CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION NEAR MINOT ND. THIS CLUSTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NE MT/NW ND...AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDLEVEL HIGH. AT THE SURFACE...A REMNANT BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM CENTRAL/ERN ND INTO NRN MN...WHILE A REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE IS MOVING SEWD INTO NE ND/NW MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NW ONTARIO. VERY RICH MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 75-80 F/ IS PRESENT ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE OF 5000-6000 J PER KG/ AND A WEAKENING CAP. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS IN ND...WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND 50+ KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE CLUSTER APPEARS PROBABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO BOW ECHO FORMATION WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH THE MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE CLUSTER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND THE CONVECTION BECOMES SOLIDLY ROOTED AT THE SURFACE. IF THE SCENARIO EVOLVES AS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MDT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SE INTO MORE OF MN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN NW WI FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..NRN MT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS MT IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE RICHER MOISTURE CONFINED TO E/SE MT IN A WEAK NELY UPSLOPE REGIME. ALOFT...GRADUAL WARMING AND HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER MT TODAY AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER HIGH EXPANDS...AND THERE ARE NO CLEAR EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE SPEED MAX EXITING NE MT. STILL...IF STORMS DO FORM ACROSS NE MT NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS...OR ACROSS NW MT INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Been scouring the net for and photos or video of yesterday... just saw these posted on Roger Hill's site from the storm NE of BIS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 Doesn't this seem eerily similar to exactly a week ago? Same potential location, same timing, MSP looks to get hit again, with the potential for MKE and ORD to get in on the action early tomorrow morning. I also agree--plus we're still stuck in the heat dome in downstate Illinois (as with the rest of the Midwest too) like we were early last week with little to no hope of getting in on some of the rain here. And the slight risk for tomorrow has just been pulled away from the I-74 corridor (Peoria, Bloomington, Champaign) for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Nasty mid-level meso about to pass over New Rockford in Eddy County ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.