cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The outflow is getting well out ahead of that cell southwest of Fond Du Lac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The outflow is getting well out ahead of that cell southwest of Fond Du Lac. I'm not sure this cell is going to do much, let alone blow up into a MCS/derecho, but I've been wrong plenty of times before. What was the HRRR showing for the hours prior to dragging that bowing line through Milwaukee and the Chicago metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I'm not sure this cell is going to do much, let alone blow up into a MCS/derecho, but I've been wrong plenty of times before. What was the HRRR showing for the hours prior to dragging that bowing line through Milwaukee and the Chicago metro? Yeah it's not taking off very good at all yet. If they can hold together and make it further south maybe the LLJ kicking in will reinvigorate them. Definitely not as confident about it as I was a bit earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I think Rockford has a better chance of seeing storms than Chicago, as the current storms should at least make it into the area as run of the mill showers/t'storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I'm not sure this cell is going to do much, let alone blow up into a MCS/derecho, but I've been wrong plenty of times before. What was the HRRR showing for the hours prior to dragging that bowing line through Milwaukee and the Chicago metro? Hi res models and the hrrr have been too aggressive all day. Not exactly sure why, cap, lack of forcing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Watching the ring of fire this evening Love those loops. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Hi res models and the hrrr have been too aggressive all day. Not exactly sure why, cap, lack of forcing? cap, lack of forcing, subsidence. A nice s/w would of helped alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 ND has to be getting sick of these large discrete supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 storms tonight to storms You are probably in the minority on this board. Move to MKE if you hate them so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Stop the weenie posts guys. If you have nothing that adds to the discussion don't post please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The storms in SC Wisconsin are now forming kind of an outflow boundary and starting to push southwest towards Bowme of all people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Doesn't seem like there will be much relief for awhile as well... I'm surprised that ND cell has no tor warning on it. Edit: Nvm... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 730 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN SIOUX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 800 PM MDT * AT 726 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THUNDER HAWK...OR 11 MILES EAST OF LEMMON... AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SIOUX COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...SUPERCELLS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Doesn't seem like there will be much relief for awhile as well... I'm surprised that ND cell has no tor warning on it. There is a tor on it...it is embedded within the severe. But yeah, it is going to remain very active up there. EC continues the threat of multiple significant waves passing over the mean ridge through the Dakotas into MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 0-1km helicity up to 300 in ne IL...sig tor up to 5 in se WI...boy, if that cap manages to break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Has a nicely developed hook echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Just updated my output for the Chicago area looking at main threat to be convective winds around 56kts, hail size potential around 1/2". Indices in this area showing LI's -5, ML CAPE's around 3100 j/kg. Output viewable http://smartwxmodel.net/KORD.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 But yeah, it is going to remain very active up there. EC continues the threat of multiple significant waves passing over the mean ridge through the Dakotas into MN. It could become even more interesting due to the weakening of the ridge. Minnesota could get into the action as well several times in the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 0-1km helicity up to 300 in ne IL...sig tor up to 5 in se WI...boy, if that cap manages to break! Nice cell just popped up Se of Madison.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 0-1km helicity up to 300 in ne IL...sig tor up to 5 in se WI...boy, if that cap manages to break! A storm just exploded E of Madison. Maybe it will become severe soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 0z ABR sounding, east-southeast of the ND supercell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Nice cell just popped up Se of Madison.. A storm just exploded E of Madison. Maybe it will become severe soon. Up to 63kft on the latest scan from KLOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Storms keep popping off outflow boundaries but crap the bed shrtly after without developing a real cold pool, we'll see if this is the real deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Storms keep popping off outflow boundaries but crap the bed shrtly after without developing a real cold pool, we'll see if this is the real deal This ridge, the cap & the northwest flow around the furnace = the real deal. Looking at the orientation of the storm on the radar, you can tell just from its shape that it'll eventually get blown apart to the southeast like the rest of them have all day. But, like I said... I've been wrong plenty before. Edit: Likely short-lived, but there may be a bit of rotation to that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Storms keep popping off outflow boundaries but crap the bed shrtly after without developing a real cold pool, we'll see if this is the real deal Outflow already pushing southwest away from the cell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 If that cell in WI maintains and really busts the cap, there could be a strong-violent tornado with it. 0-1km SRH has jumped to over 300J/kg ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Nice cell just popped up Se of Madison.. Been looking at that anvil now for the past few minutes from the deck. Just a hint of twilight providing some nice view at the structure. I did end up driving back from Janesville with my tail between my legs, but did get some cool time lapse material of clouds boiling for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 And the cap is going to likely win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0906 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...LOWER LAKE MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661... VALID 190206Z - 190300Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661 CONTINUES. CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DECREASED ACROSS MUCH OF WW661...POSSIBLY DUE TO COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HOWEVER...A NEW STRONG UPDRAFT HAS EMERGED OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SRN WI JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND LAKE BREEZE. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO EXTREME NRN IL ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. IF THIS OCCURS GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Props to the nws offices and spc keeping pops low despite aggresive models and impressive parameters. Maybe the llj does the trick overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 And the cap is going to likely win... Yep its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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