jpeters3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Yes. sorry actually, that was a ******** post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 My hunch/2cents, is if it holds together, it will bow out. Chicago area might have another derecho on its way. Judging by radar, and as tony mentioned about seeing some rapid acceleration ahead. I could be very wrong, thought I add my 2 cents. Definitely starting to "surge/bow" in two segments - one that just moved through Stevens Point, and one near Wisconsin Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Decaying lake breeze boundary... Winner winner chicken dinner. There might be a rear-inflow notch forming this thing in Wood County. Too early to tell for sure yet but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 If this is another Chicago-Milwaukee special, that will be our third or fourth one this year. Pretty rare to have 3 high wind thunderstorm events that pretty much traverse the same territory. Shouldn't forget about Madison and Rockford, as they would likely get hit as well if this thing maintains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Winner winner chicken dinner. There might be a rear-inflow notch forming this thing in Wood County. Too early to tell for sure yet but something to watch. Just noticed that. As mentioned before, there looks to possibly be a broad developing MCV moving through Portage Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Winner winner chicken dinner. There might be a rear-inflow notch forming this thing in Wood County. Too early to tell for sure yet but something to watch. Certainly has that look to it. It's also a pain that the MCS is now paralleling the radials from ARX, makes the base velocity interrogation difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Despite the storms' individual quick movement, the MCS as a whole is still barely moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Despite the storms' individual quick movement, the MCS as a whole is still barely moving. Once/if the rear inflow jet gets fully established it will likely help accelerate it as that should aid the upscale growth/forward propagation. This is a far cry from the crap we saw last night in central Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Despite the storms' individual quick movement, the MCS as a whole is still barely moving. That's pretty much not at all true. It's really booking now into Juneau, Adams, and Waushara Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Once/if the rear inflow jet gets fully established it will likely help accelerate it as that should aid the upscale growth/forward propagation. This is a far cry from the crap we saw last night in central Wisconsin. Absolutely. This thing should have staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 the sup comp only maxes to 66...and is at a 50 right now in western WI. I have an 82... I made sure to save the image... it was on the 0100 SPC mesoanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I have an 82... I made sure to save the image... it was on the 0100 SPC mesoanalysis 23z over North-Central Minnesota. First time I have seen an 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I have an 82... I made sure to save the image... it was on the 0100 SPC mesoanalysis Oh dang your right...my bad. In all my years of using mesoanalysis I've never seen an 82, sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 WAA wing taking shape in Waushara County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 WAA wing taking shape in Waushara County. What is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 That's pretty much not at all true. It's really booking now into Juneau, Adams, and Waushara Counties. It's funny. right after I posted that I started to see the acceleration. Looking to be in a likely position to see some high winds if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 What is that? Wing of convection ahead of an MCS, aligned roughly perpendicular to it, that is forced by WAA ahead of the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 figures tonight the dells gets some when I leave. Could be $man and saukvilles night. To much real state to travel until it gets here.. you know something will go amiss. Irony much? When did you leave? Right before this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Yeah the WAA wing is very subtle, but there. Just west of there west of Wautoma there appears to be an area of enhanced winds. The MKE radar is showing 75kts+ at 9000'. EDIT: typing too fast FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Irony much? When did you leave? Right before this? We left there at 5. I think half the MW is in the dells trying to stay cool.. no fun waiting in line for a hr so spent the day in the lazy rivers and wave pools just people watching and chillin...all walks of life I tell ya. I haven't been on following the thread but radar looks better than last nights at least.. Hows this line gonna move do you think? continue se or will it split and miss us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Yeah the WAA wing is very subtle, but there. Just west of there west of Wautoma there appears to be an area of enhanced winds. The MKE radar is showing 75kts+ at 9000'. EDIT: typing too fast FTL That's a nice RIJ aloft, and the potential boundary interaction with the remnant lake breeze is intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 We left there at 5. I think half the MW is in the dells trying to stay cool.. no fun waiting in line for a hr so spent the day in the lazy rivers and wave pools just people watching and chillin...all walks of life I tell ya. I haven't been on following the thread but radar looks better than last nights at least.. Hows this line gonna move do you think? continue se or will it split and miss us lol. I don't see it splitting. The most likely way it would miss is if the back end swings around so it is aligned n-s, and then swing e and miss us just to the north (or it could fall apart totally, but that's not likely). I think we have a 50% chance or so of seeing the thunderstorms along the leading edge. It's still moving relatively slow so it probably won't arrive until 2 if it does. Unfortunately, I will have to miss it b/c I'm planning on golfing in the 90+ heat tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I don't see it splitting. The most likely way it would miss is if the back end swings around so it is aligned n-s, and then swing e and miss us just to the north (or it could fall apart totally, but that's not likely). I think we have a 50% chance or so of seeing the thunderstorms along the leading edge. It's still moving relatively slow so it probably won't arrive until 2 if it does. Unfortunately, I will have to miss it b/c I'm planning on golfing in the 90+ heat tomorrow. Thanks for that post.. Man I hope you're golfing early! (Sounds like it) Freeze some water bottles up to take with ya. Carting it or walking? couldn't get me to walk it unless we were golfing with the birds chirping 1st thing in the AM. Sun kicked my tail.. dunno if I can make it awake to see what happens either.. I'm sure if i lay down my euro alarm clock will wake me up tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I came up with a little pathcast for the MCS overnight. It hinges on three ideas. A) The MCS holds together. The MCS follows the theta-e gradient. C) The MCS moves about 40kt. That last one may be a bit bullish right now, but may end up being too conservative if this thing really takes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 665 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1125 PM UNTIL 300 AM CDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MADISON WISCONSIN TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MEIGS FIELD ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 664... DISCUSSION...A MATURE BOW ECHO OVER CENTRAL WI WILL TRACK RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32040. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Nice RIJ pushing through Waushara and Marquette Counties...and soon Green Lake, Winnebago, and Fond Du Lac Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 O man that's a big weenie pointed at me. I'm scared. hopefully it gets grated apart like last night lol but I have a feeling that's not going to be the case. Thanks sooo much, Tony for your thoughts and cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I came up with a little pathcast for the MCS overnight. It hinges on three ideas. A) The MCS holds together. The MCS follows the theta-e gradient. C) The MCS moves about 40kt. That last one may be a bit bullish right now, but may end up being too conservative if this thing really takes off. Goes along nicely with the new watch box http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0665.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Nice RIJ pushing through Waushara and Marquette Counties...and soon Green Lake, Winnebago, and Fond Du Lac Counties. Also, it's pretty clear there is an MCV now. Looks like the bow is surging towards Oshkosh and Fond Du Lac... If that holds it's quite possible most of the action is from MKE on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 O man that's a big weenie pointed at me. I'm scared. hopefully it gets grated apart like last night lol but I have a feeling that's not going to be the case. Thanks sooo much, Tony for your thoughts and cone. I think it's path will actually be slightly to the left of the cone from the storm's point of view; in other words, slightly further north and east. Ozaukee County will probably take close to a direct hit from the bow. Then again, all of these are only guesses. I could see it shifting direction a couple more times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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