wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 6z run of GFDL says cold core 6z run of HWRF says warm core UKie says cold Is it right that it gets classified sub-tropically if it remains cold core? Looked liked the troff is already picking it up? @6z it was probably cold core, but organization and tightening these last 12 hours have probably helped warm the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Am I making an apples to appls comparison when I see mention of 63 triangular waves for the Canadian global versus a wave number over 500 for the Euro? What specifically are you referring to (model resolution), or where are you "seeing mention" of these values? Feel free to PM me if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 What specifically are you referring to (model resolution), or where are you "seeing mention" of these values? Feel free to PM me if you want. Just checked the 'about' pages at CMC and ECMWF. Wondering if the Canadian is that much lower in resolution based on the number of waves mentioned. The whole idea of 'spectral models' confuses me, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Just checked the 'about' pages at CMC and ECMWF. Wondering if the Canadian is that much lower in resolution based on the number of waves mentioned. The whole idea of 'spectral models' confuses me, really. I'm pretty sure the Canadian Global Model (GGEM) is actually a grid point model, run at 0.3 degree (lat) x 0.25 degree (lon) resolution, roughly corresponding to ~30-35km resolution in the extratropics. The ECMWF model is run at T1279 (triangular spectral truncation); which corresponds to a grid spacing of approximately 15 km (=/-) in the extratropics. I would need to dig some more to verify this is the most recent information (particularly for the canadian), but this should provide a rough idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The 12Z Euro suggests a weak disturbance crossing Hispaniola heading W... Edit to add the UKMET...same solution as the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Tropical Depression Three is here: BEGIN NHC_ATCFinvest_RENUMBER_al992011_al032011.ren BEST, 0, 345N, 547W, 30, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 invest_RENUMBER_al992011_al032011.ren 20-Jul-2011 18:55 1.3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Another Mexico threat end of the month? Verbatim, I don't see how this could make it to the US, but things can change in 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 SLPs had been very low these last few weeks, probably only comparable to 2010 and 2005 since 1950 or so. Other years with low, but not as low, SLPs are 1958, 1969 and 1995... If this means that 2011 will be similar to those five years (2010, 2005, 1995, 1969, and 1958), I wonder if the east coast (north of FL) will see fairly limited activity despite another potential big season in terms of total and strength of storms with strong storms that only either recurve offshore or only barely skirt the coast. In those five years (despite three of them being extremely active with 18+ storms), only three NS in those five seasons (only 0.6/season) could be considered actual center crossings (east coast north of FL) and all of those centers either only barely hit or skirted: Ophelia of 2005 (skirted NC), Gerda of 1969 (barely crossed the NE corner of ME), and Helene of 1958 (skirted NC). So, none of these five years had a hurricane or even a named storm plowing well inland into the U.S. like occurred in 2003 (Isabel), 1996 (Fran), 1989 (Hugo), 1985 (Gloria), 1979 (David), 1971 (Ginger), 1964 (Dora), 1960 (Donna), 1959 (Gracie), 1955 (Connie and Diane), 1954 (Hazel and Carol), 1952 (Able), 1947 (#8), 1944 (#3), 1940 (#3), 1938 (#4), 1933 (#8), 1916 (#4), 1913 (#4 and #5), 1911 (#3), 1906 (#5), 1904 (#2), 1903 (#4), 1899 (#8), 1898 (#2 and #7), 1893 (#4, #6, and #9), 1883 (#3), 1881 (#5), 1878 (#5 and #11), 1876 (#2), 1869 (#6 and #10), 1867 (#1), 1858 (#3), and 1854 (#3). So, it has been eight years since the last one (2003's Isabel). There have been more than eight years between well inland U.S. east coast (north of FL) hurricane hits only three times since 1851: 17 years (1916-33), 10 years (1883-1893), and nine years (1858-67). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 NHC is going with TS Cindy at 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 If this means that 2011 will be similar to those five years (2010, 2005, 1995, 1969, and 1958), I wonder if the east coast (north of FL) will see fairly limited activity despite another potential big season in terms of total and strength of storms with strong storms that only either recurve offshore or only barely skirt the coast. In those five years (despite three of them being extremely active with 18+ storms), only three NS in those five seasons (only 0.6/season) could be considered actual center crossings (east coast north of FL) and all of those centers either only barely hit or skirted: Ophelia of 2005 (skirted NC), Gerda of 1969 (barely crossed the NE corner of ME), and Helene of 1958 (skirted NC). So, none of these five years had a hurricane or even a named storm plowing well inland into the U.S. like occurred in 2003 (Isabel), 1996 (Fran), 1989 (Hugo), 1985 (Gloria), 1979 (David), 1971 (Ginger), 1964 (Dora), 1960 (Donna), 1959 (Gracie), 1955 (Connie and Diane), 1954 (Hazel and Carol), 1952 (Able), 1947 (#8), 1944 (#3), 1940 (#3), 1938 (#4), 1933 (#8), 1916 (#4), 1913 (#4 and #5), 1911 (#3), 1906 (#5), 1904 (#2), 1903 (#4), 1899 (#8), 1898 (#2 and #7), 1893 (#4, #6, and #9), 1883 (#3), 1881 (#5), 1878 (#5 and #11), 1876 (#2), 1869 (#6 and #10), 1867 (#1), 1858 (#3), and 1854 (#3). So, it has been eight years since the last one (2003's Isabel). There have been more than eight years between well inland U.S. east coast (north of FL) hurricane hits only three times since 1851: 17 years (1916-33), 10 years (1883-1893), and nine years (1858-67). Well it's July, and we are on the verge of having our third storm... with good signs of a fourth by the end of the month in models. This is not including the BOC storm that was probably borderline TD/TS and will likely be reanalyzed. I'd say we've had a fairly decent start up. Not as good as 2005 so far, of course, but very 1995ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 NHC is going with TS Cindy at 5. Huh? So far all I see is TD stuff: AL, 03, 2011072018, , BEST, 