SEMIweather Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I'd love to see those images when you get them if that's ok. Check your PM box...if anyone else wants them feel free to PM me about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Man, if the NAM parameters for Monday evening hold and we get convection in northern IL or southern WI, then there's going to be hell to pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Man, if the NAM parameters for Monday evening hold and we get convection in northern IL or southern WI, then there's going to be hell to pay. Mr. Izzi is jumping onboard "is getting some moderate northwest flow tingles about a possible severe weather event Sunday night or Monday..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Man, if the NAM parameters for Monday evening hold and we get convection in northern IL or southern WI, then there's going to be hell to pay. Yeah, I'll be honest, even as a non-met, I know enough to know that 4 to 5 K joules of cape and 40 knot bulk shear is plenty for a decent outbreak given the right timing. I feel like this potential is coming out of nowhere. I'm interested to see what SPC does for the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Mr. Izzi is jumping onboard "is getting some moderate northwest flow tingles about a possible severe weather event Sunday night or Monday..." It has odors of a couple infamous NW flow scenarios of yore...not strong odors but odors nonetheless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It has odors of a couple infamous NW flow scenarios of yore...not strong odors but odors nonetheless... which ones? there was a big one a few years ago that was almost moving due south but I forgot the date. I'll be out on the boat tomorrow up on the chain so hoping storms hold off which I think they should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 You guys are right. There's huge potential especially later Monday and Monday evening. Who knows what will be going on with leftover boundaries/cloud cover from the lingering morning convection, but looking at the overall setup is very enticing. Very impressive deep layer shear. Hello!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 which ones? there was a big one a few years ago that was almost moving due south but I forgot the date. I'll be out on the boat tomorrow up on the chain so hoping storms hold off which I think they should. Oh I'm thinking of two very specific, unforgettable ones... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yeah I think if those shear values verify this would be closer to a Moderate Risk type event than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It has odors of a couple infamous NW flow scenarios of yore...not strong odors but odors nonetheless... I was reading another (old) thread from a different weather board on NW flow. Is one of them the Plainfield, IL tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I was reading another (old) thread from a different weather board on NW flow. Is one of them the Plainfield, IL tornado? Well, with upper-70 dews, 30-45kt of bulk shear, and what will likely be, depending on clearing from anything in the morning, extreme instability (likely being lowballed on the models right now barring major insolation disruption), and not-sucky-for-July hodos, yeah, that's one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 look how much instability hangs around till 1am tuesday morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Oh I'm thinking of two very specific, unforgettable ones... Roanoke July '04? Though, I know that event featured a nice trough pushing through the Lakes, down the backside of the ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Roanoke July '04? Though, I know that event featured a nice trough pushing through the Lakes, down the backside of the ridge out west. Yeah, Roanoke was definitely a stronger trough. But you gotta worry if you have any forcing for convection with huge instability and curved hodos in place. Gotta be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 0-3 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 in northern IL/southern WI as well. 0-1 km SRH of 125-175 m2/s2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 SPC put most of the Upper Midwest in a slight risk on their new SWODY1 (basically much of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northern Iowa, and into Michigan I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN MT EWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... ..MT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS SUNDAY AS A DOMINANT UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. DESPITE THIS EVOLUTION IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...SOME SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE...DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY IN SPITE OF NONDESCRIPT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WITH NO IDENTIFIABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. STRONG HEATING AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION MOST LIKELY WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND THESE PROCESSES WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED FROM CNTRL MT...ESEWD ACROSS NRN SD INTO WI. EPISODIC BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION MAY INDUCE CONVECTION ATOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...POSSIBLY ACROSS MT/WRN ND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY COULD THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY MID DAY AS REMNANT LLJ VEERS INTO THIS PORTION OF THE SLGT RISK REGION. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR AS STRONG CAPPING WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEPER UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON WILL OPT TO INCLUDE AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT WHERE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. IF AN MCS CAN EVOLVE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THEN A COLD POOL WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...POSSIBLY AS FAR SE AS CHI METRO AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 FWIW...The 0z ARW takes the activity in N. Montana and turns in into a multi-state MCS...reaching C. Illinois/Indiana/Michigan in a weakening state tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Day 2: That's old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Whoops, my mistake, got a little antsy there i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Day 2: thats the old day 2 still.