Derek30 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Very nice anvil on that NE MT storm. Looks awesome on visible satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Definitely could be a chase tonight. Best of luck! Ya things look good I need to get moving here but my chase partner is at a wedding reception Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Roger Hill just reported 2 significant tornadoes in the last 30 minutes. One elephant trunk, one cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Just glanced at the NAM 4km...it handled that boundary and initiation quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Plenty more CU/TCU trying to go up. Will be interesting to see if a more widespread threat evolves in the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Appears to be cycling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Somethings trying to go up almost right on top of the radar in Bismark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Somethings trying to go up almost right on top of the radar in Bismark. Yeah I saw that on vis too. Why aren't you out today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Yeah I saw that on vis too. Why aren't you out today? Waiting on my chase partner he's leaving Eagle's Crest as soon as dinner is over but they haven't eaten yet, I'm gonna wait another half hour, I just wanted to stay local today and I don't feel like driving that far away we'll probably head down 2 to just east of Devils Lake and see if something goes. Edit: I am getting antsy though..... I hate seeing things this close and not being out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Storm has a nice v-notch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Here it comes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 I can imagine the structure on that beast is something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Latest scan shows a possible debris ball in the hook.... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 629 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... WESTERN WELLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT * AT 627 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF GOODRICH...OR 52 MILES NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HURDSFIELD...CHASELEY AND BOWDON. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA GET TO A BASEMENT AND STAY THERE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES... SUPERCELLS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 ? lol He's in agreement with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Looks like a mini-supercell up north of McClusky... has had some weak rotation present on a couple scans now and the rotation has been present all the way up to the 3.5 tilt. Its at least pretty cool. I'm a fan of mini-sup's. Edit... of course, as I say that... the mini-sup begins falling apart or is starting to cycle and doesn't look very organized anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Latest scan shows a possible debris ball in the hook.... That's actually a Descending Reflectivity Core. Here's a study conducted by the University of North Dakota on the phenomena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Latest scan shows a possible debris ball in the hook.... there was hardly any low level rotation at that point and hasn't been for a few scans now...no debris ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Possible multi-vortex signature on the tor warned storm now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 140+ kts G2G. Let's see if it continues in the new scan, whether its real or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 I know most are focused on tonight's storms in North Dakota and Montana, but anyone else excited by the prospects of late Sunday night through Monday in the Western Great Lakes? Could be more big wind producers for someone in the MSP, MSN, MKE, ORD regions, and Skilling seems to be intrigued, as he has posted several updates in the last day on his FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Possible multi-vortex signature on the tor warned storm now? If you look at Tilt 0.9 you'll see that the extremely strong circulation indicated on Tilt 0.5 is not there, thus there is no continuity. It's the radar being screwy. Radar cannot detect the specific tornado type or shape. However, within close range of the radar sites and with the presence of a violent couplet, you can normally tell the approximate width of the tornado since the super-res upgrade a few years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 If you look at Tilt 0.9 you'll see that the extremely strong circulation indicated on Tilt 0.5 is not there, thus there is no continuity. It's the radar being screwy. There was rotation on the 1.5 tilt, albeit weaker, then stronger rotation again on 2.5 and 3.5. I know about radar limitations... I just got finished with the NWS radar course. At this distance, even with the super res, it would almost be impossible to resolve a tornado's width. Also, you are correct, a radar cannot resolve a typical type of tornado usually, but larger multi-vortex tornadoes can sometime show up differently on radar. Edit: Sorry, you said at close range... my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 APX (northern, lower MI), regarding Severe wx: STILL A FAIRLY INTERESTING SETUP FOR CONVECTION SUN NIGHT THROUGHMIDDAY MON AS