Hoosier Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 this was from the 21z RUC valid for 22z...overdone ofcourse but never have I seen it forecast 14,000 j/kg of SBCAPE before (in southeast ND) Crazy. The environment today was almost reminiscent of some of those Bangladesh events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This sounds potentially violent... http://www.valleynew...se-north-dakota That thing was absolutely beastly, no surprise at the damage reports here. It looked eerily similar to the Yazoo City EF4 at one point. Saturday is looking significant with a rather strong negatively-tilted trough cutting across the Canadian Praries. 2500-4500 J/kg of CAPE, 40-60 kts of 0-6 km shear and rather minimal capping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 heckofa lightning show with that storm just to my nw...MPX has t-storm warning & urban/small stream flood advisory for parts of my county with 60+ winds & 2"+ rain with that storm...should hit here around 11:30. I've been watching this lightning show all the way from mankato for the past couple hours, should see the storm die out right over Mankato..not quite so favorable down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I've been watching this lightning show all the way from mankato for the past couple hours, should see the storm die out right over Mankato..not quite so favorable down here! I just realized the area experiencing the thunderstorm (Hutchinson) was 83/81 shortly after midnight. Dew points in the 80s after midnight in Minnesota seems insane to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I am anticipating getting clipped by first derecho since July 13-15th, 1995 derechoes. That thing in northern Michigan looks like a derecho and possibly might glance Toronto here. Surprised by the lack of Michigan posters, might hit Detroit area too.....wait and see i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I am anticipating getting clipped by first derecho since July 13-15th, 1995 derechoes. That thing in northern Michigan looks like a derecho and possibly might glance Toronto here. Surprised by the lack of Michigan posters, might hit Detroit area too.....wait and see i guess. Already running out of gas to the north. Note the lack of warnings, also instability is barely into the area atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I've been watching this lightning show all the way from mankato for the past couple hours, should see the storm die out right over Mankato..not quite so favorable down here! it fizzled some as it got to my area but still some nice lightning to my se now, 0.08 for rain & 30+ winds here...dew points have dropped temporarily into the low 70's from the 80's a couple hrs ago so it feels quite nice outside now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Lack of a decent cold pool on the MN storms and the fact they are weakening tells me they will likely not be major inhibitors to anything tomorrow. Nay, instead my bet is we get a washed-up outflow boundary from the stuff up N to come slowly down the lake and sparking supercells evolving possibly into an MCS by late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Lack of a decent cold pool on the MN storms and the fact they are weakening tells me they will likely not be major inhibitors to anything tomorrow. Nay, instead my bet is we get a washed-up outflow boundary from the stuff up N to come slowly down the lake and sparking supercells evolving possibly into an MCS by late evening. as long as they wait till after 5pm tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 haha, nice, I see more than two of us saved a bunch of mesoanalysis images from today's storm. I also get a habit now to grab the closest stations RUC soundings from the area, or use coordinates. RUC Soundings are like 'archived' for 24 hours. One I pulled up from that tornado had 13,205 CAPE at 22z...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Rather widespread 5% tornado probs there. Interested to see the next day 3, considering the day 4 outlook from earlier today. Also, if Derek is anywhere out there, I would prepare for a possible chase on Wednesday. This week could get pretty active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Lack of a decent cold pool on the MN storms and the fact they are weakening tells me they will likely not be major inhibitors to anything tomorrow. Nay, instead my bet is we get a washed-up outflow boundary from the stuff up N to come slowly down the lake and sparking supercells evolving possibly into an MCS by late evening. Good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Although I'm glad the MCS weakened, it's going to take most of the day to undo its damage in terms of the subsidence/cold pool, even based on the bullish RUC. EDIT: Assuming we're able to undo the damage, the focus may have shifted into Northern IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Although I'm glad the MCS weakened, it's going to take most of the day to undo its damage in terms of the subsidence/cold pool, even based on the bullish RUC. Load the gun for later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Load the gun for later this evening. Don't hold your breath. Good news is skies are clearing out rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Don't hold your breath. Good news is skies are clearing out rapidly. I'm fine either way, but I know there is a front still to the north with a speed max at 500mb and instability is forecasted to shift Eastward. I certainly wouldn't rule out the potential at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I'm more concerned about moisture transport being disrupted if those storms in SW Wisconsin intensify. That's the main thing that worries me about today, otherwise I think this could be a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I'm more concerned about moisture transport being disrupted if those storms in SW Wisconsin intensify. That's the main thing that worries me about today, otherwise I think this could be a good event. Yes, that's another worry too. Though it would be disrupted to an extent anyway because of the outflow effects, but at least without an MCS in Wisconsin it won't be disrupted as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I'm more concerned about moisture transport being disrupted if those storms in SW Wisconsin intensify. That's the main thing that worries me about today, otherwise I think this could be a good event. The last run of the NMM blew them up into a bow which pushes due south into Illinois and there is a new MD out for the area. These things have failed to develope a nice cold pool so far and i'm not sure they will any time soon. