wxmeddler Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I feel good now that the average daily max temperatures at DCA are dropping whew! Climo is my friend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 SLIGHT risk!!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 SLIGHT risk!!!! lol Yay! Now, how realistic is it that we actually see something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Mmmm... that's kind of exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Yay! Now, how realistic is it that we actually see something? Probably a .01 percent change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 LOL DC Split - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 We came back from a mini vacation and noted it was in the 90's every day while we were gone with no precip. The lawns have turned brown and crunchy and our Birch tree is dropping leaves like it's Fall since we left last Tuesday. NWS put an information statement about the July heat in Charleston. They make a note that it was unusual because we were not in the middle of a drought, though it seems to be in the making now in areas missed by the storms last week. ...HOTTEST JULY IN CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA IN 75 YEARS... PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AT CHARLESTON FOR JULY 2011 WAS 79.2 DEGREES. THIS EDGES OUT THE RELATIVELY RECENT JULY...BACK IN THE DROUGHT YEAR OF 1999...WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS JUST A TENTH OF A DEGREE LOWER. AS A RESULT...THE LAST TIME CHARLESTON HAD A HOTTER JULY WAS WAY BACK IN 1936. JULY 2011 BECOMES THE 6TH WARMEST JULY AT CHARLESTON. THE WARMEST JULY WAS BACK IN 1934 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 81.4 DEGREES...DURING THE DUST BOWL DECADE OF THE 1930S. THERE WERE 4 OTHER YEARS THAT HAD A HOTTER JULY...AND 3 OF THOSE ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE 1930S. THOSE HOTTER JULYS WERE ENDURED IN 1921...1930..1931...AND 1936. LUCKY FOR US...INDOOR AIR CONDITIONING PROVIDES RELIEF. THAT WAS NOT AN OPTION FOR FOLKS BACK THEN. WHEN CONSIDERING ALL THE MONTHS OF THE YEAR...JULY 2011 WAS THE 9TH HOTTEST MONTH ON RECORD AT CHARLESTON. IT IS UNUSUAL FOR THIS LEVEL OF HEAT TO BE ACHIEVED...WITHOUT THE AID OF A DROUGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Today will be a decent day for many. Source of lift. Instability. Slight Shear. Steep Lapse Rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Today will be a decent day for many. Source of lift. Instability. Slight Shear. Steep Lapse Rates. 'cept it's dry and LCLs are high. Winds may also show some backing with height in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 'cept it's dry and LCLs are high. Winds may also show some backing with height in the mid-levels. Well... I'd be a lot more worried about the LCL's if today had any shear. I don't think the amount of dry air is technically exceptional either. All aspects are not prime, but don't know if we need it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well... I'd be a lot more worried about the LCL's if today had any shear. I don't think the amount of dry air is technically exceptional either. All aspects are not prime, but don't know if we need it to be. Also, what qualifies as many? I guess the "Today will be a decent day for many" it what put up the red flags for me. I'm thinking about 30% coverage with isolated strong/severe myself, which I would consider to be less exciting than what your OP would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Also, what qualifies as many? I guess the "Today will be a decent day for many" it what put up the red flags for me. I'm thinking about 30% coverage with isolated strong/severe myself, which I would consider to be less exciting than what your OP would suggest. Oh I think 30-40% is a good number. Just have a different level of judgement I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Oh I think 30-40% is a good number. Just have a different level of judgement I guess. You will see (probably very quickly) that the 70% who don't get storms will make sure that the other 30% knows it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 You will see (probably very quickly) that the 70% who don't get storms will make sure that the other 30% knows it Believe me.. I have learned that here. The number will seem skewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Most that do get storms will probably have to wait until the late evening/early morning hours when the front gets here and generates new cells... storms forming up to the NW this afternoon will have a really tough time making it down the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Most that do get storms will probably have to wait until the late evening/early morning hours when the front gets here and generates new cells... storms forming up to the NW this afternoon will have a really tough time making it down the mountains. I think that debris from the earlier blowup is hurting any cu to our nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 meh I knew it! You couldn't resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 meh Ain't it the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 meso up for area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 meso up for area Ian you seeing this, LL lapse rates around 10 west of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Ian you seeing this, LL lapse rates around 10 west of DC Radar looks ok. Someone might lose a shingle or a tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Radar looks ok. Someone might lose a shingle or a tree. Probably Bethesda Boy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Probably Bethesda Boy... always a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I thought 30-40% of the board might be getting a storm.. still seems reasonable.. I think the risk for severe storms has increased.. after reading the MCD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I thought 30-40% of the board might be getting a storm.. still seems reasonable.. I think the risk for severe storms has increased.. after reading the MCD.. yea could be a good day for us, but excuse me how is PA not in a watch, they're having a big day up in CPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I thought 30-40% of the board might be getting a storm.. still seems reasonable.. I think the risk for severe storms has increased.. after reading the MCD.. yeah, no doubt the environment reacts to spc forecasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Haven't seen LL lapse rates of 10 C/KM before around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Haven't seen LL lapse rates of 10 C/KM before around here I have son, and let me tell you something, It wasn't pretty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 yeah, no doubt the environment reacts to spc forecasters Right because an amateur hobbiest's confidence isnt boosted when the spc posts an mcd proclaiming ww possible with possible widespread severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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