tornadotony Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Also, it's pretty clear there is an MCV now. Looks like the bow is surging towards Oshkosh and Fond Du Lac... If that holds it's quite possible most of the action is from MKE on north. Given the theta-e gradient and location of higher values, I would highly highly doubt that. I would expect a turn/building toward the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Also, it's pretty clear there is an MCV now. Looks like the bow is surging towards Oshkosh and Fond Du Lac... If that holds it's quite possible most of the action is from MKE on north. Yeah, the relative lack of significant WAA wing, and the decaying nature on the western end of the convective band is something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Given the theta-e gradient and location of higher values, I would highly highly doubt that. I would expect a turn/building toward the south. With the faltering storms in the same area yesterday, everyone was saying they would move south or southeast throughout the duration, yet they started moving southwest. I feel like going by the radar trends more than the meteorological trends, and the radar trends show this thing starting to sweep more easterly. I appreciate the meteorological insight, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Also, it's pretty clear there is an MCV now. Looks like the bow is surging towards Oshkosh and Fond Du Lac... If that holds it's quite possible most of the action is from MKE on north. The eastern part of it is heading that way, more easterly but the strongest winds are still heading southeast looping base vel. I would expect a turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 With the faltering storms in the same area yesterday, everyone was saying they would move south or southeast throughout the duration, yet they started moving southwest. I feel like going by the radar trends more than the meteorological trends, and the radar trends show this thing starting to sweep more easterly. I appreciate the meteorological insight, though. Except that, given radar trends, it would appear to me more that the actual bow apex will be what's in Marquette and Green Lake Counties heading toward Columbia and Dodge Counties, and would suggest more of a Milwaukee/Racine/Kenosha/Waukegan down toward Gary/Michigan City threat if a straight motion were to persist, which I don't really think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Seems like the western edge, or the initiation region along the higher instability gradient has been weakening in the past half hour. Could be a sign of things dying out, or the mcv could go on all night, i'd bet against the all night mcv based on the western radar returns but who knows if the cold pool has firmly established itself and the lift along the outflow boundary will sustain it all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 High winds will maintain themselves for a little while regardless, but the maintenance of the cold pool and new storm generation seems to be struggling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Except that, given radar trends, it would appear to me more that the actual bow apex will be what's in Marquette and Green Lake Counties heading toward Columbia and Dodge Counties, and would suggest more of a Milwaukee/Racine/Kenosha/Waukegan down toward Gary/Michigan City threat if a straight motion were to persist, which I don't really think it will. You're right. When you look at the current two warned counties, Marquette and Green Lake, extrapolating the motion takes you to Milwaukee, Waukesha and Racine Counties basically. The fact that the back end is weakening though, is suggesting to me that the northeast part of the bow is trying to surge it more eastward. It will be very close here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Except that, given radar trends, it would appear to me more that the actual bow apex will be what's in Marquette and Green Lake Counties heading toward Columbia and Dodge Counties, and would suggest more of a Milwaukee/Racine/Kenosha/Waukegan down toward Gary/Michigan City threat if a straight motion were to persist, which I don't really think it will. I tend to agree with you here. Corfidi vectors are becoming more northerly with time (suggesting southward propagation). And as you said, the apex of the wind threat is heading through Green Lake into Dodge County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Outflow is well out ahead of the convection from Portage westward. Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 West Bend to Juneau down to Waukesha seem like the best bet for strong winds in the next hour or so unless the western edge can regenerate and not have the gust front cut off the best instability and surface convergence, could have the outflow weaken and regeneration along the western edge if the outflow weakens, still I think this might be its last hurrah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I think it's path will actually be slightly to the left of the cone from the storm's point of view; in other words, slightly further north and east. Ozaukee County will probably take close to a direct hit from the bow. Then again, all of these are only guesses. I could see it shifting direction a couple more times. Be the final blow to the jewels if tony's thoughts don't come true. when we need the south turn watch we wont get it now. Guess I'll grab a Mt Dew, shut up and watch this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Be the final blow to the jewels if tony's thoughts don't come true. when we need the south turn watch we wont get it now. Guess I'll grab a Mt Dew, shut up and watch this unfold. Yeah, I'm not optimistic. I don't think it can miss Mt Saukville, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Don't wanna be on bago right now.. Money man should get a decent hit and a nice soaker. Maybe saukville finally gets the banana plant shredder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Yeah, I'm not optimistic. I don't think it can miss Mt Saukville, though. Just peeking on the weather underground radar and I kinna like what I'm seeing. I think you will get some.. I just want that little train of rain to the north.. f any high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Just peeking on the weather underground radar and I kinna like what I'm seeing. I think you will get some.. I just want that little train of rain to the north.. f any high winds. You know what: you might be right. That left flank near Portage seems to be slightly regenerating. The further this continues to extend to the west, the better chance we have, as it slowly drifts south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Outflow is well out ahead of the convection from Portage westward. Not looking good. It's been like that since it's been up near Black River Falls. Convection on that end is actually looking better last couple scans. Not sure this is done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 It's been like that since it's been up near Black River Falls. Convection on that end is actually looking better last couple scans. Not sure this is done yet. Me either, it's looking slightly better near Portage. Honestly, the fact that we look to get some rain is good and all I need. TWC's radar is looking impressive as I'm watching as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 looking pretty meh imo. I can't help but be pessimistic that it doesn't weaken bad before coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 looking pretty meh imo. Do you just have to disagree with everyone just to disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 It's been like that since it's been up near Black River Falls. Convection on that end is actually looking better last couple scans. Not sure this is done yet. It does look like it's trying to regenerate that tail end convection, and the core of the strongest winds aloft are starting to push more southerly into western Dodge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 It does look like it's trying to regenerate that tail end convection, and the core of the strongest winds aloft are starting to push more southerly into western Dodge. There's a pretty deep mesovort in nrn Dodge County too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 There's a pretty deep mesovort in nrn Dodge County too. There was a little appendage associated with that for a while too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I continue to think Ozaukee County is right in line for this thing. May not be golfing tomorrow if they get heavy rain, adding humidity or more bugs to the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I personally think it'll be done in the next hour, velocities are weakening western convection has barely maintained itself and the apex has begun to weaken. But who knows, could go for a few more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Don't mean to be negative, but it sure doesn't seem like this wants to take over and dominate like some of the other convective wind events we've seen as of late. The overall trend is a negative one. The outflow is well out ahead of most of the line now, with the exception of the area west of West Bend. This is the 2nd night in a row I've been disappointed by the lack of motivation of the Wisconsin convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Nice wind signature popping up in Winnebago County now, associated with the MCV.. Wouldn't be surprised to see some good winds well behind the line too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I continue to think Ozaukee County is right in line for this thing. May not be golfing tomorrow if they get heavy rain, adding humidity or more bugs to the course. suff around fox lake, beaver dam, Mayville looking pretty good for you me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 suff around fox lake, beaver dam, Mayville looking pretty good for you me thinks. Yeah, now it's the northeastern part of the line that's breaking up, at least per TWC radar. The stuff in Dodge heading into Washington will probably make a beeline for the MKE area, who knows how strong it will be by then though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Don't mean to be negative, but it sure doesn't seem like this wants to take over and dominate like some of the other convective wind events we've seen as of late. The overall trend is a negative one. The outflow is well out ahead of most of the line now, with the exception of the area west of West Bend. This is the 2nd night in a row I've been disappointed by the lack of motivation of the Wisconsin convection. No you're right its not very healthy right now, it's generation region has been weakening and velocities have decreased, it isn't a healthy mcv right now, but with the amount of instability along its western flank who knows, it could pulse for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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