Ellinwood Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Looking at vis sat and radar before bed time... not looking too good for tomorrow. We'll definitely have our work cut out for us unless something drastically changes overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Looking at vis sat and radar before bed time... not looking too good for tomorrow. We'll definitely have our work cut out for us unless something drastically changes overnight. Party pooper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Looking at vis sat and radar before bed time... not looking too good for tomorrow. We'll definitely have our work cut out for us unless something drastically changes overnight. Lets send special planes through the clouds to clear us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Looking at vis sat and radar before bed time... not looking too good for tomorrow. We'll definitely have our work cut out for us unless something drastically changes overnight. I don't think it looks any/significantly worse than models that still look decent for tomorrow would suggest. I'm sort of confused on the specific torn mention b/c this is mainly a n/w flow event as modeled. I'm sure there are some instances of a tornado around here with a big fat closed 500 low to our northeast but it's not the typical setup. We need a good short wave and it would be advantageous for it to help clear us a bit in the morning by slightly shifting the flow, one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'll take the under on tor's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Today was the 19th day of 90+ at my house this year. But 12 of those have come in the last 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 im having second thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 im having second thoughts I dislike you right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 im having second thoughts Why is that? Clouds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Sprinkling The most exciting wx I've seen in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 I don't think it looks any/significantly worse than models that still look decent for tomorrow would suggest. I'm sort of confused on the specific torn mention b/c this is mainly a n/w flow event as modeled. I'm sure there are some instances of a tornado around here with a big fat closed 500 low to our northeast but it's not the typical setup. We need a good short wave and it would be advantageous for it to help clear us a bit in the morning by slightly shifting the flow, one way or another. TOR mention is because most of the column is/was forecast to be veering with height, with most of the turning in the low/mid levels. Models can't decide on what to do with tomorrow... 4-km WRF seems to think that we can still pull something off. Tomorrow will be interesting/frustrating to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Batch of showers/imbedded heavier rains flared up, fingers crossed, need the rain badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Its going to be tough to destabilize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Looking at sat i see two promising trends.. warming clouds and dryer air flowing in from the n/nw.. thats at least positive.. off for workout in 8 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Lightning to the west, probably going south though, still nice. Edit: Grlevel3 shows 50+mph winds in the deeper convection, but the tops are very low, so I'd assume the microburst risk is low as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Wow, maybe a good omen for today? Already a Severe T-storm Warning out heading straightfor DCA-South. Also seeing frequent lightning out west as well. AT 558 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE PLAINS TO THE PLAINS...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HAYMARKET... ARCOLA... BRAMBLETON... DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... SOUTH RIDING... BULL RUN... MANASSAS... CENTREVILLE... HERNDON... CHANTILLY... Someone's getting pwned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Wow Outflow gust of 37mph, temp of 77 now, light drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Wow Outflow gust of 37mph, temp of 77 now, light drizzle. Got some of the outflow winds here, too... around 25 mph gusts based on the trees blowing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Haven't looked at anything, so purely non-scientific, but it just "feels" like one of those good days outside. And man were those raindrops warm this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 76 with overcast skies here. Nothing hitting the ground as of yet. This may be the first day in quite sometime that I have to tell my girls no swimming today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Haven't looked at anything, so purely non-scientific, but it just "feels" like one of those good days outside. And man were those raindrops warm this morning. LWX mentions the system as "Autumn-like", and that Convection should fire despite lack of good sunshine. Wouldv'e traded the gusts in for those raindrops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Sprinkling out now. Just went out to bring in the sprinkler that I left out last night, and the grass feels like we may have gotten a decent amount in the early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Quick heavy rain shower here in Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 That line blew up too far east for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Anybody know where I can get archive radar for Cecil County from last night? I was down at the in-laws house on the eastern shore of the Bay and we got a real nice storm at 1 am......would love to see what it looked like on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Anybody know where I can get archive radar for Cecil County from last night? I was down at the in-laws house on the eastern shore of the Bay and we got a real nice storm at 1 am......would love to see what it looked like on the radar. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/ you will have to play around with the time and stuff, but that should help you out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 As I headed out the door at about 6:35, the skies opened up. Absolute downpour with really strong winds for a few minutes. Nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Sprinkling out now. Just went out to bring in the sprinkler that I left out last night, and the grass feels like we may have gotten a decent amount in the early morning hours. best "rain" that we have had in north Frederick in a while. Even those storms the other night missed by half a mile. Wife just called to ask if she should turn on the sprinklers this morning, it was a relief to say no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Name that shadow: MODERATE NWLY MID LVL OVER THE OH VLY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO SUSTAINED CLUSTERS/BANDS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING MARGINAL SUPERCELLS. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT GIVEN RICH MOISTURE...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. CLOUDS FROM MORNING MCS...AND THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...WILL LIMIT LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION OVER NRN VA/MD/DE AND PA/NJ. BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND PRESENCE OF SFC WAVE...AT LEAST LOW SVR PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED IN THOSE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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