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yeah, I knew something looked strange about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Here's the new day 2: SPC AC 170554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NERN STATES WWD TO THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL UPR PATTERN EXPECTED MONDAY WITH SPRAWLING UPR HIGH COVERING MOST OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPR TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST AT BAY WITH ASSOCIATED WLYS ARCING ACROSS SRN CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND. ...NERN STATES... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MAY ALREADY BE ONGOING ALONG THE QC/ON BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY AS A LEAD MID-LEVEL WAVE GRAZES ACROSS THE REGION. DEBRIS CLOUDS/PCPN WILL BE KEY TO WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EVOLVES MONDAY AFTN. WNWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL TRANSPORT BOTH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS EWD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST HEATING AND POTENTIAL THERMAL BUOYANCY SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD TO ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER. AS AIR MASS HEATS AND EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT H25 JET APPROACHES THE REGION...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS CAP IS ERASED. ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES LEFT-OVER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT STORMS AND ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. FCST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND FAST-MOVING BOW ECHOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WNW FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WITH SOUTH EXTENT...ROUGHLY THE MASON-DIXON LINE. ...MIDWEST/UPR MS VLY REGION... CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK WILL BE PAINTED FROM OH/MI WWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY ON MONDAY AS PRECEDING DAY MCS ROBUSTNESS/PLACEMENT WILL BE IN QUESTION. 00Z GFS AND LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST THAT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A NOCTURNAL MCS OR TWO WILL EXIST EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY...POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS CHICAGOLAND. THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG SWRN FRINGE OF 45-50 KTS OF NW MID-LEVEL FLOW AND WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MORNING MCS MAY CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS HEATING PEAKS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...UNLESS AN MCV CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...HOT/MOIST LLVL ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORED WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY YIELD AT LEAST ISOLD FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD DURING THE EVENING INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND PERHAPS AS FAR NW AS ND WITH AN ISOLD SVR THREAT. ..RACY.. 07/17/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Chase/tornado vid from a friend of mine in ND today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Chase/tornado vid from a friend of mine in ND today. Very nice footage and tornado. Also, we have a 4-8 day severe threat: DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011 VALID 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... UPR HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO ELONGATE ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION FROM WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WITH DUAL CENTERS...ONE OVER THE SERN STATES AND ANOTHER SHIFTING TOWARD THE CNTRL ROCKIES. PAC UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W ON TUE /DAY 3/ WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON WED /DAY 4/. AT LEAST 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ATOP A ROBUST INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE CNTRL DAKOTAS ON WED. CAP WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AS THIS IMPULSE SKIRTS THE REGION AND ORGANIZED SVR STORMS WILL BE PSBL WED AFTN/EVE. ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN/NCNTRL MN BY EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...AS THE PRIMARY HIGH CELL SHIFTS WWD...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE NERN STATES AND COULD BRING A ROUND OF SVR WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK TO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...A LOT DEPENDS ON UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY ORGANIZED TSTM POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. LIKEWISE...LEADING EDGE OF FRESH CP AIRMASS...FOLLOWING THE IMPULSE MOVING TOWARD THE NERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WILL STALL ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND NRN PLAINS. THIS REGION COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR EPISODIC SVR WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME. ..RACY.. 07/17/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Get ready for an epic light show with the next couple night's MCS parade, complexes rounding massive heat domes always deliver the electrical goods. Feel pretty confident that there will be a complex in or around Chicago for tomorrow mornings trek to work. This really is classic mid summer stuff, although the shear numbers seem rather high as well, so things might really get funky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Get ready for an epic light show with the next couple night's MCS parade, complexes rounding massive heat domes always deliver the electrical goods. Feel pretty confident that there will be a complex in or around Chicago for tomorrow mornings trek to work. This really is classic mid summer stuff, although the shear numbers seem rather high as well, so things might really get funky. What do you mean by "funky"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Tony had me booking a hotel first thing this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 RUC has a widespread 10,000 (yes, 10,000) J/KG across Central Minnesota and SE North Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Going by some of the hi res guidance and spc day 1, you have to feel pretty confident about an MCS traveling from southern Minnesota down towards Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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