Ellinwood Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Tomorrow looks a tad interesting after reading the SPC and LWX discos Took a look... could be interesting if morning clouds/rain can hold off. Low-level winds are good via the latest NAM, mid-level shear is meh... decent upper-level support as well. Nice little 700mb jet streak over the region helping us out. Will have to watch the mid-level lapse rates for improvement as they are only looking decent at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 90 at DCA at 11 am. Some cooldown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 A couple photos from yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Sequence of Storm Photos from yesterday afternoon around 4pm: Add: pictures are a tad big....view them all on my blog: http://www.weatherwarrior.net/blog/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 small Slight risk area for tommorrow spc says amount of cloud cover will the thing to watch for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN CVRG WED MID-MRNG...UPWARD TREND IN CVRGOF SHWRS AND TSTMS XPCD WED AFTN AS UPR TROF APRCHS. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY TMW IS ON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. IF BREAKS IN CLDS CAN DVLP...INSTBY WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...AND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND PSBLTY OF SVR WX. DMGG WIND GUSTS ARE PSBL...WITH A DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. BUT IF CLD CVR IS THICKER...PSBLTY OF SVR WX WILL BE A BIT MORE LMTD. Tornado mention from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 94 in the shade currently, it actually feels nice. Can't believe I'm saying that. A couple photos from yesterday: Very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Tornado mention from LWX Wind field is nice Will have to watch LCLs in addition to the cloud cover/instability if we want anything to touch down. Fairly certain I'll be chasing tomorrow unless it looks like complete crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Wind field is nice Will have to watch LCLs in addition to the cloud cover/instability if we want anything to touch down. Fairly certain I'll be chasing tomorrow unless it looks like complete crap. Well now that that's your plan it will probably be complete crap Seriously though - I hope we can get some nice destabilization in here - it's always something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Well now that that's your plan it will probably be complete crap Seriously though - I hope we can get some nice destabilization in here - it's always something. We're due I haven't chased since May 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I think the cloud cover/instability will be the thing to watch for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 definitely one of the better setups we've had in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 definitely one of the better setups we've had in a while. This is honestly one of the first times I have looked at something in depth since I've moved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 definitely one of the better setups we've had in a while. Saying this just to get us going? Then tomorrow you will meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 definitely one of the better setups we've had in a while. Ooh Ian likes. That's good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 This is honestly one of the first times I have looked at something in depth since I've moved... it's been pretty boring lately.. tho i guess that's typical of summer. pop ups that flood one area and leave everyone else dry. i guess y-day performed/overperformed but even that was relatively minor on the svr level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 it's been pretty boring lately.. tho i guess that's typical of summer. pop ups that flood one area and leave everyone else dry. i guess y-day performed/overperformed but even that was relatively minor on the svr level. So EF-5 tomorrow? That's your call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 So EF-5 tomorrow? That's your call Kind of a convoluted setup for tornadoes but I guess there could be a weak one somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Over/under for TOR-warned cells is 2 (looking at the number of individual cells... not the actual number of warnings). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Is it wishful thinking to think West of 95 may get something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I just want rain, I've been whiffed in the past 3 precip days. Actually had to do my first leaf blowing job of the season yesterday, haven't had to cut the grass in 5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Is it wishful thinking to think West of 95 may get something... ? - The slight risk extends far west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I just want rain, I've been whiffed in the past 3 precip days. Actually had to do my first leaf blowing job of the season yesterday, haven't had to cut the grass in 5 weeks. Ditto that! So seeing the radar is down for maintenance. Is it clouding up for anyone else, and is it just that cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Ditto that! So seeing the radar is down for maintenance. Is it clouding up for anyone else, and is it just that cloud cover. Overcast but nothing nearby it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Over/under for TOR-warned cells is 2 (looking at the number of individual cells... not the actual number of warnings). sounds about right tho it could easily be 0 if it's more an mcs type deal. but if there's one there will probably be 2, but doubtfully many more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Looking at vis sat and radar before bed time... not looking too good for tomorrow. We'll definitely have our work cut out for us unless something drastically changes overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Looking at vis sat and radar before bed time... not looking too good for tomorrow. We'll definitely have our work cut out for us unless something drastically changes overnight. Party pooper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Looking at vis sat and radar before bed time... not looking too good for tomorrow. We'll definitely have our work cut out for us unless something drastically changes overnight. Lets send special planes through the clouds to clear us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Looking at vis sat and radar before bed time... not looking too good for tomorrow. We'll definitely have our work cut out for us unless something drastically changes overnight. I don't think it looks any/significantly worse than models that still look decent for tomorrow would suggest. I'm sort of confused on the specific torn mention b/c this is mainly a n/w flow event as modeled. I'm sure there are some instances of a tornado around here with a big fat closed 500 low to our northeast but it's not the typical setup. We need a good short wave and it would be advantageous for it to help clear us a bit in the morning by slightly shifting the flow, one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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