andyhb Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Not a shock that these storms are exploding up there in WI, huge parameters including Supercell Composite >50, Sig Tor (effective layer) >12, >6,500 SBCAPE, 0-1km shear >35kts, etc... Wow. Potentially strong tornadoes now. Didn't realize the parameters were so high (other than instability of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The complex of storms in WI continues to strengthen as it pushes southeast. I'm trying hard to not get my hopes up but if it looks good in a few hours it will be hard not to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The complex of storms in WI continues to strengthen as it pushes southeast. I'm trying hard to not get my hopes up but if it looks good in a few hours it will be hard not to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The tornadic supercells are on the se leading edge of insane helicity that extends off to the nw. 0-1km up to 650...0-3km up to 1100.. I usually think of tornadoes on the sw edge of the strongest helicity. My question is if the extreme helicity will also migrate e/se with the cells continuing to be on the leading edge as they move farther into central and southern WI. If this occurs tornadic potential should remain high rather than straight line wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The complex of storms in WI continues to strengthen as it pushes southeast. I'm trying hard to not get my hopes up but if it looks good in a few hours it will be hard not to get excited. If it congeals into a line and develops a cold pool then excitement factor goes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Is the temp and dew point difference b/w Milwaukee and Madison due to the lake breeze or warm frontal position? Lake breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 749 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011 WIC005-200130- /O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0040.000000T0000Z-110720T0130Z/ BARRON WI- 749 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN BARRON COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM CDT... AT 747 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL. THIS FUNNEL WAS LOCATED NEAR TURTLE LAKE...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF AMERY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PRAIRIE FARM AND ALMENA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The tornadic supercells are on the se leading edge of insane helicity that extends off to the nw. 0-1km up to 650...0-3km up to 1100.. I usually think of tornadoes on the sw edge of the strongest helicity. My question is if the extreme helicity will also migrate e/se with the cells continuing to be on the leading edge as they move farther into central and southern WI. If this occurs tornadic potential should remain high rather than straight line wind potential. Man, those EHI values must be off the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Pretty impressive 0-3km MLCAPE ahead of this line, maxing at 275 J/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 MKX and LSX both predicted little to no chance of convection tonight. This would be quite the surprise if it keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Intellicast radar is progging 70k tops on those twin supercells. Don't know how accurate that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 6000+ CAPE. Usually that means if the cap breaks it goes linear, otherwise nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 6000+ CAPE. Usually that means if the cap breaks it goes linear, otherwise nothing. Well it's definitely going linear now. I wonder if the storms will take more of a left turn now that it has evolved into more of a line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 LaCrosse NWS radar loop does show linear formation. I wonder if that line will swing a bit more to the sw as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Well it's definitely going linear now. I wonder if the storms will take more of a left turn now that it has evolved into more of a line. They will follow the instability gradient/convergence boundary. I don't see a left turn coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 6000+ CAPE. Usually that means if the cap breaks it goes linear, otherwise nothing. Not exactly. 6000+ CAPE and modest deep layer sheer usually = outflow dominance. If we had stronger deep layer sheer, there would be much better chances for sustained supercells. All the tornado/supercell parameters are being essentially saturated by the extreme instability and decent low level helicity, which isn't everything when it comes to supercells/tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 They will follow the instability gradient/convergence boundary. I don't see a left turn coming. Storm motions and overall flow orientation (which become increasingly southerly as this thing moves east) support southerly jog to motion as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Alberta! TORNADO WARNING ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6:54 PM MDT TUESDAY 19 JULY 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= STARLAND COUNTY NEAR MICHICHI AND DELIA =NEW= SPECIAL AREA 2 NEAR FINNEGAN AND LITTLE FISH LAKE PROV. PARK =NEW= SPECIAL AREA 2 NEAR HANNA AND RICHDALE =NEW= SPECIAL AREA 2 NEAR SUNNYNOOK =NEW= SPECIAL AREA 3 NEAR YOUNGSTOWN. ------------------------------ --------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 6:50 PM DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A ROTATING THUNDERSTORM 20 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF DRUMHELLER. THIS THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO AND IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 60 KM/H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Some of the SPC parameters are just wrong... supercell composite of 82 in MN... 9000 SBCAPE in ND... 7500 MLCAPE in ND... 3 km EHI of 16 in MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Alberta tornado warnings continued. Pretty decent looking supercell on Calgary radar TORNADO WARNING UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:49 PM MDT TUESDAY 19 JULY 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= SPECIAL AREA 2 NEAR SPONDIN AND SCAPA =NEW= SPECIAL AREA 4 NEAR HEMARUKA WISTE AND MONITOR CREEK SPECIAL AREA 2 NEAR HANNA AND RICHDALE SPECIAL AREA 3 NEAR YOUNGSTOWN. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 7:40 PM DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A ROTATING THUNDERSTORM 20 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF HANNA. THIS THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO AND IS MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD AT 50 KM/H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 6000+ CAPE. Usually that means if the cap breaks it goes linear, otherwise nothing. No, not quite. As Jpeters mentioned it definitely isn't a rule by any stretch at all. High CAPE alone does not = linear mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Some of the SPC parameters are just wrong... supercell composite of 82 in MN... 9000 SBCAPE in ND... 7500 MLCAPE in ND... 3 km EHI of 16 in MN the sup comp only maxes to 66...and is at a 50 right now in western WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Well the whole complex is moving SE, but the movement is so slow I'm not sure if it will ever get here. It's weird with the storms being aligned parallel to the movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Well the whole complex is moving SE, but the movement is so slow I'm not sure if it will ever get here. It's weird with the storms being aligned parallel to the movement. Looks like the are initiating along that instability gradient, which is oriented parallel to their motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Starting to see the outflow out ahead of the reflectivity gradient, which is obviously less than ideal for super strong winds. But it does look as if the outflow aligns with the leading edge in Wood County, Wisconsin, so I would expect the strongest winds there right now. Still some good wind signatures aloft with the western portion of the line (60 kt at 6kft). Great environment ahead of it if things can reorganize though. MUCAPE sitting at 8000 J/kg, with sufficient low level shear and storm relative winds to balance that outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 I have a friend reporting a tornado (probably a funnel cloud) in East Peoria, IL or very close to there. I'm unsure if it touched down or not. Conveniently enough KILX's radar is down... Peoria Journal-Star story on this evening's funnel clouds near Washington, IL and East Peoria--which prompted the sirens to go off in both cities: http://www.pjstar.com/free/x1009561571/Funnel-cloud-spotted-near-Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 Peoria Journal-Star story on this evening's funnel clouds near Washington, IL and East Peoria--which prompted the sirens to go off in both cities: http://www.pjstar.co...near-Washington The latest ILX storm report also lists that funnel clouds were also spotted in McLean County (near the towns of Downs and Cooksville, E of Bloomington/Normal) and Vermilion County (near Oakwood and Catlin, or west of Danville). Plus heavy rain in Paris, IL (Edgar County)--the ILX storm total radar showing a speck of 5 inches near Paris. http://www.crh.noaa....on=1&glossary=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I just want some rain right now. If the rains maintain their intensity, we could get a good inch or two tonight; unlikely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The latest ILX storm report also lists that funnel clouds were also spotted in McLean County (near the towns of Downs and Cooksville, E of Bloomington/Normal) and Vermilion County (near Oakwood and Catlin, or west of Danville). Plus heavy rain in Paris, IL (Edgar County)--the ILX storm total radar showing a speck of 5 inches near Paris. http://www.crh.noaa....on=1&glossary=0 That one in the article sure looked like a big funnel cloud (halfway down rule? ) Also a great time to point out that's why it is silly to call these "cold air funnels." As it clearly had nothing to do with cold air today. High instability coupled with a boundary is enough to stretch that horizontal vorticity into a funnel, but the lack of shear throughout the column leads to a small chance of touchdown and a weak one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The complex of storms in WI continues to strengthen as it pushes southeast. I'm trying hard to not get my hopes up but if it looks good in a few hours it will be hard not to get excited. Big difference from last night is that we have a good cold pool on tonight's complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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