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN...CNTRL AND SRN WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 181130Z - 181330Z STORM TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO SERN MN/WRN WI IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED WITH PARCELS ORIGINATING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB. PLENTY OF MOISTURE EXISTS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH NWLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT WHICH IN COMBINATION COULD YIELD A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS SHOULD A COLD POOL BECOME ORGANIZED. THESE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AS THEY TRAVEL SEWD ACROSS THE 700 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE SE. IF STORMS CAN PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEY MAY ENJOY A BOOST FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND BECOME SEVERE AS THEY PROPAGATE IN A GENERAL SEWD DIRECTION. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I'm fine either way, but I know there is a front still to the north with a speed max at 500mb and instability is forecasted to shift Eastward. I certainly wouldn't rule out the potential at all. Oh I agree the potential is there, but if life were dependent on purely potential (which isn't even half the battle) then it would be pretty miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Just looked around the meso page and i can see why the MD was issued, impressive early morning numbers across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, lots of dynamics to play with, especially by early morning July standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Just looked around the meso page and i can see why the MD was issued, impressive early morning numbers across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, lots of dynamics to play with, especially by early morning July standards. Yeah already 3000j/kg of mixed layer cape over much of northern Illinois. Supercell and sig tor values already impressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 New day 1 looks slightly expanded in all directions. Still watching those cells fester over Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 haha, nice, I see more than two of us saved a bunch of mesoanalysis images from today's storm. I also get a habit now to grab the closest stations RUC soundings from the area, or use coordinates. RUC Soundings are like 'archived' for 24 hours. One I pulled up from that tornado had 13,205 CAPE at 22z...lol Just a teaser, I'll post the vid on here as soon as he gets it up... said he couldn't see the other side of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 update from Izzi VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST AS STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TOSUPPORT INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WEAK FORCING MAKES IDENTIFYING FEATURES THAT WILL SPARK THUNDERSTORMS DIFFICULT. THIS COMPLICATES TIMING ANY POTENTIAL TSRA CHANCES. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN AREA OF TSRA BLOSSOM EAST OF MSP FROM THE REMNANTS OF TSRA CLUSTER THAT WAS WEST OF MSP SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE DURING THE PAST HOUR CONFIDENCE IS GROWING...THOUGH STILL NOT HUGE...THAT A FAST MOVING LINE OF INTENSE TSRA COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. REALLY WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT GOING WITH A TEMPO IN THE TAFS OR NOT...BUT GIVEN THE RAPID UPSWING IN INTENSITY HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO TO GIVE A GREATER HEADS UP TO WHAT COULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WX EVENT MIDDAY. SHOULD SEE A SIZABLE BREAK IN TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE CHANCES BEGIN RAMPING BACK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS FURTHER DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT BACK DOORS INTO THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Severe t'storm watch now in effect here, although it looks like the most intense cell will pass off to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Severe t'storm watch now in effect here, although it looks like the most intense cell will pass off to the north. storm motion turns more and more southerly as you head east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 That WI complex at present could lay down some nice boundaries for later this evening in northern IL as it moves se. Tor prob today will be higher than I thought they would be yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 That WI complex at present could lay down some nice boundaries for later this evening in northern IL as it moves se. Tor prob today will be higher than I thought they would be yesterday. not sure if it's because of the cold outflow from the tops of the storms in Wisconsin but weak showers to the south seem to be taking off, could complicate things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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