SmokeEater Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 ya, Here's hoping for a tall maple crashing through your living room. Severe enough for ya? Maybe no power for 4-5 days will add to your excitement. He asked a valid question, about possible storms coming to his area. He didn't hope for death and destruction. Don't troll the thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 not me. Love the good look of a cumuli-nimbus cloud and the sound of thunder and lightning. But anymore they scare me. I've seen the wrath......plus your from God's country. All is good. Unfortunately in order to see good development of thunderstorms you have to generally be in them, so I guess that's the risk you take. I don't like being outside during the storm, due to the lightning, but I do enjoy experiencing the conditions right before a t'storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Roger Hill has had a tornado on the ground for at least the last 12 minutes. Elephant trunk tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Storm to the east. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 733 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011 NDC039-170100- /O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-110717T0100Z/ GRIGGS ND- 733 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN GRIGGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 800 PM CDT... AT 730 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO. THE DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HANNAFORD...OR 30 MILES NORTH OF VALLEY CITY...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... COOPERSTOWN AROUND 800 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Regarding the debris ball thing, empirically I've noticed that thin hooks with noticeably lower reflectivities tend not to be associated with strong or violent tornadoes necessary for a debris ball to happen. I think Markowski did a study on this a few years ago, correlating thin, weak hooks with overall cooler RFD's... not sure exactly which study it was though. Anyway, the image posted earlier in this thread showed one such hook, which may have put a red flag on any thoughts of a debris ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 He asked a valid question, about possible storms coming to his area. He didn't hope for death and destruction. Don't troll the thread. Thanks. He does it alot. that supercell continues to truck along and producing multiple tornadoes so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I'm concerned locally (RFD/MKE/ORD/GYY area) for Monday. Extreme instability with CAPEs of 4000-5000J/kg with curved hodos, minimal capping, and a front in the region. 0-6km shear of 30kt would assist in perhaps HP supercell -> MCS evolution during the afternoon/evening hours. It's absurd to get to specific given time of year and mesoscale forcings/players, but I'd be watching that timeframe very carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I'm concerned locally (RFD/MKE/ORD/GYY area) for Monday. Extreme instability with CAPEs of 4000-5000J/kg with curved hodos, minimal capping, and a front in the region. 0-6km shear of 30kt would assist in perhaps HP supercell -> MCS evolution during the afternoon/evening hours. It's absurd to get to specific given time of year and mesoscale forcings/players, but I'd be watching that timeframe very carefully. Ya the shear is there for good storm organization with a 35-50kt northwest H5 jet coming on down coupled with 35kts of 850mb westerly flow and alot of juice to work with as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 He does it alot. that supercell continues to truck along and producing multiple tornadoes so far. I know, the problem is since I'm not a stormchaser I'm primarily concerned about MBY. If I did storm chasing missions through tornado prone regions like many on this board do, I'd be more interested in other regions. I probably am too addicted to this board and weather right now. Anyways, I don't want to bog down the thread so this will be my last post of the night on this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BENSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... SOUTHWESTERN RAMSEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT * AT 748 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTH OF MINNEWAUKAN...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE. THE TORNADO WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... FORT TOTTEN AROUND 815 PM CDT. CAMP GRAFTON AND ST MICHAEL AROUND 830 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I know, the problem is since I'm not a stormchaser I'm primarily concerned about MBY. If I did storm chasing missions through tornado prone regions like many on this board do, I'd be more interested in other regions. I probably am too addicted to this board and weather right now. Anyways, I don't want to bog down the thread so this will be my last post of the night on this thread. You did nothing wrong, don't let the troll ruin it for ya. If you read back in his posts, you can tell he does nothing but troll the board. His newest one is trashing LOT in the heat wave thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 800 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011 NDC005-071-170145- /O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-110717T0145Z/ BENSON ND-RAMSEY ND- 800 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN RAMSEY AND CENTRAL BENSON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 845 PM CDT... AT 758 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO. THE DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF MINNEWAUKAN...