ABOVE-MENTIONED COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PER SETUP...ANTICIPATE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER WAVE. GIVEN INCREASING DEEP SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS AND STRONG DCAPE PROFILES UP THAT WAY...CAN FORESEE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH THE EVENING...HELPED ALONG BY MODEST SHOT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALOFT AS 110 KT JETLET ROUNDS THE RIDGE. BIGGEST QUESTION FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IS JUST WHERE PRIMARY MCS WILL END UP. STARTING TO GET A LITTLE CONCERNED MAIN MCS MAY TRACK JUST WEST OF THE AREA (A VERY FAVORED TRACK CLIMATOLOGICALLY) BASED UPON SLOWER NORTH/EASTWARD EXPANSION OF STRONGEST CAPPING PER 12Z MODEL SUITE...SUGGESTING BEST LOW CIN/HIGH CAPE CORRIDOR MAY LIE JUST WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STILL...THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...AS IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR AND JET DYNAMICS ARGUE A SEVERE MCS/DERECHO MAY WELL GET UNDERWAY NOT TOO FAR FROM HERE. ACTUALLY INTERESTING TO GO BACK AND LOOK AT LAST SEVERE DERECHO WHICH PLOWED THROUGH HERE BACK ON JULY 13...1995...WHICH HAD A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT IS PROGGED HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 There was rotation on the 1.5 tilt, albeit weaker, then stronger rotation again on 2.5 and 3.5 Next scan it completely disappeared, and they dropped the TW accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Next scan it completely disappeared, and they dropped the TW accordingly. I understand... but at that point when I posted, the next scan had not been in yet... so I could not forsee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I understand... but at that point when I posted, the next scan had not been in yet... so I could not forsee it. I know man, just sayin, no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Latest scan shows a possible debris ball in the hook.... I hadn't really considered how alike a DRC and a Debris Call can look visually on base reflectivity until this point, but I'm glad you brought that up. DRCs are much more common then debris balls. In fact, we usually only saw one or two debris ball signatures a year during the past few seasons. Obviously this year is a big exception. Dual-Pol products such as differential reflectivity and correlation coefficient will be able to detect debris signatures that conventional reflectivity was not designed to differentiate, but there is still an easy way to tell if what you're looking at is just precipitation, such as a DRC, or debris from a tornadic circulation. This image was taken 45 minutes ago showing a classic DRC. This image (below) is from the April 27 Super Outbreak as a supercell was approaching the Birmingham Metro. This shows a classic debris ball signature along with a couplet exceeding 200 knots. This storm was close enough to the radar site that the radar was actually able to pick up debris being lofted up into the updraft. Most debris ball signatures can only be seen within 30 miles of a radar site and will have a obvious couplet with it that will extend through several radar tilts. The signature (at least on conventional reflectivity) often appears with significant tornadoes moving through a dense area (such as a forest and/or populated area). When determining if you are in fact seeing a debris ball, make sure you have a couplet in the exact location as the signature. The storm in North Dakota is located in a very rural area, so it is nearly impossible to get a debris ball in that area unless it were to impact one of the sparsely-placed towns in the area. I hope this helps you in the future! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I know most are focused on tonight's storms in North Dakota and Montana, but anyone else excited by the prospects of late Sunday night through Monday in the Western Great Lakes? Could be more big wind producers for someone in the MSP, MSN, MKE, ORD regions, and Skilling seems to be intrigued, as he has posted several updates in the last day on his FB page. ya, Here's hoping for a tall maple crashing through your living room. Severe enough for ya? Maybe no power for 4-5 days will add to your excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 ya, Here's hoping for a tall maple crashing through your living room. Severe enough for ya? Maybe no power for 4-5 days will add to your excitement. Geez, I'm just asking. Most of you are the ones who want to track big tornadoes, so being intrigued by thunderstorm development is nothing out of the ordinary. I have yet to get any good pictures of thunderstorms approaching, and that's really all I want. Beyond that, I don't need/want to be out in a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Geez, I'm just asking. Most of you are the ones who want to track big tornadoes, so being intrigued by thunderstorm development is nothing out of the ordinary. I have yet to get any good pictures of thunderstorms approaching, and that's really all I want. Beyond that, I don't need/want to be out in a storm. not me. Love the good look of a cumuli-nimbus cloud and the sound of thunder and lightning. But anymore they scare me. I've seen the wrath......plus your from God's country. All is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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