wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 most of the wrfs i've seen bring a complex or two through the region. I'm just being facetious. It's probably a weenie for me, given this summer's climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Normally I would cheer for a svr MCS to slide se down my way to Michiana but I don't want to lose power with the days of searing heat in the current forecast. Will be watching the storms in northern WI and the CU field that Alek mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Sort of a nice line/cluster of storms getting their act together just west of detroit. Is this leftovers/firing up from the complex last night in the dakotas? Just hoping we get some heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The high-res models and the RUC are SCARY for nrn IL/srn WI this evening...if we get deep initiation there will be much hell to pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The high-res models and the RUC are SCARY for nrn IL/srn WI this evening...if we get deep initiation there will be much hell to pay. Did you copy and paste the same comment from Sat evening? j/k. I'm surprised then that TOR probs from SPC are 2%. Is wind going to be the main threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The high-res models and the RUC are SCARY for nrn IL/srn WI this evening...if we get deep initiation there will be much hell to pay. They all seem very quick to develope convection, hard to discount it when that's the case. Svr parameters are on the upswing again following a lull from this morning and our trigger is making it's way south. Just gonna have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Did you copy and paste the same comment from Sat evening? j/k. I'm surprised then that TOR probs from SPC are 2%. Is wind going to be the main threat? Probably but I wouldn't hinge a bet on it. Explosive setup in place really. Current mesoanalysis has MLCAPE of 5500J/kg in SW WI w/0-1km SRH of 200J/kg and 0-6km shear of 30-40kt. Moisture convergence is increasing in the vicinity of the building Cu field and that may be where things go berserk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Think I'll get any action in the Wisconsin Dells tonight besides nookie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo9 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The high-res models and the RUC are SCARY for nrn IL/srn WI this evening...if we get deep initiation there will be much hell to pay. Well... This could be fun... I'm preying that nothing happens... and i am going to find a Coke Slurpee to drink soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The high-res models and the RUC are SCARY for nrn IL/srn WI this evening...if we get deep initiation there will be much hell to pay. Any links? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The high-res models and the RUC are SCARY for nrn IL/srn WI this evening...if we get deep initiation there will be much hell to pay. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Going by LOT aviation update, they're not expecting anything until late tonight, not sure i totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Going by LOT aviation update, they're not expecting anything until late tonight, not sure i totally agree. They're probably assuming the convection you'll be getting will be from the N Wisconsin storms, which would probably not make it there until 9 or 10. Good chance something else pops further south, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Interesting. Broken image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Got a meh storm here earlier...30 mph wind gusts and tropical downpours. Typical summer storm...I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 How favorable is the environment just ahead of those storms drifting into central Wisconsin? Those will likely affect the likes ey of Fon du Lac, Milwaukee, and Chicago if they hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Report of a van and pickup thrown a half mile... http://www.wday.com/...ticle/id/49294/ Yeah. Big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 LaMoure County tornado rated EF3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 TOG with this cell in SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wow, I'm surprised we got some storms after all. They had some strange orientation to them looking at the radar though. I was on my way home from work and got caught in them. I was heading out of downtown at Harper and Gratiot (other Detroit members know where that's at) and easily had 50 to 60 MPH winds (before the rain). The debris alone (blowing in a straight-line) was reducing visibilites well below a mile. The storm clouds the entire time were quite ominous too. I'm also glad we made it to 95*F before the storms. Great summer day after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wow, I'm surprised we got some storms after all. They had some strange orientation to them looking at the radar though. I was on my way home from work and got caught in them. I was heading out of downtown at Harper and Gratiot (other Detroit members know where that's at) and easily had 50 to 60 MPH winds (before the rain). The debris alone (blowing in a straight-line) was reducing visibilites well below a mile. The storm clouds the entire time were quite ominous too. I'm also glad we made it to 95*F before the storms. Great summer day after all. Yeah it was a weird looking line for sure. Now something else trying to get going near Lansing...although it looks to track southwest of both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Gonna make for an interesting late evening in Michiana if HRRR is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yeah it was a weird looking line for sure. Now something else trying to get going near Lansing...although it looks to track southwest of both of us. Yeah, I doubt we see anything else today, but the sun is back out. It should heat back up nicely before sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 DVN ATMOSPHERE WAS CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHEAST IA. MORE STORMS WERE FIRING IN NORTHERN WI IN THE WEAK CAP REGIME. SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THAT CAME OUT OF THE ROCKIES WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST MN. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 80S WERE POOLING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY WITH CAPES AS HIGH AS 7000 J/KG IN SOUTHWEST MN. CAPES WERE 6000 J/KG IN CENTRAL IA BUT ATMOSPHERE WAS STRONGLY CAPPED. TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS ATMOSPHERE IS CAPPED AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO OUR NORTH. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOWING MIXED SIGNALS WITH THE RAPID REFRESH/GFS INDICATING A LINE OF DAMAGING STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE ECM DRY. SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGH CAPES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IF CAP BREAKS. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT THEN A DESTRUCTIVE DERECHO WITH WINDS OVER 100 MPH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA. IF THE CAP HOLDS THEN WE WILL REMAIN DRY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 You can always count on dvn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 hot off the newest run of the HRRR, it has the storms currently up in northern/central WI and brings then southward into northern IL by late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Appleton's about to get hit for the 3rd time in 24 hours. This line actually is looking like it is making a beeline toward the area. It will have to survive the cool waters of Lake Winnebago, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yeah, I doubt we see anything else today, but the sun is back out. It should heat back up nicely before sunset. Yeah...it won't hit anyone on this forum but that is one heck of a storm affecting Ingham/Livingston counties right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 LaMoure County tornado rated EF3. Here is the PNS for that if anyone is interested. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201107182145-KBIS-NOUS43-PNSBIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.