Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 SPC's Day 3 outlook for Friday shows the Northern Plains in the crosshairs again: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Going to be quite a bit of northern tier action in this period as the ridge expands. Should see some hefty MCS activity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Decent MCS in Eastern ND/Western MN right now with a strong supercell to the south near Fergus Falls. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 512 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL WILKIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... EAST CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 600 AM CDT * AT 509 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF DWIGHT...OR 6 MILES WEST OF WAHPETON... MOVING TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH. * THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... WAHPETON AND BRECKENRIDGE AROUND 520 AM CDT. DORAN AROUND 530 AM CDT. EVERDELL AROUND 535 AM CDT. FOXHOME AROUND 540 AM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO THE SAFEST PLACE IS A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A STAIRWAY OR A PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Liking my chances for some MCS activity tomorrow night. Could also get some severe storms here on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Nice bowing segment developing in southern Minnesota. A cluster of storms formed a bookend vortex on the northern flank (near Mankato), which fostered the development of a nice rear inflow jet about 15 minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Nice bowing segment developing in southern Minnesota. A cluster of storms formed a bookend vortex on the northern flank (near Mankato), which fostered the development of a nice rear inflow jet about 15 minutes later. MD out for that stuff...and pretty impressive tops on the southern MN storms. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NEB...SRN MN...NRN IA...SW WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 151921Z - 152115Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT MAY REQUIRE A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SOUTH OF REDWOOD FALLS. THIS APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE/CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BETWEEN NOW AND 23-00Z. LAPSE RATES ARE NO LONGER PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WITH LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OR PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE PRESENCE OF A MODESTLY SHEARED 20-30 KT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY...NEAR THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER NORTHWARD THROUGH MANKATO AND THE ROCHESTER AREA. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING APPEAR THE MORE PROMINENT THREATS AS FAR EAST AS PERHAPS LA CROSSE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA... INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF OMAHA NEBRASKA. ..KERR.. 07/15/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Nice bowing segment developing in southern Minnesota. A cluster of storms formed a bookend vortex on the northern flank (near Mankato), which fostered the development of a nice rear inflow jet about 15 minutes later. Just got done with work here in Mankato was operating a front loader in some wicked lightning and torrential rain, this thing basically just exploded over us. Some of the most impressive lightning I've seen so far this year and pretty much my first hometown thunderstorm of the year. Including this mornings rain we have just over 2 inches which both storms only lasted 30 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Just got done with work here in Mankato was operating a front loader in some wicked lightning and torrential rain, this thing basically just exploded over us. Some of the most impressive lightning I've seen so far this year and pretty much my first hometown thunderstorm of the year. Including this mornings rain we have just over 2 inches which both storms only lasted 30 minutes! PWATs pushing 2.2" will dump a ton of rain on you in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 echo tops on the MN/IA border pushing 63kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 do like the look of the instability axis/gradients northwest-southeast starting sunday-next week...get a nice outflow boundary from previous nights storms and a decent s/w rounding the top of the ridge to blow up a nice southeast bound MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 echo tops on the MN/IA border pushing 63kft. Some serious back building going on with that MCS now. St. Ansgar in Mitchell County, Minnesota has done 1.54" in 1 hour, 2.83" in 2 hour and 4.25" in 2.5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Right over my house, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Tornado watch in effect for central/eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Supercells likely to develop in the next few hours. Got a severe thunderstorm watch here in southern Manitoba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 We may see a dangerous tornado or two this evening across the eastern half of ND. MLCAPE of 3500-5000J/kg along a boundary with 150J/kg 0-1km SRH and 40kt of 0-6km shear with a building Cu field at this time. That combo of CAPE and shear would allow a discrete supercell to produce a pretty intense tornado given LCLs of 750-1000m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Tony, do you think I'm too far north here in southern Manitoba for severe storms? HRRR runs have been keeping convection south of the International border through tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Cell north of Regan, ND already up to 63kft with a developing meso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 There it goes, just north of Bismarck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 do like the look of the instability axis/gradients northwest-southeast starting sunday-next week...get a nice outflow boundary from previous nights storms and a decent s/w rounding the top of the ridge to blow up a nice southeast bound MCS Cosign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Cell north of Regan, ND already up to 63kft with a developing meso. Yeah you beat me to it, that thing went up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Cell north of Regan, ND already up to 63kft with a developing meso. That cell is going to be extremely dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Wow did that thing go up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Yeah you beat me to it, that thing went up fast. That cell is going to be extremely dangerous. Being latched on to that boundary and with the environment it's in, the potential is that as Tony previously mentioned. Obvervation off to the east in Carrington is 86/81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Already a TOG, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Wow...that thing already split, now it has an appendage already. Good call Tony... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Being latched on to that boundary and with the environment it's in, the potential is that as Tony previously mentioned. Obvervation off to the east in Carrington is 86/81. Nasty stuff. I have a friend out there chasing, hopefully he can get on that soon. He is still way out east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 New storm may be initiating near Devils Lake. Might need to get in my car pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Mr. Patrick Ayd, good friend I graduated with, issued the tor warning on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 CoD reported a tornado with the supercell northeast of BIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 New storm may be initiating near Devils Lake. Might need to get in my car pretty soon. Definitely could be a chase tonight. Best of luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Cosign ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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