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH. AT 756 PM...THE TORNADO WAS OBSERVED 3 MILES SOUTH OF MINNEWAUKAN OVER LONG LAKE. AT 758 PM...SPOTTERS REPORTED THE TORNADO HAD LIFTED...BUT THE TORNADO COULD DROP BACK DOWN AT ANYTIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wow today was a winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yeah, these things are going nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0925 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN ND...NWRN MN...AND PARTS OF FAR NRN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 649... VALID 170225Z - 170400Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 649 CONTINUES. ...WW 649... SURFACE ANALYSES DURING THE EARLY EVENING SHOWED A SSW-NNE ORIENTED BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY EWD INTO NERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ND...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING SWWD TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WEST CENTRAL WI/EAST CENTRAL MN WNWWD INTO FAR NERN SD...AND THEN NWWD INTO SERN ND INTERSECTING THE SSW-NNE BOUNDARY /NE OF BIS OR WNW OF JMS/. LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG A 20-25 KT SSWLY LLJ ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT WLY MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO MIDLEVEL JET WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE AIR MASS ACROSS WW 649 AND INTO ERN SD REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 3000-4500 J PER KG/...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SSW-NNE ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...THE STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN FOR DISCRETE STORMS WHICH WILL FAVOR A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT. THUS FAR...TORNADOES HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY THREAT AS HIGH FREEZING LEVELS /AROUND 15 KFT PER BIS/ABR 00Z SOUNDINGS/ HAVE TENDED TO LIMIT HAIL SIZE. COUNTIES CAN CONTINUE TO BE REMOVED FROM WW 649 WEST OF THE SSW-NNE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY...GIVEN THIS BOUNDARY HAS REMAINED THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR STORM INITIATION AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SWD INTO WRN ND. ...NRN SD... AT 0215Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE SSW-NNE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED PER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. HOWEVER...A STRONGER CAP /PER ABR 00Z SOUNDING/ WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM AFFECTING MUCH OF SD THIS EVENING. ..PETERS.. 07/17/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Surprised already 6 tornado reports today. Actually have a mini outbreak over north Dakota now. Tornadic cells have been very persistent. Luckily their low movement means they won't cover a lot of ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Hopefully cmichweather saw something good...he did say he was going to be in the Devils Lake vicinity, where there were three tornado reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 10 tor reports now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 NWS Alpena mentioned this analog in their afternoon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 lol. Anyways, here's the only radar image I could find of the July 13, 1995 Derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 0z 4km SPC WRF has two MCS's through the end of the run across the area... One tomorrow afternoon-evening and another early Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 NWS Alpena mentioned this analog in their afternoon update. I remember the right turn derecho very well, I was on Harsens Island at the time, had a tree snap right in half as the storm came across the North Channel from the North. Probably all of 70-80 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 0z 4km SPC WRF has two MCS's through the end of the run across the area... One tomorrow afternoon-evening and another early Monday morning. Wow! First time any model's shown that this far east, although some of the models have shown the convection lingering in the Western GL until late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Edit: nvm, yesterdays 0z run also had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 NWS Alpena mentioned this analog in their afternoon update. This would be enjoyable. Supposedly there are GRLevel3 archives for KDTX back to Feb. '95 so I put in a data request for the July 13th images. Sadly the KAPX archive does not go back that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 0z 4km SPC WRF has two MCS's through the end of the run across the area... One tomorrow afternoon-evening and another early Monday morning. The 2nd one looks more impressive for here and actually showing some impressive echo tops, Would also have a hvy rain threat in southern WI/northern IL if that were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 This would be enjoyable. Supposedly there are GRLevel3 archives for KDTX back to Feb. '95 so I put in a data request for the July 13th images. Sadly the KAPX archive does not go back that far. I just noticed that too while on the IEM site. Looks like the same issue with KMQT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Keep the heat wave talk out of here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Disgusting lightning show tonight to my south and east!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 This would be enjoyable. Supposedly there are GRLevel3 archives for KDTX back to Feb. '95 so I put in a data request for the July 13th images. Sadly the KAPX archive does not go back that far. I'd love to see those images when you get them if that's ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Disgusting lightning show tonight to my south and east!! Yeah, I'll bet, the displays are showing intense lightning with that line of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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