0, 345N, 547W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 100, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Huh? So far all I see is TD stuff: AL, 03, 2011072018, , BEST, 0, 345N, 547W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 100, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M, 000 WTNT23 KNHC 202036 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011 2100 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011 500 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED NORTH OF BERMUDA YESTERDAY HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...AND THUS THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM CINDY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A 35-KT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE OF 41 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/22. CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CINDY WILL PASS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24-26C FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COLDER WATER AND INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. CINDY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 96 HR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 35.2N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 37.1N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 39.9N 46.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 42.4N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 22/1800Z 45.4N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1800Z 52.5N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 sweet---ET by hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 sweet---ET by hr 36 But even in it's lameness, it beats Bret attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 But even in it's lameness, it beats Bret attm. at least there is the apocalypse wave at 40W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 lol three named storms, and ACE won't even be up to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 lol three named storms, and ACE won't even be up to 5 ASO will take care of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 at least there is the apocalypse wave at 40W Shredderola would like a word with it to set things straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I see that nobody is brave enough to start a Cindy thread....don't blame you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I see that nobody is brave enough to start a Cindy thread....don't blame you! Poor Thindy (I really, really just needed to call her that). She's disenfranchised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I see that nobody is brave enough to start a Cindy thread....don't blame you! 97L thread could end up longer, which would be a shameful record. But FWIW, it's stronger than 35kts, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 at least there is the apocalypse wave at 40W hater Shredderola would like a word with it to set things straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Here are my thoughts on Bret, What is now Tropical Storm Cindy, and the tropical wave out in the Atlantic. I believe Adam mentioned earlier there is a forecasted Kelvin wave that will be moving though the Western Atlantic during the time frame a lot of the models are showing genesis, so this wave certainly bears watching. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/20/bret-continues-to-fight-invest-99l-forms-other-threats-looming/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 lol three named storms, and ACE won't even be up to 5 which is why any comparison to pre-satellite era storm history is meaningless. Cindy would be extremely unlikely to be named in the past unless a ship was unlucky enough to be in the core path for the 18-24 hours she was alive. You could even make the case that the first two storms this year would have been problematic being classified 100 years ago. That is not to say that I disagree at all with the NHC. I am just making the comparison among eras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 which is why any comparison to pre-satellite era storm history is meaningless. Cindy would be extremely unlikely to be named in the past unless a ship was unlucky enough to be in the core path for the 18-24 hours she was alive. You could even make the case that the first two storms this year would have been problematic being classified 100 years ago. That is not to say that I disagree at all with the NHC. I am just making the comparison among eras. Dr. Neil Frank, former NHC head and retired chief met at our local CBS affiliate, KHOU-TV 11 (he did come out of retirement for Ike to help the new chief met, maybe he'd come back for the next big Texas threat, although he isn't a young man anymore and that could be decades away) suggested that the NHC in his day would not have classified some of the storms currently being classified, IIRC. I think he was talking exactly about the hybrid-ish short lived storms of non-tropical origin. Like Cindy. Not talking Bret. It started non-tropical, but the VDM 21Z on the 17th had 6º delta between the center and outside at 178 meters, which is definitely a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Dr. Neil Frank, former NHC head and retired chief met at our local CBS affiliate, KHOU-TV 11 (he did come out of retirement for Ike to help the new chief met, maybe he'd come back for the next big Texas threat, although he isn't a young man anymore and that could be decades away) suggested that the NHC in his day would not have classified some of the storms currently being classified, IIRC. I think he was talking exactly about the hybrid-ish short lived storms of non-tropical origin. Like Cindy. Not talking Bret. It started non-tropical, but the VDM 21Z on the 17th had 6º delta between the center and outside at 178 meters, which is definitely a tropical system. The Frank era was totally silly. 8 storms a year but 29 tropical depressions....yay! Give me the way we do it now over the way they did it then 24/7/365. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The Frank era was totally silly. 8 storms a year but 29 tropical depressions and neuter canes....yay! Give me the way we do it now over the way they did it then 24/7/365. Pre-1995, that wasn't Dr. Frank's fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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